Early Week 3 betting action favors the Raiders to win – and win big

Why bettors are betting against Carolina, and more Week 3 NFL betting insights.

The Las Vegas Raiders not only scored the NFL’s biggest Week 2 upset, they beat a Super Bowl contender that posted the league’s best record a season ago. And they did it on the road.

Now after kicking off the 2024 season with games on both coasts, the Raiders return to Sin City for their home opener. The opponent? The Carolina Panthers, who lost their first two contests by a combined 60 points — and subsequently benched their second-year starting quarterback.

Unsurprisingly, NFL bettors at one Las Vegas-based sportsbook have been loading up on the hometown team to crush Carolina since Week 3 point spreads were released. As a result, the Raiders have gone from the biggest Week 2 underdog to one of the biggest Week 3 favorites.

Here’s a look at the teams that have drawn the bulk of the early NFL point-spread action heading into Week 3, as well as the most-bet totals and notable betting splits information.

Bettors aggressively back the Silver and Black

The Raiders have long preached the franchise mantra “Commitment to Excellence.” They just haven’t often practiced it on the field.

Last Sunday certainly was an exception, though. A week after a 22-10 loss to the Chargers in Los Angeles, the Raiders hit the highway again, this time traveling to Baltimore. 

Las Vegas took the field as an 8.5-point underdog, faced second-half deficits of 16-6 and 23-13, and appeared on its way to a second straight double-digit defeat. Then the Raiders righted their pirate ship, closed on a 13-0 run and pulled out a stunning 26-23 victory.

At the same time Las Vegas was mounting its comeback, the Panthers were getting waxed 26-3 by the Chargers — a miserable result that followed a season-opening 47-10 thumping in New Orleans.

With those outcomes in the can, Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas on Sunday night opened the Raiders as a whopping 7-point home favorite for their Week 3 matchup against Carolina. 

By Tuesday afternoon, the point spread had actually dropped to Las Vegas -5.5 — but not because SuperBook took a flood of money on the Panthers. In fact, no team has drawn more early action at SuperBook in Week 3 than the Raiders.

So why did the line shrink? Because first-year Carolina head coach Dave Canales on Monday benched quarterback Bryce Young — the first pick of the 2023 NFL Draft — in favor of veteran backup Andy Dalton.

Last year, Dalton started one game in place of an injured Young — coincidentally in Week 3 — and threw for 361 yards and two touchdowns. However, the Panthers lost 37-27 at Seattle. It’s part of the franchise’s 2-16 slump since the start of last season, including 13 losses by a touchdown or more.

Meanwhile, Las Vegas is 8-6 since Week 5 of last season, including 6-1 at home.

Bettors have buy sign on the Bucs

Like the Raiders, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers went on the road in Week 2 and pulled off a shocking upset (20-16 at Detroit as 7.5-point underdogs).

Like the Raiders, Tampa Bay has flipped from a big Week 2 road underdog to a big Week 3 home favorite against a winless opponent. The Bucs are laying nearly a touchdown to visiting Denver.

And like the Raiders, Tampa Bay attracted a lot of early Week 3 betting attention at Westgate SuperBook. In fact, Tampa Bay -6.5 vs. Denver ranked as the book’s second most-bet Week 3 game as of Tuesday afternoon.

While the Bucs are off to a 2-0 start, including a 37-20 home rout of Washington in the opener, Denver has dropped its first two games to Seattle (26-20 on the road) and Pittsburgh (13-6 at home).

The Broncos are traveling to Florida in Week 3 for a second straight season. Last year’s trip to Miami? It ended in a 70-20 loss. That result would seem to support the early betting action on Tampa Bay. However, the history books suggest otherwise: The Buccaneers haven’t won their first three games since the 2005 squad started 4-0. They’re also 1-11 against the spread in Week 3 since 2013.

Other squads that bettors aggressively attacked early in Week 3 (excluding the Patriots-Jets Thursday Night Football game):

• Cardinals (+3) vs. Lions
• Saints (-2.5) vs. Eagles
• Chiefs (-3.5) at Falcons

Interesting tidbits about two of those contests: Arizona is SuperBook’s biggest underdog money line liability in Week 3, and Philadelphia-New Orleans features the book’s biggest point-spread line shift. The Saints opened as a 3-point underdog Sunday night, then flipped to a 2.5-point favorite after the Eagles lost to Atlanta on Monday.

How low can Chargers vs. Steelers go?

In four total games this season, the Chargers Steelers have given up a combined 29 points, with Los Angeles (6.5 points per game) leading the NFL in scoring defense and Pittsburgh (8.0 PPG) ranking second.

So it’s no surprise that Sunday’s Chargers-Steelers clash in Pittsburgh opened with a 36.5-point over/under total, which is tied for the shortest total in Week 3.

Despite the miniscule number, bettors pounded the Under once it hit the odds board. It was so popular that dropped a full point to 35.5. Chargers-Steelers now stands alone as the lowest Week 3 total. The Under in that contest was SuperBook’s most-bet total as of Tuesday afternoon.

For the lowest NFL total of each week, the Under is 18-4-1 dating to the start of the 2023 season (includes weeks when multiple games tied for the lowest total).

So far this season, the Under has cashed on both lowest totals — and Los Angeles and Pittsburgh were involved each time: Raiders-Chargers in Week 1 (22-10; low total of 40), and Steelers-Broncos in Week 2 (13-6 final; low total of 36.5).

In addition to Chargers-Steelers, SuperBook attracted significant early action on three other Unders and one Over in Week 3. Those games (in order of betting action):

• Eagles-Saints Over 49.5
• Dolphins-Seahawks Under 41.5
• Giants-Browns Under 38.5
• Bears-Colts Under 43.5

Since Week 1 of the 2023 campaign, the Under is 164-138-1 (54.3%) in NFL regular season games, including 17-14-1 this season (10-5-1 in Week 2).

Ready for action

Of the 16 games on the Week 3 NFL betting board, only seven were seeing lopsided point spread action at DraftKings as of Tuesday night in terms of ticket count and/or handle.

The seven contests with the greatest one-way point spread action (75% or more):

• Chiefs -3.5 (at Falcons): 82% tickets; 87% money
• Raiders -5.5 (vs. Panthers): 84% tickets; 76% money
• Saints -2.5 (vs. Eagles): 70% tickets; 77% money
• Buccaneers -6.5 (vs. Broncos): 81% tickets
• 49ers -7 (at Rams): 78% money
• Bengals -7.5 (vs. Commanders): 78% money
• Bills -5.5 (vs. Jaguars): 75% tickets

Also early in the week at DraftKings, bettors were split on only four Week 3 games, with one side seeing a greater percentage of tickets and the other a greater portion of the cash. Those games:

• Texans (-2.5) at Vikings (+2.5): Houston 59% tickets; Minnesota 51% money
• Giants (+6) at Browns (-6): New York 54% money; Cleveland 67% tickets
• Packers (+3) at Titans (-3): Green Bay 59% tickets; Tennessee 63% money
• Dolphins (+4.5) at Seahawks (-4.5): Miami 63% money; Seattle 56% tickets

When it comes to over/under totals, 10 games are lopsided in terms of bets and/or handle:

• Giants-Browns Under 38.5: 78% tickets; 97% money
• Eagles-Saints Over 49.5: 79% tickets; 75% money
• Chargers-Steelers Under 35.5: 93% money
• Packers-Titans Under 36.5: 93% money
• Broncos-Buccaneers Under 40: 88% money
• 49ers-Rams Under 43: 87% money
• Dolphins-Seahawks Under 41: 83% money
• Lions-Cardinals Over 52.5: 82% money
• Commanders-Bengals Over 48.5: 80% money
• Panthers-Raiders Over 41: 76% money

Finally, a half-dozen Week 3 battles are seeing early two-way action on totals at DraftKings:

• Bears-Colts (43.5 points): Under 67% tickets; Over 52% money
• Broncos-Buccaneers (40 points): Over 58% tickets; Under 88% money
• Panthers-Raiders (41 points): Under 53% tickets; Over 76% money
• Chiefs-Falcons (46.5 points): Over 70% tickets; Under 62% money
• Jaguars-Bills (45.5 points): Over 69% tickets; Under 67% money
• Commanders-Bengals (48.5 points): Under 74% tickets; Over 80% money