Early Week 4 betting action piles up on Rams, Texans

Bettors at one Las Vegas sportsbook are backing L.A. as a short road underdog, Houston as a big home favorite

It’s a sage piece of sports betting wisdom that has been passed down through generations, and it applies to bettors and bookmakers alike: Don’t get too high when you win or too low when you lose.

That’s why oddsmakers at Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas weren’t doing victory laps on the sportsbook floor last Sunday night. Although they certainly had reason to, because the four teams responsible for the book’s greatest early-week liability all lost.

This includes three favorites.

Given how Week 3 went down, not to mention the sheer dominance of underdogs so far this season, it’s no wonder that the majority of The SuperBook’s early Week 4 betting action has gone to the underdogs.

Excluding Thursday Night Football, here are the top five point-spread wagers — and five most-bet totals — at Westgate SuperBook heading into Week 4, plus noteworthy betting splits information from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bettors find value in Rams as an underdog 

The Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears will take identical 1-2 records into Sunday’s clash at Soldier Field. 

The quality of each team’s victory? Not identical. Same goes for the quality (and experience) of each team’s quarterback.

Los Angeles followed an overtime loss at Detroit and a blowout loss at Arizona with Sunday’s stunning 27-24 home upset of the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers. With his top two wide receivers on the sideline in street clothes, veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford helped the Rams overcome a 10-point deficit with slightly more than 6 minutes to play to secure their first win this season. 

Conversely, Chicago’s 24-17 Week 1 home victory against still-winless Tennessee was an absolute gift. The Bears scored their only touchdowns on a blocked punt and an interception return, as rookie QB Caleb Williams led the offense to just 148 net yards.

Williams looked better the last two weeks, especially last Sunday at Indianapolis, where he threw for 363 yards and tossed his first two NFL touchdowns. But Chicago lost both contests.

So, given the current momentum of both teams — as well as the current quarterback ratings of Stafford (92.6) and Williams (65.5) — it’s easy to see why sharp bettors piled on Los Angeles at The SuperBook. So much so that Chicago quickly fell from a 2.5-point home favorite to a 1-point chalk.

The line has since bounced back to Bears -2.5 at FanDuel. However, as of late Tuesday afternoon, Westgate SuperBook had still taken more bets on L.A. to cover the spread than any other squad playing Sunday and Monday. 

Despite big number, Texans drawing big action vs. winless Jags

Discounting the Cowboys-Giants showdown on Thursday Night Football, the team fetching the second-most early wagers at The SuperBook actually got steamrolled on the road in Week 3 — although not as badly as its Week 4 opponent got steamrolled on the road.

Houston took a 2-0 record to fellow unbeaten Minnesota last Sunday and returned home 2-1 after getting thumped 34-7 as a 1.5-point favorite. This week, the Texans host AFC South rival Jacksonville, which completely no-showed in a 47-10 Monday Night Football loss at Buffalo.

Just how dreadful was the Jaguars’ performance? The SuperBook opened Houston as a 4-point home favorite, moved the number to -6 Monday night and pushed it to -7 as of late Tuesday.

Although the rivals split last year’s season series (both winning on the road), the Texans are still 10-2 straight-up and 8-4 against the spread in the last 10 head-to-head battles. 

Also worth noting: Going back to Week 13 of last season, Jacksonville has lost eight consecutive games started by quarterback Trevor Lawrence (1-7 ATS).

Here are the three other teams that SuperBook bettors aggressively attacked early this week — oddly, all are involved in matchups featuring the exact same point spread:

• Buccaneers +2.5 (vs. Eagles)
• Vikings +2.5 (at Packers)
• Ravens -2.5 (vs. Bills)

Interesting tidbit about the latter contest, which is Week 4’s Sunday Night Football showcase game: While Baltimore -2.5 has received the fifth-most point spread bets, The SuperBook’s biggest moneyline liability early in the week is Buffalo.

Vikings, Packers projected to light up Lambeau Field scoreboard

Not only is Minnesota off to a shocking 3-0 start — including back-to-back victories over two legit Super Bowl contenders in San Francisco and Houston — but it has given up just 30 points.

Only the Steelers, another surprise 3-0 squad, have been stingier (26 points).

This week, the Vikings travel to rival Green Bay, whose defense has rebounded nicely since a 34-29 opening loss to Philadelphia in Brazil. In fact, the Packers surrendered 10 fewer points in wins over Indianapolis (10) and Tennessee (14) than the Eagles tallied in Week 1. 

So it makes sense that Minnesota-Green Bay is one of eight Week 4 contests with a consensus total south of 44 points. What makes less sense, however: Vikings-Packers Over 43.5 was the most-bet non-Thursday Night Football total at The SuperBook as of Tuesday afternoon.

Not only have the teams split their last eight meetings on the field, but the Over/Under has split as well. Last year’s matchups ended 33-10 in Minnesota (Over 42) and 24-10 in Green Bay (Under 41.5).

In fact, the Under has cashed in four of the last five clashes at Lambeau Field.

While early bettors at Westgate SuperBook expect a Vikings-Packers shootout, the next four most-bet totals at the sportsbook are all Unders:

• Eagles-Buccaneers Under 45
• Rams-Bears Under 41
• Browns-Raiders Under 37
• Saints-Falcons Under 42.5

One plausible theory as to why four of the top five totals at the SuperBook see bettors going low: The Under is 20-11-1 over the past two weeks.

NFL Week 4 betting: Ready for action

There’s another full 16-game slate on the NFL betting board for Week 4, but only four of those contests were seeing lopsided point spread action at DraftKings as of Tuesday night in terms of ticket count and/or handle.

The quartet of matchups with significant one-way point-spread action (75% or more):

• Cowboys -6 (at Giants on Thursday night): 79% tickets; 80% money
• Steelers -1.5 (at Colts): 79% tickets; 81% money
• Cardinals -3.5 (vs. Commanders): 78% money
• Lions -3.5 (vs. Seahawks on Monday night): 79% money

Also early in the week at DraftKings, bettors were split on just five Week 4 games, with one side seeing a greater percentage of tickets and the other a greater portion of the cash.

Those games seeing two-way action are:

• Jaguars (+7) at Texans (-7): Houston 67% tickets; Jacksonville 53% money
• Vikings (+2.5) at Packers (-2.5): Minnesota 67% tickets; Green Bay 73% money
• Rams (+2.5) at Bears (-2.5): Los Angeles 74% tickets; Chicago 53% money
• Broncos (+7.5) at Jets (-7.5): New York 51% tickets; Denver 62% money
• Browns (+1) at Raiders (-1): Las Vegas 52% tickets; Cleveland 59% money

As for Week 4 totals, 10 matchups at DraftKings feature one-sided action in tickets and/or handle:

• Steelers at Colts Under 40: 77% tickets; 77% money
• Bills at Ravens Over 46.5 (SNF): 75% tickets; 80% money
• Titans at Dolphins Under 36.5 (MNF): 94% money
• Browns at Raiders Under 37: 89% money
• Bengals at Panthers Over 48: 88% money
• Jaguars at Texans Under 45.5: 82% tickets
• Patriots at 49ers Under 39.5: 81% money
• Vikings at Packers Over 43.5: 80% money
• Rams at Bears Under 41: 79% money
• Saints at Falcons Over 42: 75% tickets

Finally, only a trio of Week 3 battles are seeing early two-way action on totals at DraftKings:

• Eagles at Buccaneers (45 points): Over 51% tickets; Under 67% money
• Patriots at 49ers (39.5 points): Over 53% tickets; Under 81% money
• Browns at Raiders (37 points): Over 56% tickets; Under 89% money