NFL Week 4 quarterback power rankings and projections: Is Kyler No. 1 today?

30 starting quarterbacks will take the field on Sunday and Monday in NFL Week 4, and they are ranked by how Vegas projects their production

Quarterback play is in the center of the frame as Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season arrives. Intriguing matchups are all over the slate on both Sunday and Monday and, on a weekly basis, we take a glance at the quarterbacks who will take the field. These rankings are viewed through the lens of the prop market and statistical projections, highlighting the players with the highest projections all the way down to the basement.

For the sake of clarity, this projection also uses standard fantasy scoring: four points per passing touchdown, one point per 25 passing yards, one point per 10 rushing yards, and six points per rushing touchdown. Let’s break down the Week 4 quarterback landscape, which NFL bettors may be looking to attack.

Tier 1: Passing touchdowns are helpful

1 – Kyler Murray

Projections: 231.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 35.5 rush yards, 20.8 fantasy points

Murray’s combination of matchup, passing upside, and rushing floor is attractive. He has at least 45 rushing yards in each game in 2024, and Murray has been both efficient and productive as a passer. Even with Washington winning in Week 3, the Commanders did not force a punt against the Bengals, making 35.5 rushing yards at DraftKings feel very attainable for Murray.

2 – CJ Stroud

Projections: 269.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 8.5 rush yards, 19.6 fantasy points

No quarterback is projected for more passing yards at FanDuel than Stroud. Week 3 was brutal for the Texans, with Houston never finding its footing in a blowout loss. The projections like Stroud to bounce back against the 0-3 Jaguars this week. 

3 – Joe Burrow

Projections: 256.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 11.5 rush yards, 19.4 fantasy points

The Bengals are 0-3, but that is not the fault of Burrow. In fact, he has improved each week, with five touchdown passes, zero interceptions, and 582 passing yards in the last two weeks. Burrow led a Cincinnati offense that put up 33 points in Week 3, and the Bengals will face a vulnerable Carolina defense this week.

4 – Jordan Love

Projections: 241.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 7.5 rush yards, 18.4 fantasy points

Love is expected to play on Sunday, seemingly recovered from the knee injury that forced him to miss the last two games. Provided he plays, FanDuel has an encouraging projection through the air, and he is the final quarterback forecasted to throw multiple touchdown passes. 

Tier 2: High-end quarterbacks with rushing upside (and Mahomes)

5 – Lamar Jackson

Projections: 201.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 57.5 rush yards, 17.8 fantasy points

Jackson is averaging more rushing yards than any NFL quarterback this season, and that leads to the league’s highest rushing projection at Caesars Sportsbook this week among signal-callers. That boosts his floor in an obvious way, but Jackson has also been hyper-efficient as a passer. That manifested with 12.1 yards per pass attempt in Week 3.

6 – Jayden Daniels

Projections: 214.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 47.5 rush yards, 17.3 fantasy points

Only Lamar Jackson has a higher rushing projection than Jayden Daniels, which speaks to his impressive skill set as a runner. There is also considerable buzz around Daniels following his lights-out showing in Week 3. Daniels completed 21 of 23 pass attempts while averaging 11.0 yards per pass attempt in a win over Cincinnati. His ceiling is sky-high.

7 – Josh Allen

Projections: 231.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 33.5 rush yards, 16.6 fantasy points

Allen showed off his upside with four touchdown passes in the first half of a Week 3 blowout win over Jacksonville. He took his foot off the gas pedal after halftime, but Allen combines that kind of ceiling as a passer with reliable rushing projection. He has a pair of rushing touchdowns and more than 80 yards on the ground through three weeks.

8 – Jalen Hurts

Projections: 205.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 41.5 rush yards, 16.4 fantasy points

Hurts drops quite a bit from previous weeks, almost entirely because he is not favored to score a rushing touchdown. The “Tush Push” has been a smaller part of Philadelphia’s arsenal this season and, while Hurts is still a real threat to generate production with his legs, it was the touchdown safety that sent him to the top of this list in previous iterations.

9 – Patrick Mahomes

Projections: 251.1 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 18.5 rush yards, 15.9 fantasy points

It will surprise some to see Mahomes this far from the top, but the Chiefs have been economical, rather than explosive, on offense this season. That is true for Mahomes from a statistical standpoint. While he does run on a semi-regular basis, his passing touchdown projection limits this ranking.

Tier 3: Young players with rushing ceiling

10 – Caleb Williams

Projections: 223.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 21.5 rush yards, 15.1 fantasy points

It came in a loss, but Williams had his first blockbuster game from a statistical perspective in Week 3. It included 363 passing yards and multiple touchdown passes against Indianapolis. This week, Williams faces a vulnerable Rams secondary.

11 – Justin Fields

Projections: 178.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 39.5 rush yards, 15.1 fantasy points

The Steelers haven’t needed Fields to carry them with his arm this season, and the market projects that to continue. However, Fields is an established threat with his legs, and this is a more favorable matchup than a low-scoring slugfest against the Chargers in Week 3.

12 – Anthony Richardson

Projections: 184.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 36.5 rush yards, 15.0 fantasy points

It’s been rough for Richardson in the last two weeks with five interceptions and only one touchdown pass. Things will not get easier from a matchup standpoint with a face-off against Pittsburgh, but Richardson does have at least 24 rushing yards in each game in 2024.

Tier 4: Just enough

13 – Geno Smith

Projections: 243.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 10.5 rush yards, 14.8 fantasy points

Smith has been fantastic this season, connecting on 74.8 percent of his passes and averaging nearly eight yards per attempt. He is a big reason that Seattle is 3-0 but, from a statistical projection standpoint at most sportsbooks, he doesn’t wow anyone in advance of a road game against a competent Lions defense.

14 – Trevor Lawrence

Projections: 227.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 15.5 rush yards, 14.7 fantasy points

Divisional matchups are often tough, but Lawrence and the Jaguars are undoubtedly looking forward to getting back on the field after what happened in Week 3. He threw for only 178 yards, along with an ill-timed interception, and Lawrence hasn’t enjoyed a big game this season. Still, the pedigree and talent are immense.

15 – Deshaun Watson

Projections: 203.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 23.5 rush yards, 14.5 fantasy points

Watson leads a much-maligned Browns offense, and he has not reached 200 passing yards in a game this year. On the more favorable side, Cleveland faces a Raiders defense that just yielded more than 400 total yards and 36 points to the previously hapless Carolina Panthers.

16 – Baker Mayfield

Projections: 230.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 12.5 rush yards, 14.5 fantasy points

Mayfield’s raw production has slowed the last two weeks, but he has completed more than 74 percent of his passes this season. Week 1’s four-touchdown explosion was not sustainable, but this is a reasonably favorable matchup as the Bucs return home to face the Eagles.

17 – Sam Darnold

Projections: 227.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 10.5 rush yards, 14.2 fantasy points

Darnold leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (eight) through three games, but FanDuel still projects him to produce only one in a road game against Green Bay. He also emerged from Week 3 with a bone bruise in his left knee, which could limit his mobility a touch.

18 – Brock Purdy

Projections: 229.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 7.5 rush yards, 13.9 fantasy points

The 49ers have missed critical weapons due to injury, but Purdy has not missed a beat from a production standpoint. He is in the top three of the NFL in passing yards, exceeding 290 yards in back-to-back outings. Still, his passing touchdown projection at BetMGM is mild, keeping him well down the list.

19 – Bo Nix

Projections: 184.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 25.5 rush yards, 13.9 fantasy points

Nix’s passing projection is quite meager in comparison to most players on this list. With that said, he projects for more than 20 rushing yards, and that brings him out of the basement and into the middle of the pack among signal-callers in Week 4. 

20 – Andy Dalton

Projections: 231.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 3.5 rush yards, 13.6 fantasy points

Dalton was firmly in the bottom tier before his first start of the 2024 season, but one tremendous outing forces a big jump. Dalton threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns in leading Carolina to a blowout road win. That is not sustainable, but the market is buying the production to some degree.

21 – Jared Goff

Projections: 233.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 13.4 fantasy points

This is quite a drop for Goff compared to what the preseason projections were indicating. Part of that is that he has fewer touchdown passes (three) than interceptions (four), but Goff does get a home game in Week 3. The challenge comes in that he will face a swarming Seattle defense in prime time. 

22 – Will Levis

Projections: 195.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 15.5 rush yards, 13.4 fantasy points

These sportsbook projections do not penalize turnovers, which helps to account for Levis staying out of the basement. He does have a big arm and solid mobility, plus the Titans have a relatively favorable matchup against Miami.

23 – Aaron Rodgers

Projections: 219.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 3.5 rush yards, 13.1 fantasy points

Rodgers and the Jets seemed to find their offensive stride in Week 3. He threw for 281 yards and two touchdowns in a comfortable win over the Patriots, and Rodgers likely would have surpassed 300 passing yards if the game was closer. The question is whether that is the baseline moving forward, or whether his modest production in the first two weeks is more indicative.

Tier 5: The Basement

24 – Gardner Minshew

Projections: 209.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 6.5 rush yards, 13.0 fantasy points

If nothing else, Minshew has been consistent this season. He has thrown exactly one touchdown pass and one interception in each game while accounting for between 214 and 276 passing yards.

25 – Derek Carr

Projections: 221.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 1.5 rush yards, 13.0 fantasy points

Carr erupted in the first two games, but the market didn’t fully buy into the jump. Then, the bottom fell out for New Orleans last week. He’s back in the bottom tier.

26 – Kirk Cousins

Projections: 218.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 12.8 fantasy points

Like Carr above him and Stafford below him, Cousins is harmed by a total lack of rushing projection at places like bet365. He is also in an offense that seems content to grind it out on the ground, and Atlanta’s pass-catchers have been relatively underwhelming compared to their pedigree.

27 – Matthew Stafford

Projections: 212.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 12.6 fantasy points

Stafford doesn’t run, and he doesn’t have his top two receivers. He’s still a tremendous player, but the situation is stacked against him right now.

28 – Jacoby Brissett

Projections: 156.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 9.5 rush yards, 11.2 fantasy points

Brissett does project to run more than the players directly ahead of him on this list. However, he faces a tough matchup against San Francisco, and Brissett has the fewest projected passing yards of any quarterback at DraftKings right now.

Note: Due to injury uncertainty, no QB projections were available for the Miami Dolphins or Los Angeles Chargers at the time of publication.