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New England Patriots’ fall: Betting on a new era of struggles

Bettors are counting on the once-proud franchise to reach a new low.

By Ben Fawkes & Nick Stellini Aug 12, 2024 at 3:51 am ET 3 min read
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) hands the ball to running back Antonio Gibson (21) during the first half against the Carolina Panthers at Gillette Stadium.
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Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

The New England Patriots, once the most revered dynasty in the NFL and a franchise that won six Super Bowls (and appeared in nine) from 2002-2019, now appear to be the basement dwellers of the AFC East. The Bill Belichick and Tom Brady era in New England was not marked not only by championships, but also by being extremely profitable for Patriots bettors.

Simply put, if you were betting against New England on a regular basis, you were likely losing money. New England went 189-128-7 against the spread with Brady starting and Belichick as coach, including 42-19 ATS after a loss. The Patriots won the AFC East 11 straight times from 2009-2019 and were 8-2-1 to the Over against their season win total. They went 17 straight seasons without a losing ATS record, according to Sports Odds History.

But turn the page to the 2024-25 season and the Patriots now have the NFL’s lowest projected win total at 4.5 and among the worst Super Bowl odds of any team at +25000 at Fanatics Sportsbook. That represents the lowest season win total and worst Super Bowl odds for New England since the 1991-92 season. New England is a shocking +2200 to win the AFC East, the same division it opened for two decades.

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With a strong defense that is getting back several pieces, including second-year standout cornerback Christian Gonzalez, and an offense with Jacoby Brissett likely starting at quarterback (and No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye waiting in the wings), what are expectations from the betting community about New England this season?

“It’s the lowest power rating to start a season [for New England] since prior to Brady,” Thomas Gable, sportsbooks director at The Borgata in New Jersey said. “They had some pretty low ratings [during the season] last year, and at times they were lower than where I have them now. I had Arizona lower coming into last season than I have New England currently.”

Indeed, New England is first in bets (34.9%) and total dollars wagered (81.5%) at Fanatics to have the fewest regular season wins this season, and has more than 17 times as much money as the second-most wagered team (Carolina Panthers). In other words, bettors aren’t expecting a lot from them.

“You can make a case they will be the worst team in the league,” Kurt Blakeway, sportsbook supervisor at JACK Entertainment in Ohio, said. “Bottom three for sure.”

New England went a putrid 5-11-1 ATS last season, including 1-6-1 as a favorite. Considering the Patriots currently aren’t favored in a single game this season in DraftKings’ advance lines, that’s not a situation New England will likely be in much.

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Can the Patriots surpass bettors’ expectations? 

It will certainly be one of many interesting NFL betting storylines to follow this season.