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Ravens vs. Bucs Monday Night Football preview and best bets
Can the Bucs offense keep it going against one of the AFC’s best?
| WHO | Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| WHEN | Monday, October 21, 2024 at 8:15pm ET |
| WHERE | Raymond James Stadium | Tampa, Florida |
| HOW | ESPN | ABC |
In Week 7, the NFL is offering another Monday night doubleheader. The earlier game is where the action will be for those who love offense. No team has scored more points this season than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (178), but the Ravens are just one point behind them at 177. Baker Mayfield is having a career year; he’s currently three clear of the field with a league-leading 15 touchdown passes, and he’s second in the league in QB rating. But Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson, his counterpart in this game, leads the league in total yards, having added more than 400 on the ground, and he’s currently outpacing his MVP performance from a year ago.
As good as the Bucs offense is, the Ravens offense is even better. First in the league in yards and second in EPA/play, Lamar’s dynamic performance has been augmented by the addition of running back Derrick Henry, who leads the NFL in rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing TDs, yards from scrimmage and total touchdowns. The future Hall of Famer’s 5.9 yards per carry is a half yard greater than his previous career high. Henry is on pace to become the oldest running back to lead the league in rushing yards since Curtis Martin in 2004, and the oldest player to lead the league in yards from scrimmage since Don Hutson in 1944.
With all this offense, it may come as a surprise that this game’s over/under is not the highest of the week. Here are the current betting odds for Ravens vs. Bucs at some of the best online sportsbooks. These odds are current as of the most recent update of this article.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens spread | -3.5 (-110) | -3.5 (-108) | -3.5 (-110) |
| Bucs spread | +3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-112) | +3.5 (-110) |
| Ravens moneyline | -188 | -185 | -190 |
| Bucs moneyline | +158 | +154 | +158 |
| Over | Over 49.5 (-110) | Over 50 (-112) | Over 50 (-115) |
| Under | Under 49.5 (-110) | Under 50 (-108) | Under 50 (-105) |
Why bet on the Ravens
Baltimore is second in EPA/play overall, including second running and third passing. The Bucs run defense, meanwhile, is 27th in EPA/play. Jackson and Henry could be running all over Raymond James Stadium all night.
The Bucs defense is susceptible, just 24th in EPA/play overall, and 27th against the pass. But the Ravens traditionally have a big play defense that forces turnovers. Last year they had more takeaways than any other defense in the league. And for as good as Mayfield has been so far this year, he’s still sloppy with the football. He already has five interceptions and three fumbles; his interception rate is the highest it has been since he was in Cleveland.
If the Ravens can jump out to an early lead, their run game will be able to control the clock, and Mayfield will be forced into risky passes, which could lead to turnovers. The Ravens may “only” be 4-2, but they have won four in a row, and if not for Isaiah Likely’s unlucky toe in Week 1 and a miraculous Raiders comeback in Week 2, the Ravens would be 6-0 and Lamar would surely be the heavy favorite to win back-to-back MVP awards. As it is, he’s still the second favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook (+500, tied with Josh Allen and behind only Patrick Mahomes at +370).
Why bet on the Bucs
The Bucs haven’t just exceeded expectations in the early part of the 2024 season, they’ve done it against premier competition. In Week 1, they destroyed the Commanders, all the more impressive considering that the Commanders have the best net EPA in the NFL since that game. In Week 2, they went into Detroit and upset the team currently tied for the best Super Bowl odds in the NFC at FanDuel. In Week 4, they blew out the NFC East favorite Philadelphia Eagles. And last week they went into New Orleans and destroyed a Saints team that entered the game top-5 in EPA/play. Yes, the Saints were missing their quarterback, but they still had their top five defense, and the Bucs hung 51 on them.
Altogether, the Bucs have had one of the toughest strength of schedules through the early part of the 2024. That is why, according to Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System, the Bucs entered Week 7 as third-best team in the league this year, behind only Minnesota and Detroit.
In order for the Bucs to win, or at least cover the spread, Mayfield has to continue to take advantage of the Ravens’ bottom-third pass defense by finding Mike Evans and Chris Godwin downfield. The challenge will be getting the Ravens’ running game off the field.
But even if the Ravens build a lead, they’ve shown a propensity to giving much of it up in the fourth quarters. They allowed 13 unanswered fourth-quarter points to the Raiders in the Week 2 loss and allowed 19 unanswered fourth-quarter points to the Cowboys in Week 3, giving the Cowboys the backdoor cover. Last week they were also outscored by seven in the fourth quarter, giving the Commanders a backdoor cover to those who bet Washington at +7.5. Most bettors reveived a push onb either side of the 7-point spread.
Best bet for Ravens vs. Bucs: Same-game parlay Ravens 1st half spread -1.5 + Ravens money line (+109, FanDuel)
If a bettor believes the Ravens are going to win but is worried about the backdoor cover and that extra half-point on the spread, they might want to consider the money line. Unfortunately, even with the most favorable odds (currently -185 on DraftKings), this doesn’t come with a great payout. But a same game parlay on FanDuel combining the first-half spread (Ravens -1.5) and the money line gives plus odds (+109), meaning one could more than double their money compared to a straight money line bet (a $10 bet would earn $5.41 on the DraftKings money line but $10.90 on the FanDuel same-game parlay).
To cash this FanDuel same game parlay, the Ravens would have to lead at the half by more than a point and hang on to win.
Prediction: Ravens 30, Bucs 27