This week, let us give thanks to our most honorable college football team: Team Chaos. Will it rear its ugly head during rivalry week just in time to knock the College Football Playoff race into a frenzy? From the Iron Bowl to Bedlam and some off-the-radar games sprinkled in, there certainly are plenty of opportunities to take underdogs in Week 14
Each week, I'll give you the top five upset alert games based on matchups, injuries/suspensions and other factors. But in the spirit of the upset, I generally avoid games where lines are within a touchdown, though there will be some exceptions. Similarly, I'll only go with moneyline picks when the payout is around 2:1 -- maybe a little less, definitely when it's more.
Week 13 results
When: Friday, Noon ET | Where: Mount Pleasant, Michigan | Line: Central Michigan -9.5
Why it's listed: I've been down on #MACtion this year, but there's some low-key chaos on the line in this one. If Central Michigan beats Toledo, it wins the MAC West. If it loses, Western Michigan backs its way into the conference title game. And it all rests on first-year coach Jim McElwain!
Toledo's key to the game: Rockets receiver Bryce Mitchell may not have the most ridiculous stats but averages about 20 yards per catch, and Central Michigan's defense has given up a number of big pass plays this year. Mitchell needs a huge game.
Central Michigan's key to the game: Chips running back Jonathan Ward has almost 1,000 yards on the ground and 14 touchdowns -- and he missed two games due to injury. If he has a big day, Toledo's probably playing catch-up. The Rockets have given up 26 scores on the ground.
Pick: The Chips have been on a roll, winning five of their last six. I wouldn't be surprised if they play a little tight early with some newfound incentives on the line, but these two teams have just been going in opposite directions lately. ATS: Toledo, SU: Central Michigan
When: Saturday, Noon ET | Where: West Lafayette, Indiana | Moneyline: Indiana -244, Purdue +196
Why it's listed: Indiana's had a nice season, but it's come back down to Earth a bit after losing to Penn State and Michigan. Getting your rival at the end of the year on the road isn't exactly an easy topper.
Purdue's key to the game: In Rondale Moore's absence, receiver David Bell has had a really nice season. He's up to 899 yards and six touchdowns as a freshman, leading the team in both categories despite having a rotating door at quarterback.
Indiana's key to the game: The Hoosiers also have some legit wideouts, but Whop Philyor missed the Michigan game with an injury. He's supposed to be ready for this game, which would be huge, but how effective he'll be remains to be seen.
Pick: Both teams have been struck by the injury bug, but I don't think there's all that much separating these two. Purdue's had some young players step up and do good things down the stretch. What the heck, right? Purdue +196
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Auburn, Alabama | Moneyline: Alabama -170, Auburn +150
Why it's listed: It's a rivalry, Auburn is only a slight home dog and Alabama is without Tua Tagovailoa. Those all seem like pretty normal reasons.
Auburn's key to the game: Entering the last game of the season, it's probably wishful thinking to hope that Auburn's offense is going to make a difference. In fact, it might do the opposite, but it has to do something good. It doesn't need to win a shootout against Alabama, but it needs enough offense to win at its own game. You can run on Alabama's defense better than in years past, so expect the Tigers to try to take advantage.
Alabama's key to the game: Obviously, how quarterback Mac Jones plays against the Tigers' lockdown defense is imperative. He has a wealth of weapons, and a perfect offense always beats a perfect defense. If he's good, Alabama probably wins. If he's average at best, I'd lean with the Tigers.
Pick: A good rule of thumb for casual picks is if you think a single-digit dog has a shot to win -- and obviously I do -- then go ahead and pick 'em straight up. You won't get a monster payout if you're willing to put money on the Tigers in the Iron Bowl, but it will be something. And after missing on MLs over the last few weeks, something is better than nothing. Auburn +150
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET | Where: Houston, Texas | Line: Navy -7.5
Why it's listed: It's been a bitterly disappointing year for Houston under first-year coach Dana Holgorsen, but the Cougars have certainly been competitive and Navy only wins big against truly bad teams.
Houston's key to the game: The Cougars' run defense is average (4.75 yards per attempt, 16 TDs allowed), but you need eye discipline and proper angles to stop a triple-option offense. You'll find out typically in the first 15-20 minutes if they have what it takes.
Navy's key to the game: Navy came into the Notre Dame game a couple of weeks ago with a respectable pass defense ... and then got decimated to the tune of 302 yards and five touchdowns. Houston wideout Marquez Stevenson has world-class speed. If he's a one-man show, Houston has a shot. Navy has to have an answer for him.
Pick: Fun fact! Houston hasn't beaten a team with a winning record this year. I don't reckon that changes on Saturday, but the Cougars do have a couple of weapons to expose Navy's pass defense. That keeps it close at home. That half-point on the line is noteworthy, too. ATS: Houston, SU: Navy
No. 7 Oklahoma at No. 21 Oklahoma State
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Where: Stillwater, Oklahoma | Line: Oklahoma -12.5
Why it's listed: Bedlam has a propensity for dabbling in the absurd because of the offensive minds strolling the sidelines and the skill on the field. Plus, Oklahoma has not been a cover machine nor has it played particularly well over the last month.
Oklahoma State's key to the game: Who helps Chuba Hubbard? We know Hubbard is a stud and he's probably going to eclipse 2,000 yards rushing. But the Cowboys' second-leading rusher was quarterback Spencer Sanders, who is now out for the year. Dru Brown isn't an option in the ground game, and Oklahoma's defense struggles against dual-threat quarterbacks.
Oklahoma's key to the game: Can quarterback Jalen Hurts tighten up his ball security? He's been a turnover machine lately, coughing up a few deep inside opposing territory. You might be able to leave points on the board against TCU, but not against Oklahoma State. It feels like Hurts is a one-man show a lot of the time, and I'm not always sure that's a good thing.
Pick: Even at home, I'm not sure I love Oklahoma State's chances of pulling the outright upset. The absence of Sanders (along with receiver Tylan Wallace) is noteworthy to exposing Oklahoma's defensive weaknesses. But, coach Mike Gundy usually has some tricks up his sleeve to make it interesting. ATS: Oklahoma State, SU: Oklahoma