Toledo vs. Ball State odds, line, start time: Picks and predictions from advanced model that called Texas' upset

The MAC takes center stage on Halloween night as the Toledo Rockets battle the Ball State Cardinals from the Glass Bowl at 7:30 p.m. ET. With so many teams jockeying for position in the MAC, the winner will be in a strong position to take control. Both have played strong non-conference schedules. Ball State had a chance to tie Notre Dame late before falling by eight, while Toledo put up fights against Miami and Fresno State early in the season. Toledo opened as a 17-point favorite and now is laying 18.5. The Over-Under is 64.5, up from an open of 62, in the latest Ball State vs. Toledo odds. Before you make any Ball State vs.Toledo picks, check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. Over the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated point-spread picks.

The model made some huge calls in Week 9, including Oklahoma State's outright upset of No. 6 Texas. It also was all over Georgia (-6.5) covering against Florida, and recommended California (+12) against Washington, as well as Kentucky (+7) against Missouri. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has simulated Ball State vs. Toledo 10,000 times. We can tell you it's leaning over, but it's also produced a strong against-the-spread pick that hits in 60 percent of simulations. This pick is available only at SportsLine.

The model knows that Toledo's ground-and-pound scheme, which nets 204 rushing yards per game, makes it the top-scoring team in the conference at 40.8 points per contest. Quarterback Mitchell Guadagni, who has thrown 13 touchdowns against three interceptions, is also the team's second-leading rusher with 428 yards. Running back Bryant Koback is tops on the squad with 434 rushing yards and seven scores.

Leading receiver Diontae Johnson (483 yards) picks up yardage in chunks, gaining 17.3 per grab, while wideout Cody Thompson has just 25 receptions for the year but nine have been in the end zone, including three against the Broncos last week. 

But just because Toledo can move the ball doesn't mean it will cover on Wednesday.

Ball State put up 52 points against Kent State and should have plenty of success versus Toledo's 112th-ranked defense (452.4 yards per game). Running back James Gilbert (586 yards, 5 TDs) and wideout Justin Hall (47 catches, 390 yards) will help take the pressure off backup quarterback Drew Plitt, who will start for the injured Riley Neal (meniscus, PCL). Plitt, a 6-2, 207-pound sophomore, is no novice. He's completed over 62 percent of his throws with a 127.7 rating in four appearances this season.

Moreover, the Cardinals won't be intimidated going into Toledo, as they've covered six straight meetings at the Glass Bowl, winning three of those outright.

Who wins Toledo vs. Ball State? And which side covers 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to be all over, all from the incredible computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors.

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