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Betting preview and insights for Dolphins-Bills on Thursday night

Bettors are expecting a high-scoring affair in South Florida.

By Ben Fawkes & Josh Nagel Sep 12, 2024 at 11:45 am ET 3 min read
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) in action agains the Miami Dolphins during NFL football game Jan 07, 2024, in Miami Gardens.
USATSI

The Miami Dolphins host the Buffalo Bills as 2.5-point favorites on Thursday night in an important AFC East divisional matchup. It’s the first game of Week 2, after a Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season that saw favorites go 13-3 straight up and 9-7 against the spread. Favorites were also 4-0 in the stand alone night games in Week 1.

The Bills (-6.5) escaped with a 34-28 home win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1, failing to cover the spread. The Dolphins (-3.5) came all the way back from a 17-3 deficit to win 20-17 at home on a 52-yard field goal as time expired against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The spread was either a push at Miami or a Jacksonville ATS win at +3.5, depending on the number you had. Both were widely available.

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has not fared well against the Bills in his career, going 1-6 SU (2-4-1 ATS)  with six touchdowns and seven interceptions. But he has been a good bet at home, going 18-9 ATS in his career.

The bets and overall money on the spread have favored the Dolphins at sportsbooks, as 56% of wagers and 57% of the money is on Miami -2.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. At BetRivers, the story is similar, with 60% of the bets and 60% of the total dollars wagered on Miami -2.5. Bettors have favored the over 48.5 points on the total in this game, with 73% of bets at DraftKings on the over.

The largest reported wager on the game so far is a $110,000 bet from one bettor in Michigan on Dolphins -1.5 at Caesars Sportsbook.

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We checked in with a few bookmakers to see where the betting action has been.

Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in New Jersey: “We opened Dolphins -1.5, now up to 2.5. It was certainly early Miami money at -1.5 and -2, although we’re starting to attract some Bills money at 2.5. The total opened 50.5, now down to 49. I think that Dolphins -2.5 is probably the number there. We’ll see what we attract with them at -2.5. At this point, I don’t see us getting to 3 unless there’s some sort of news that comes in.”

Zachary Lucas, retail sportsbook director at TwinSpires: “Pretty split on the side, but it’s the total where we’re seeing a big discrepancy toward the Over. We have 52 percent of tickets and 57 percent of money on Miami, but 74% of bets and 82% of money on the over.”