Biggest Super Bowl futures line movements post-Week 3: Bills rising

Over half of the total handle on Super Bowl futures bets at BetMGM since the end of Week 3 is on the Buffalo Bills

After their dominant performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football, the undefeated Buffalo Bills have been getting some significant attention from the sports betting community. Since the end of Week 3, 52% of all the money wagered on Super Bowl winner futures bets at BetMGM has been placed on the Bills. That money has come on 37% of the total bets since Week 3, which also is the highest percentage in the league.

The Bills’ Super Bowl odds moved up from +1100 last week to +800 this week, which was the sixth-highest jump overall at BetMGM. Given that Buffalo has the third-best Super Bowl odds, that 300-point jump is the most significant change made by any team after Week 3. The five clubs that made larger jumps are bigger longshots and therefore had more of a chance to see a larger overall increase in their odds. 

Let’s take a look at some other teams that made big moves up or down in the betting odds to win Super Bowl LIX. If you are looking to place any bets based on the odds discussed in this article, then be sure to check out the current BetMGM promo before signing up.

Biggest risers in Super Bowl futures odds after Week 3

Based on data provided by BetMGM on Tuesday morning, here are the eight teams that saw an increase in their Super Bowl odds this week. They are sorted by the change in odds in descending order. 

Team	Odds before Week 2	Current Odds	Change
New York Giants	+50000	+30000	-20000
Washington Commanders	+25000	+10000	-15000
Minnesota Vikings	+5000	+3000	-2000
Green Bay Packers	+2500	+2000	-500
Pittsburgh Steelers	+4000	+3500	-500
Buffalo Bills	+1100	+800	-300
New York Jets	+1800	+1600	-200
Kansas City Chiefs	+450	+425	-25

Unsurprisingly, all of these teams won their Week 3 games, and the Vikings, Steelers, Bills and Chiefs are four of the five remaining undefeated teams. The only other unbeaten is the Seattle Seahawks, whose odds were unchanged this week. 

Vikings, Packers also on the rise

The Vikings’ big jump also is noteworthy as it easily was the biggest of any team with a realistic chance of competing for the Lombardi Trophy. The Giants and Commanders may be trending up, but they still are bottom-10 teams in terms of their current odds. The Vikings have moved up from 22nd after Week 1 (+8000) and now have the 12th-highest odds overall and the sixth-highest in the NFC. They are tied with the Commanders for the biggest jump since Week 1. Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has Sam Darnold looking like the quarterback who was selected third overall by the New York Jets in the 2018 NFL Draft, while defensive coordinator Brian Flores is leading a unit that is allowing just 10.0 points per game (second in the league). 

The Packers have moved into the top 10 in the overall odds after jumping past the Dallas Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals this week. They have gone 2-0 without franchise quarterback Jordan Love, who has a chance to return this week after suffering a knee injury at the end of the Week 1 game against the Philadelphia Eagles. Backup Malik Willis has performed admirably in his absence by protecting the ball and making plays with his legs. 

Biggest fallers in Super Bowl futures odds after Week 3

Fourteen different teams saw their futures odds for the Super Bowl decline after their Week 3 games, including eight whose odds dropped by at least 1000. Here is a summary of all the teams whose odds dropped this week, sorted by the change in odds in descending order.

Team	Odds before Week 2	Current Odds	Change
Chicago Bears	+5000	+10000	+5000
Tennessee Titans	+25000	+30000	+5000
Miami Dolphins	+4000	+6600	+2600
Jacksonville Jaguars	+8000	+10000	+2000
Cleveland Browns	+5000	+6600	+1600
Arizona Cardinals	+6600	+8000	+1400
Los Angeles Chargers	+4000	+5000	+1000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+4000	+5000	+1000
Cincinnati Bengals	+2000	+2500	+500
New Orleans Saints	+3000	+3500	+500
Atlanta Falcons	+3500	+4000	+500
Dallas Cowboys	+2000	+2200	+200
San Francisco 49ers	+600	+700	+100
Houston Texans	+1100	+1200	+100

The Saints were one of the biggest risers when we looked at the line movements after Week 2, and they still have been one of the biggest risers since Week 1 (+4500). They came back down to earth a bit in their Week 3 loss to the Eagles – particularly on offense, as they scored just 12 points after averaging a whopping 45.5 over their first two games. 

It’s worth noting that the Bengals still have the 11th-highest odds to win it all despite starting out 0-3, including losses to two teams (Carolina Panthers and Commanders) who are in the bottom 10 in the Super Bowl odds. Only six teams since 1979 have even made the playoffs after an 0-3 start, and none have won the Super Bowl. It’s a bit surprising that the Bengals’ odds did not tumble even lower.

Five teams with surprisingly unchanged odds

There were 10 teams overall whose odds did not change, including a few surprises.

One of the most surprising outcomes of Week 3 was the Panthers trouncing the Las Vegas Raiders after they were blown out in their first two games. With veteran quarterback Andy Dalton replacing former No. 1 pick Bryce Young, Carolina led by 26 points in the fourth quarter before two late touchdowns by Las Vegas made the final score slightly more respectable. Despite the unexpected performances by each team, both of their Super Bowl odds remain unchanged. The Panthers have the longest odds in the league at +75000, while the Raiders have the sixth-longest at +15000. 

Three other teams had impressive wins but did not impress BetMGM oddsmakers enough to impact their Super Bowl odds. The Denver Broncos (+30000) beat the Buccaneers by 19 on the road. The Los Angeles Rams (+6600) overcame several significant injuries to stage a late comeback and defeat the vaunted 49ers. Finally, the Indianapolis Colts (+10000) topped the Bears as slight home underdogs. All three teams saw no change in their Super Bowl odds despite those solid wins.