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Chiefs vs. Chargers Week 4: Odds, picks and best bets – Will Justin Herbert play?
Get the latest betting odds and best bets for the Chiefs vs. Chargers matchup in Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season.
| WHO | Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-1) |
| WHEN | Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET |
| WHERE | SoFi Stadium | Los Angeles, California |
| TV | CBS |
NFL fans and bettors were excited about the Los Angeles Chargers’ potential heading into the season. Jim Harbaugh returned to California to become the new coach, and the team cut ties with aging veterans such as Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen. The changes were expected to inject new life into the sputtering franchise which rarely played up to its potential over the last few years.
The moves paid off early. The Chargers started 2-0, with dominant wins over the less heralded Raiders and Panthers. However, following a spate of in-game injuries, the L.A. offense sputtered in Week 3, leading to an inept offensive and a defeat on the road against the Steelers. Justin Herbert aggravated an ankle injury, going down after just 36 snaps. The Chargers also lost veteran tackle Rashawn Slater and highly touted rookie tackle Joe Alt. On the other side of the ball, the team’s star pass rusher, Joey Bosa, suffered an arm injury which will keep him out of this week’s game.
The health of Herbert will be the key variable for betting markets heading into the Chargers’ Week 4 showdown on Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs. But regardless of which quarterback helms the offense, he is likely to be without his two top tackles. The injury woes make an already tough matchup against the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs even more daunting.
Kansas City comes in relatively healthy and having already earned three wins against marquee opponents. Mahomes & Co. defeated the Ravens in their season opener before holding on to beat the Bengals and Falcons in Weeks 2 and 3. Kansas City’s momentum and the Chargers’ health issues have the Chiefs heavily favored at sportsbooks to earn their fourth win of the year in Los Angeles.
Here are current betting odds for Chiefs vs. Chargers at several sportsbooks. The odds are subject to change throughout the week.
Odds below are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Kansas City Chiefs | Los Angeles Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -7 (-112) | +7 (-108) |
| Money line | -355 | +285 |
| Total | Over 41.5 (-110) | Under 41.5 (-110) |
Why bet on the Chargers
The market originally Los Angeles priced as a 7.5-point underdog to the Chiefs, but that number has now dipped to 7 in some books. That is a large spread, but it largely reflects the uncertainty surrounding Herbert’s status. If he is a go on Sunday, the line could move to -6.5 even. On the other hand, if Herbert’s ankle injury is too severe for him to play, this number should move to -8 or -8.5. That leaves a dilemma for bettors because there is value to be found for anyone who can accurately predict the quarterback’s chances of playing, but that does come with the downside of being on the wrong side of the closing line.
Finding a price of -7.5 is crucial. Seven is obviously a key number in point spreads because one touchdown and an extra point separate teams far more often than most other numbers. The same is true for three points since games come down to a three-point separation far more often than numbers such as two or four.
The downside of taking a chance on the Chargers may not even be that large. Herbert’s injury is an aggravation of one he suffered against the Raiders in Week 2. He played through the injury and finished that game but could not make it through the Chargers’ entire Week 3 matchup. However, Herbert did try to give it a go, and he has been resilient in the face of injury throughout his career, playing in several games when listed as questionable.
Why bet on the Chiefs
NFL bettors can find a surfeit of reasons why the Chiefs are the team to back, starting with their back-to-back Super Bowls and six straight AFC Championship Game appearances.
Many fans and analysts thought that the Chiefs might finally slow down a bit in 2024. Tight end Travis Kelce is a year older, and the team’s identity is changing without his constant presence as a threat on every play. Yet, the Chiefs have proved doubters wrong once again, finding a new consistent receiver between the seams in Rashee Rice and integrating the big-play ability of rookie wideout Xavier Worthy.
The scary thing is that the Chiefs often start slowly and save a lot of their tricks for a postseason Super Bowl run. If the 3-0 start went down without Kansas City using its entire arsenal, this season could be scary for Chiefs opponents.
Sunday’s matchup with the Chargers may be one in which the Chiefs unleash even more offensive firepower. The game is their first in the division and would help cement a strong start to the year as they look to take down yet another AFC West title. The Chiefs could really be looking to take care of business, and that would give them a strong shot to cover the -7.5 points.
Best bet for Chiefs vs. Chargers: Chargers +0.5, first quarter spread (-112, DraftKings)
The less time that comes off the clock, the more variance there is in a bet. Quarter bets introduce more variance than halftime bets, and much more than full-game bets. This happens because over the course of 60 minutes the true talent of both teams is more likely to play out.
There could be value in taking this full 7.5-point spread on the Chargers given the murkiness around Herbert. If he does return, the closing line scenario discussed earlier will come into effect. Nevertheless, a first-quarter wager can lower the variance. In the case that Herbert plays, this first quarter bet should move from -108 to something in the range of -103 to +100. That will create about 0.5 cents of value on the wager. If Herbert sits, the number shouldn’t move too far off of +0.5 points at -108. So while that could have a negative expectation in the long run, it offers upside for taking on the Herbert bet.
Finally, this is a big divisional matchup for which the Chargers will certainly be motivated. That and the loss of their quarterback could energize the Chargers, especially in the early going. While these sorts of narratives are difficult to price, they are certainly worth considering in wagers like this.