Mets vs. Braves odds, preview, predictions and best bets

Get the latest betting odds and best bets for the Mets vs. Braves series, with six games to go in the 2024 MLB season.

WHO	New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
WHEN	Tuesday, September 24, 2024 at 7:20 P.M. ET
WHERE	Truist Park | Atlanta, Georgia
HOW	Bally Sports South, SNY

The National League Wild Card race is coming down to the wire. After 156 games, the New York Mets control their destiny with a two-game lead over the Atlanta Braves for the NL Wild Card. The NL East rivals will kick off a three-game series in Atlanta on Tuesday that could make or break the race. 

The Mets have an 87-69 and are one-half game ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final playoff spot. The Braves enter the series at 85-71, needing to win two of the three games to keep the Mets from clinching a playoff berth. Atlanta has not missed the postseason since 2017, but an injury-plagued season that saw superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. go down with a knee injury in May might have the Braves on the outside looking in for the first time in seven years. 

The Braves are favored on the money line in Tuesday’s series opener at -145, with the Mets at +122 at Caesars Sportsbook.

If the Mets take two games in this series, they will clinch their second postseason appearance in three years. New York missed the playoffs every season from 2017-21.

While the Diamondbacks still could falter and give the Braves breathing room following their showdown with the Mets, a playoff spot is likely to be decided over the next three games. That means both teams will be putting in their best effort to win every contest, setting up unique ways to attack the current betting odds at the top sportsbooks.

Fade the Pitchers

Tuesday’s game is a de facto playoff matchup for the Braves. They will not be eliminated from the postseason with a loss, but any slip-up significantly will decrease their chances. With their backs against the wall, the Braves will turn to rookie starting pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach. The converted shortstop has been coming into his own during the second half of the 2024 season. Schwellenbach posted 60 strikeouts over 55.1 innings in July and August, stretching out to over 90 pitches in all but two outings and posting an ERA just south of 3.00. However, the right-hander has slowed down in September, recording fewer strikeouts and pitches, as he prepares for the biggest start of his career. 

The Mets will send veteran Luis Severino to the mound. Severino has had a solid season in Queens after coming over from the crosstown Yankees in the offseason. Having pitched in the Bronx, Severino is no stranger to big matchups, and he will get another shot in the spotlight on Tuesday night.

Despite Severino’s experience and Schwellenbach’s raw talent, both pitchers are strong fades based on their recent form and the nature of this series. The Braves will be quick to pull Schwellenbach if he underperforms or shows serious rookie jitters in the early going. The Mets have a little more room for error, but they also will be eager to lock up a playoff berth. If Severino gets into any trouble, it could mean an early end to his night. If both starters are out, all bets are off on how this will go. 

Atlanta does have one of the strongest bullpens, with its 6.0 WAR ranking third in the majors, according to FanGraphs. The Mets’ relievers aren’t too far behind with a 3.6 WAR that puts them in the top half of the league. But the short leash on these starters means the top guys in these bullpens will not be coming in until much later, if they’re needed at all, and the hitters will get to see the weakest long relievers from both squads in the event a starter is knocked out early. 

Best bet for Mets vs. Braves: Over 8 (-115, FanDuel)

The total for this game opened at over/under eight runs, with -112 juiced to the Over. That number is a bit low, particularly because of the vulnerability of the starting pitching. If the Mets get to Schwellenbach early, it will mean that the Braves pass things off to the back end of the bullpen.

When managers plan to get to to their bullpen early or have a scheduled “bullpen game” that does not use a traditional starter, there often is less scoring. This is because teams can match up arms. Lefties come in to face more left-handed hitters, and right-handed batters can expect to see more righty arms. Managers can play the odds too, and with the stronger probability of getting outs in better matchups, they can mix and match their bullpen as the game goes along. Yet, this often goes out the window when a long reliever – usually a mop-up guy – has to replace the starter in the early innings. All these circumstances surrounding the short leashes on Severino and Schwellenbach are unlikely to factor into the market, leaving a bit of edge on the Over at the current odds.

There is a second caveat in the early going of this Mets-Braves odds market that bettors should consider. One of the variables for which the market has yet to account is the weather. While it has been reasonably cool in Atlanta for this time of year over the past several days, it reached 90 degrees on Monday, and Tuesday could see temperatures as high as 91. Baseballs typically travel better in humid air, meaning more runs are scored in the summer. Sharp bettors and syndicates will account for this in their models, but with the day off and the expectation of cooler weather, that has yet to happen. 

An over/under of 8 runs is too low for this kind of hitting environment. It’s likely that the market will adjust to the conditions as the day goes on, but if you can grab the Over early, you should be able to sneak in some value against the closing line before MLB betting modelers catch on and move this number to 8.5.