Preview, picks and best bets for Guardians-Yankees in ALCS

What to look for as the AL East and Central winners meet to decide the pennant

The Yankees are one step closer to their first trip to the World Series since 2009, while the Guardians are seeking the franchise’s first championship in nearly 80 years. New York got to this point by defeating the Kansas City Royals in the ALDS. It took four closely-contested games for the Yankees to advance – thanks to Giancarlo Stanton and strong pitching out of the bullpen. 

Beyond Stanton, New York boasts arguably the majors’ best lineup duo in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. That has been a challenge for all American League clubs this season, but Cleveland has the arms to it – especially its relievers. The Guardians greatest strength this season has been their effectiveness on the mound in late innings. 

The Guardians went the distance in their Division Series against Detroit, in which no starter went deeper than the fifth inning. In the deciding game, manager Stephen Vogt used eight different pitchers and his lineup produced a big inning against Tarik Skubal to overcome the Tigers. Cleveland’s hitters are headed by Steven Kwan, who produced a record 11 hits in the ALDS, and José Ramírez, who had 39 home runs during the regular season. 

The Yankees won the head-to-head over the Guardians in 2024, taking four out of the six matchups. These franchises have met six times in the postseason, with New York winning four – including the last three dating back to 2017. 

Below are tips and a best bet for the ALCS, which are available to make at the best online sportsbooks.

Yankees to win series 4-3 (+425, DraftKings)

Taking New York to win outright, regardless of how many games, does not present value at -190. Determining the length of a series is like threading a needle. Choosing the Yankees in five has the same price as picking them to win in seven. Choosing them in six is slightly less (+325). A sweep is the longest shot (+750). 

Cleveland is remarkably deep in the bullpen, anchored by closer Emmauel Clase, and utilized that advantage in beating the Tigers. It’s a big reason why the Guardians had the third-best record in one-run games (26-19). However, the heavy usage might have its effect in a long series as opposing batters become more familiar with the relief arms. 

New York can get some length from its starters – especially Gerrit Cole, who is scheduled to make the start in Games 2 and 6. He has a wealth of October experience and closed out the Royals in Game 4 of the ALDS with seven strong innings in which he allowed one run on six hits. Looking ahead to a potential Game 7, Clarke Schmidt had a stellar year with a 2.85 regular season ERA. And New York’s bullpen proved it can do the job – not allowing a run in 15.2 innings against Kansas City. 

The Yankees edge is evident, but suggests something that may take time to develop, making a Game 7 win the way to handicap.

A $20 bet at +425 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook would result in a $85 payout.

José Ramírez to record 4+ stolen bases (+520, FanDuel)

Call it the Shohei Ohtani effect, but Ramírez was close to having the quietest 40-40 season ever. He ultimately ended up with a career-high 41 steals to complement the 39 bombs.

Cleveland’s offense has its limitations. If the Guardians are going to keep up with the Yankee bats, they will have to be aggressive and generate run-scoring opportunities on the basepaths. Ramírez’s success in base stealing is predicated on his ability to get on base. That’s been something he’s done well against the Yankees – with a .333/.399/.569 slash line and a .968 OPS.

The Yankees were 21st in MLB in terms of caught stealing percentage. And at 20 percent, Austin Wells ranks 34th among catchers as far as throwing out runners attempting to swipe second base. 

A $20 winning bet made at FanDuel Sportsbook at +520 odds would bring back a $104 payout.

Juan Soto to win series MVP (+370, FanDuel)

Aaron Judge remains the favorite for this award at +200, despite a poor showing in the ALDS. It’s hard to argue with this; recent history suggests Judge will break out of his October funk, even if postseason history doesn’t. The Guardians, though, have the quality arms that could neutralize the Yankees slugger.

Going slightly down the board, Soto’s resume signals better value in this scenario. There’s what he did this year: 41 homers, 109 RBIs, and a 178 OPS+. He also tallied six hits, three homers, and drove in nine runs against Guardian pitching. There’s what he’s done over his seven-year career, including six seasons with an OPS greater than .900. 

And then there are the postseason accomplishments. As a member of the Washington Nationals in 2019, he posted a 1.178 OPS with three home runs and seven RBI in the World Series. 

Soto can produce in a multitude of ways – with power, timely hitting, and getting on base. 

A $20 winning wager at +370 odds on FanDuel would result in a $104 payout.

Cleveland wins Game 1/Yankees win series (+370, DraftKings)

Cleveland gets the benefit of facing left-hander Carlos Rodón in Game 1, who’s coming off a woeful performance last week at Yankee Stadium. Factor in, too, that the Guardians are a top-10 offense versus lefties with a .751 OPS.

Their bullpen arms get a breather with the hopes that Alex Cobb can get a requisite number of outs. Cobb recently came off the IL after nursing a blister in his pitching hand. He ended up making three regular season starts and his ALDS outing went just three innings in which he allowed two runs. Using a larger sample size, Cobb induced groundballs 61.2% of the time – a useful way to mitigate the Yankees home run-hitting prowess. 

As mentioned earlier, bullpen knowledge should be a factor and may work against Cleveland’s greatest strength as the series carries along. Judge, Soto, Stanton, and the rest of the Yankees lineup can get a better read on the bevy of Guardians relievers and utilize that knowledge to get to four victories. 

A $20 winning bet at +370 odds on DraftKings yields a $74 payout.