Best anytime touchdown bets tonight for Cowboys vs. Steelers

An over/under of 43.5 means points will be scored. Who will reach paydirt?

The Sunday Night Football game in Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season features the Dallas Cowboys (2-2) visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1). Relative to expectations, the Cowboys have underperformed so far this season while the Steelers are exceeding expectations. This game should be interesting as we’ll see if each of those trends continues for another week.

The Steelers are the betting favorites at -3 against the spread while the over/under is set at 43.5 total points at DraftKings Sportsbook

One of the key matchups to watch in this game is Cowboys star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb against talented Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr. The son of Steelers legend Joey Porter has been excellent so far in his second season, but he has yet to face any receivers of Lamb’s caliber. Lamb had his best game of the season last week after being visibly upset about his lack of targets in the previous game, and he could be trending towards another big game in this matchup.

Does that mean that Lamb is a good bet to score a touchdown in this game? Let’s discuss some of the best anytime touchdown prop bets in this Cowboys vs. Steelers matchup. We have compared the odds across the best online sportsbooks and have included the best odds currently available for the players discussed below. Of course, you should still double-check the odds before placing any bets, as they are always subject to change. 

CeeDee Lamb (+110, FanDuel Sportsbook)

We already teased this pick, so we might as well dive right into it. Lamb has a great matchup in this game for a few reasons. First, while Porter Jr. will be a tough cover whenever Lamb lines up out wide, the Cowboys frequently take advantage of Lamb’s versatility by moving him all around the formation to get the best matchups. That means he could be seeing heavy usage in the slot in this game, where he will have a huge advantange against undrafted rookie slot corner Beanie Bishop Jr. Lamb has been one of the most productive receivers in the league when lined up in the slot over the last several seasons.

We can also expect a pass-heavy game plan from the Cowboys in this game. Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott been highly ineffective in the rushing attack, which is a big reason that Dallas is dead last in rushing (75.3 yards per game) and second-to-last in yards per carry (3.5). By contrast, they have attempted the third-most passes and have the fifth-best passing offense this season. 

The Steelers have one of the best defenses overall in the league once again this season, against both the pass and the run, but they are much stronger against the run. They are 3rd in both DVOA and EPA per play against the run, but just 14th and 10th, respectively, in those same categories against the pass. The combination of the Cowboys’ weak ground game and the Steelers’ dominant run defense means that Dak Prescott should be very busy going to the air this week. That’s going to create even more opportunities for CeeDee Lamb to score a touchdown.

Jake Ferguson (+300, FanDuel)

The same logic as above also applies to the Cowboys’ second-best pass-catching threat, which is tight end Jake Ferguson. The third-year player from Wisconsin is second on the team in both targets and receptions, and he could see an uptick in volume this week with the team’s No. 2 wide receiver Brandin Cooks being placed on IR. 

Ferguson was second on the Cowboys in red zone targets last season with 24, just three shy of Lamb’s 27. The next closest pass catcher was running back Tony Pollard with 11. So far this season, nobody on the team has more than 2 targets inside the 20, but Ferguson is still clearly Prescott’s second-favorite option when the offense gets close to the endzone. He scored five touchdowns last season and has yet to score one this season, but this could be the week that changes.

Ferguson’s anytime TD odds vary pretty widely across different sportsbooks, but FanDuel currently has the best odds by a considerable margin. The next closest odds are +235 at Caesars, and DraftKings has these same odds as low as +210. That means you’re already getting some nice value on this bet just by getting the +290 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Justin Fields (+160, bet365)

Justin Fields is doing everything the Steelers need him to do while leading the team to their solid 3-1 record. He is getting rid of the ball quickly, making smart decisions, avoiding turnovers and doing damage with his legs. He is the only Steelers player so far this season with a rushing touchdown, and his three scores so far this season are already close to matching the four touchdowns he had in 13 games last season with the Bears.

The Cowboys’ defense is also extremely vulnerable against the run. Their run defense is just 26th overall (145.8 yards per game), and they are dead last in DVOA and 31st in EPA per play against the run. They have also allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing QBs (31.8 yards per game), including 87 yards and a touchdown to Lamar Jackson. Fields is not Jackson, but he is close when it comes to rushing ability.

 

Given the Cowboys’ porous run defense, we also considered picking Najee Harris here, especially since No. 2 running back Jaylen Warren has been ruled out for this game. However, Harris is priced at less than even money at every major sportsbook, including as low as -155 at Caesars. Those odds just don’t offer enough value, so picking Fields instead makes a lot more sense considering you can get him at +160 at bet365. It’s hard to justify Harris being priced so much lower than Fields, especially considering Harris hasn’t scored a touchdown yet this season and has only one more rushing attempt inside the red zone than Fields does.