Week 7 NFL quarterback rankings and tiers: A rookie ascends to the top

Ranking 28 NFL quarterbacks through the lens of their projected production in Week 7

With only two teams enjoying byes in Week 7, the NFL schedule is quite busy. Thursday’s game between the Denver Broncos and the New Orleans Saints is now in the books, but 28 squads will take the field on Sunday and Monday. That includes a pair of intriguing Monday night games and, in advance of Sunday’s 12-game slate, there are many opportunities for handicapping the action.

In this space, the focus is on the quarterback position with the aim of ranking the league’s signal callers using DraftKings Sportsbook projections in Week 7. This projection also uses standard fantasy scoring for the sake of clarity, with four points per passing touchdown, one point per 25 passing yards, one point per 10 rushing yards, and six points per rushing touchdown.

Here is a look at the quarterback hierarchy for Week 7.

Tier 1: Two-way forces

1 – Jayden Daniels (vs. Carolina)

Projections: 241.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 49.5 rush yards, 22.6 fantasy points

Jayden Daniels has been outstanding this season, throwing for more than 1,400 yards and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt. This week, he leads the way on the strength of both his arm and his legs, including the second-highest rushing projection of any quarterback. 

2 – Lamar Jackson (at Tampa Bay)

Projections: 227.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 50.5 rush yards, 22.2 fantasy points

Lamar Jackson is a staple near the top of these rankings, and he is perhaps the epitome of the blend between passing and rushing. Jackson has already eclipsed 400 rushing yards in 2024, and he has the highest rushing projection of any player on the list. He is also projected for multiple touchdown passes, after totaling 10 so far this season.

3 – Josh Allen (vs. Tennessee)

Projections: 214.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 29.5 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 21.5 fantasy points

Only one quarterback is projected to generate a rushing touchdown more often than not in Week 7, and his name is Josh Allen. His passing projection is far more modest than that of Jackson and Daniels, but Allen’s ability as a short-yardage rushing threat is huge to his value. 

Tier 2: Prolific passers

4 – Sam Darnold (vs. Detroit)

Projections: 257.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 14.5 rush yards, 19.8 fantasy points

Darnold is coming off his worst game of the season in a Week 5 loss to the Jets, but his season-long numbers are strong. That includes a top-five mark in passing touchdowns, even with Minnesota having a bye week already

5 – Brock Purdy (vs. Kansas City)

Projections: 253.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 15.5 rush yards, 19.7 fantasy points

From a passing perspective, Purdy may have the most consistent profile of any player in the NFL this season. He has thrown for at least 231 yards in every game, and Purdy is No. 2 in the NFL with 1,629 passing yards. He is also coming off a three-touchdown effort against Seattle a week ago.

6 – Patrick Mahomes (at San Francisco)

Projections: 240.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 20.5 rush yards, 19.7 fantasy points

It remains bizarre to see Mahomes with only six passing touchdowns and six interceptions for the season, even while leading an undefeated Chiefs team. His yardage production has picked up, including 331 passing yards in Week 5, and Mahomes is still commanding respect in the market.

7 – Geno Smith (at Atlanta)

Projections: 261.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 11.5 rush yards, 19.6 fantasy points

The NFL’s leading passer this season is Geno Smith, who has 1,778 passing yards in six games. He has thrown for at least 284 yards in five straight starts, and only one player has a higher projected passing total than Smith in Week 7. His value is only slightly reduced due to a lower projected rushing ceiling.

8 – C.J. Stroud (at Green Bay)

Projections: 257.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 9.5 rush yards, 19.3 fantasy points

As a passer, Stroud is well-established. He did not need to do much last week in a blowout win over the Patriots, but Stroud produced back-to-back 330-yard passing games before Week 6. Stroud is facing an interesting test against Green Bay on the road, but the projections are encouraging. 

9 – Joe Burrow (at Cleveland)

Projections: 254.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 9.5 rush yards, 19.1 fantasy points

Cincinnati’s Week 6 win over the New York Giants was a bit of a slog, but Burrow has been lighting up the stat sheet all season. He is in the top five of the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns, with Burrow completing well over 70 percent of his passes.

10 – Jordan Love (vs. Houston)

Projections: 249.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 8.5 rush yards, 18.8 fantasy points

Love has played only four games this season, but he is No. 2 in the NFL with 12 passing touchdowns. He has multiple touchdown passes in each game, including a pair of 4-TD outings, and Love is playing at home in a high-profile spot this week. 

11 – Kirk Cousins (vs. Seattle)

Projections: 266.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 18.7 fantasy points

The highest passing yardage projection of the week belongs to Cousins, who has a 500-yard passing day on his resume this season. Atlanta is also facing a Seattle defense that has some injury concerns, and the Falcons are giving Cousins the keys on a down-to-down basis. 

12 – Matthew Stafford (vs. Las Vegas)

Projections: 230.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 17.3 fantasy points

Stafford is seemingly enjoying a bump this week due to a friendly matchup. The Rams face a Raiders team that has allowed 30-plus points in back-to-back weeks against less than elite offenses. Stafford is also set to get a bump of health in the receiving corps. 

Tier 3: Enough running to get by

13 – Jalen Hurts (at N.Y. Giants)

Projections: 215.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 37.5 rush yards, 16.4 fantasy points

Hurts is in the bottom half among NFL quarterbacks in both passing yards and passing touchdowns this season. He is always a threat to find the end zone as a runner, but Hurts has only one rushing touchdown in the last three games. His rushing does boost his floor, but the high-value runs have slowed in 2024. 

14 – Kyler Murray (vs. L.A. Chargers)

Projections: 212.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 33.5 rush yards, 15.9 fantasy points

Murray remains a two-way threat, generating at least 45 rushing yards in four separate games this season. However, his passing volume is a bit lower, and Marvin Harrison Jr. is returning from a concussion he suffered last week. Arizona is also facing a stingy Los Angeles Chargers defense in Week 7. 

15 – Baker Mayfield (vs. Baltimore)

Projections: 256.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 14.5 rush yards, 15.7 fantasy points

Mayfield leads the NFL with 15 passing touchdowns, but he is projected for only one passing score in Week 7. That modest projection seems a bit low, considering the Ravens have been one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL so far in 2024.

16 – Anthony Richardson (vs. Miami)

Projections: 199.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 34.5 rush yards, 15.4 fantasy points

Richardson has not appeared in a game since suffering an injury against Pittsburgh on Sept. 29. That leaves a great deal of uncertainty for the former first-round pick, but the market believes in his rushing ability when Richardson is on the field.

17 – Daniel Jones (vs. Philadelphia)

Projections: 209.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 29.5 rush yards, 15.3 fantasy points

Jones is riding a strong streak of production, with four straight games of at least 205 passing yards. He also has 95 rushing yards in the last two games combined, and New York is facing a potentially vulnerable Philadelphia defense this week. 

18 – Drake Maye (vs. Jacksonville in London)

Projections: 205.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 29.5 rush yards, 15.2 fantasy points

Drake Maye’s first start ran the gamut. The Patriots lost by 20 points at home in Week 6, but the rookie generated three passing touchdowns and rushed for 38 yards. He clearly brings upside to New England’s offense, and the Patriots meet the Jaguars in London on Sunday morning. Jacksonville gave up four passing touchdowns to another rookie quarterback (Caleb Williams) a week ago.

19 – Tyler Huntley (at Indianapolis)

Projections: 184.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 31.5 rush yards, 14.5 fantasy points

Miami’s offense has floundered in the absence of Tua Tagovailoa, especially when it comes to passing production. Huntley’s passing projection is relatively meager, but he does have the ability to impact the game as a runner from the quarterback position. 

20 – Trevor Lawrence (vs. New England in London)

Projections: 235.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 10.5 rush yards, 14.5 fantasy points

The Jaguars continue to struggle badly in an overall sense, which might push Lawrence down the list from a perception perspective. He does have more than 600 passing yards in the last two games combined, and Jacksonville is playing its second straight game in London.

Tier 4: Middling production

21 – Jared Goff (at Minnesota)

Projections: 250.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 1.5 rush yards, 14.2 fantasy points

Goff’s passing yardage projection brings a relatively solid floor. However, Detroit must play on the road in Minnesota, and he is projected for only one passing score and essentially no rushing production. The matchup is difficult, at the very least. 

22 – Andy Dalton (at Washington)

Projections: 237.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 4.5 rush yards, 14.0 fantasy points

Dalton’s first start went beautifully but, since then, the Panthers are 0-3. As such, the shine is off for the veteran, but Carolina does have the chance to put up some numbers against a Washington defense that can be exploited. 

23 – Deshaun Watson (vs. Cincinnati)

Projections: 183.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 24.5 rush yards, 13.8 fantasy points

Each week brings a new set of stats focused on the ineptitude of the Browns offense under Watson’s leadership at the quarterback position. The reason he is not in the basement is his rushing, with 148 yards and a touchdown on the ground in 2024. 

24 – Aaron Rodgers (at Pittsburgh)

Projections: 227.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 2.5 rush yards, 13.4 fantasy points

On the positive side, the Jets were the talk of the league again this week after trading for Davante Adams. That should raise Rodgers’ ceiling, but in Week 7 particularly, the market is tepid. New York hasn’t produced at a high level, and a matchup against Pittsburgh’s strong defense is not what the doctor ordered. 

Tier 5: The basement

25 – Aidan O’Connell (at L.A. Rams)

Projections: 208.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 12.4 fantasy points

O’Connell did throw for 227 yards in Week 6, even against a stellar Pittsburgh defense. However, he hasn’t generated a single rushing attempt in three appearances this season. 

26 – Justin Herbert (at Arizona)

Projections: 197.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 12.0 fantasy points

Herbert has been reasonably efficient this season, but he has only 815 passing yards in five games. He has averaged only 25 passing attempts per game in 2024, with only 26 rushing yards in those five outings.

27 – Mason Rudolph (at Buffalo)

Projections: 183.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 12.6 fantasy points

Rudolph will make his first start of the season, in place of Will Levis, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. Expectations are low for Rudolph, although it will be difficult to be worse than Levis, who leads the NFL in turnovers.

28 – Russell Wilson (vs. N.Y. Jets)

Projections: 179.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 11.2 fantasy points

All signs point to Wilson as the starter for Pittsburgh this week. Wilson is seen in the market as a potential passing upgrade, though he is not on the level of rusher that Fields has proven to be over an extended sample.