In the land of the Hot Seat Rankings, security reigns (this season).
Over the last two seasons, a total of 53 coaching changes have been made. That's almost 40% of FBS. In the last three years, there have been 71 changes (53% of FBS). The market just may be exhausted -- at least financially -- from coach firings.
We enter Week 9 experiencing a rarity: no college football coaches having been fired for performance. This despite, over the last three years, a combined 26 coaches being fired during the season (18 in Power Five jobs).
Michigan State's Mel Tucker was fired amid sexual harassment allegations during the season, and Northwestern's Pat Fitzgerald lost his job amid hazing allegations before the campaign kicked off.
It shouldn't be a surprise that our first in-season Hot Seat Rankings of the year include only two coaches who are definitely in danger of losing their jobs. Even then, Arkansas' Sam Pittman and Indiana's Tom Allen would be owed a combined $36 million in buyout money if they were axed.
So … fire beware?
That's not to say the usual rash of firings cannot or will not take place down the stretch.
We're including a variety of coaches in this update, including notable names who are holding steady and others who have slid off some sort of hot seat.
Among the coaches included are three of the game's giants -- Michigan's Jim Harbaugh, Clemson's Dabo Swinney and USC's Lincoln Riley -- none of whom are in danger of losing their jobs yet all of whom are facing circumstances that are testing their mettle.
In the case of Harbaugh, Captain Quirk has brought it on himself. But winning percentage trumps all. We have summarized the state of affairs for three coaches making a combined $29 million per year with buyouts totaling $91 million. Much is expected of those earning that much.
For all of them, it will be interesting to observe how the market, money and football resolve each situation.
A reminder about our ratings key (and our complete set of preseason Hot Seat Rankings):
- 5 -- Win or be fired
- 4 -- Star improving now
- 3 -- Pressure is mounting
- 2 -- All good ... for now
- 1 -- Safe and secure
- 0 -- Untouchable
2023 Hot Seat Rankings: Midseason update
Staying hot
| Team | Coach | Rating | Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Tom Allen | 5 | Allen has appeared on this list too often, but it may not matter. His future just might be just a case of IU being able to afford his payout, which is significant -- $20 million if fired before December 2024. The Hoosiers are 6-21 since early in 2021. There are still four years to go on Allen's contract after this season. He signed a new seven-year deal in 2021. Indiana sits at 2-5, the worst record for any team with a coach who entered the season as a "5" or "4" in our rankings. Preseason rating: 5 |
 | Jimbo Fisher | 4 | Jimbo has been living rent-free in this space for some time, sliding on and off the hot seat. For now, it's another middling season (4-3). In Year 6, Fisher is 43-24 (10-12 in his last 22 games) with no division titles and one New Year's Six bowl. The cigars at TAMU have 77.562 million reasons to get rid of their coach. Once again, injuries have played a part, but such excuses only go so far. Utah is gunning for a playoff spot with a former walk-on who once worked at Lowe's at QB. In some ways, don't blame Fisher, blame the system. To get rid of any one of the 10 highest-paid coaches, it would take an average buyout of $62 million. Preseason rating: 4 |
West Virginia's Neal Brown, New Mexico's Danny Gonzales, Syracuse's Dino Babers, Arkansas State's Butch Jones and Rice's Mike Bloomgren all maintained their preseason spots firmly on the hot seat. Their teams are all hovering around .500 having played seven games each (4-3 or 3-4).
Warming up
| Team | Coach | Rating | Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|
 | JIm Harbaugh | 3 | The ultimate Michigan Man could be a football version of Jerry Tarkanian. A brilliant coach with multiple NCAA allegations annually chasing a title. Harbaugh has his best team at Michigan, a true contender. Also, he's no doubt driving his bosses crazy. At the same time they were considering a contract extension, news broke of the sign-stealing scandal. Like Tark, Harbaugh is a brilliant coach but a different dude. He may not care about the perceived gray area. Could the outside noise actually inspire the players? Preseason rating: 0 |
 | Sam Pittman | 3 | Two years ago, Pittman won nine games beating Texas, Texas A&M, LSU and Penn State. But Hogs fans are as fickle as any. They were outraged Saturday during an anemic 7-3 loss to Mississippi State. Pittman admitted he "didn't know what to do, to be perfectly honest with you" in taking a delay of game penalty instead of kicking a long field. Offensive coordinator Dan Enos was then fired. You can only fire so many people until they start looking at the throne. Pittman is the likeable everyman, but he's becoming a victim of the times. The Hogs have slumped losing six in a row and looking bad doing it. Pittman is 21-23 in his fourth season and would be owed $16.1 million. Preseason rating: 1 |
 | Brady Hoke | 3 | The Mountain West is poised to become the strongest league outside the power conferences. It will have a good look at a playoff spot most seasons. SDSU should be a big part of that, but the Aztecs just got shut out by winless Nevada, which had lost 16 in a row, while giving up the most yards per game nationally. SDSU is in a rut after being within shouting distance of a Pac-12 invite (when there was a Pac-12). The Aztecs are 10-11 since a 12-win season in 2021. SDSU needs a jolt of energy, but first, it would have to come up with Hoke's $5 million buyout. Preseason rating: 2 |
Not as cool
| Team | Coach | Rating | Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Dabo Swinney | 2 | Dabo is not taking the possible end of a dynasty well. Last week, he criticized fans' expectations (that his teams' prior excellence set). Then the Tigers blew a 17-7 lead at Miami, losing in OT. Clemson has already lost 3+ games in three straight seasons for the first time since 2009-11 and still needs two wins to get bowl eligible. This is getting uncomfortable. Dabo needs to jump into the transfer portal to some degree and revamp a stale roster. The brand still resonates, and if the school gets its way, it may resonate in the Big Ten or SEC in the future. A big part of that depends on the Tigers winning football games at a high rate. Preseason rating: 0 |
 | Lincoln Riley | 1 | Halfway through Year 2, Riley is at a crossroads. His defense is absolutely not good enough. Utah -- with less talent and speed -- has beaten the Trojans four straight times. Stresses are showing. Riley suspended a reporter (before reinstating him). Then he didn't make players available to the media after Saturday's loss. It's L.A. You not only have to win, you have to entertain. USC isn't doing either often enough. Expect some coaching changes and another roster overhaul as Caleb Williams heads to the NFL. For now, the arrow is pointing down with games still left against Oregon, Washington and UCLA. Preseason rating: 0 |
Holding steady
| Team | Coach | Rating | Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Billy Napier | 2 | Napier was going to be given time after a 6-7 debut unless there was a complete collapse. A 5-2 start and the development of Graham Mertz has provided optimism going into a shot at No. 1 Georgia this week. The opening-night loss to Utah looks better by the day. The schedule is a bear down the stretch, but a mid-level bowl would definitely signal progress, especially if Mertz comes back in 2024 with DJ Lagway joining the team. Preseason rating: 2 |
 | Marcus Freeman | 2 | Perception is a week-to-week proposition at Notre Dame. That said, a New Year's Six bowl would represent progress in Year 2. The Fighting Irish came out of a recent slog 2-2 (Ohio State, Duke, Louisville, USC). They're riding a rout of USC into the final four games -- all winnable (Pittsburgh, Clemson, Wake Forest, Stanford) -- to get to the required 10 wins. If that happens, the difference between a major bowl and a CFP berth may ultimately be the ability to count to 11. Preseason rating: 2 |
Cooling off
| Team | Coach | Rating | Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Brent Venables | 1 | The former Clemson defensive coordinator was in the same box as Napier -- a disappointing 6-7 debut, questions about the future. Turns out, Venables just needed a year to get adjusted and flip the roster. Well, that and turn loose Heisman Trophy candidate Dillon Gabriel. The defense should be better, but it is allowing an average of 102 fewer yards per game. In Year 2, the Sooners control their fate for a CFP berth. Preseason rating: 3 |
 | Greg Schiano | 1 | The last time Schiano was bowl eligible with a winning record was 12 years ago during his initial run with Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are 6-2, off to their best eight-game start since 2012. That despite playing in the tough Big Ten East. The schedule is backloaded with Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State and Maryland, but the season is already a success considering the win total expectation was four. Schiano has been through a lot since his first run at Rutgers. He deserves every minute of this. Preseason rating: 2 |
 | Eli Drinkwitz | 2 | Drink came into the season with a sub-.500 record (17-19). He has already clinched his first winning season with the Tigers, which are off to their best start since 2013. Check the schedule. The season is all in front of them beginning with a trip to No. 1 Georgia in two weeks. An improved defense and faith in native son Brady Cook at quarterback is the recipe for 10 wins. Preseason rating: 3 |
 | Chuck Martin | 2 | Going into the season, the former Notre Dame offensive coordinator was 45-59 in nine years. Take away a 2009 MAC title and that record was 37-53. Prior to a narrow loss Saturday to Toledo, the RedHawks had won six in a row including at Cincinnati, now in the Big 12. At 6-2, Miami is in line for its best season since winning 10 games in 2010. Preseason rating: 3 |
 | David Braun | n/a | Braun had that Thousand-Yard Stare in July after suddenly being chosen to replace Pat Fitzgerald. Las Vegas' win total was three for a team picked to finish last in the Big Ten West before the scandal hit. Braun, the former defensive coordinator, has the Wildcats at 3-4 with bowl eligibility not out of the question. Northwestern is out looking for a Fitzgerald replacement. The right guy might be right down the hall. Preseason rating: n/a |
