A new top tier: Week 6 NFL quarterback rankings and tiers

After a slow start, offense is picking up across the NFL and, as always, the quarterback position is in the center of the frame. Week 6 began with an intriguing battle between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday evening, but the avalanche of professional football action arrives on Sunday with a full schedule before it is capped off on Monday evening.

Before Sunday’s action begins, take a deep dive into the quarterback position through the lens of what the prop bet market projects for each signal-caller scheduled to take the field. This projection also uses standard fantasy scoring for the sake of clarity with four points per passing touchdown, one point per 25 passing yards, one point per 10 rushing yards, and six points per rushing touchdown. Let’s break down the quarterback landscape in Week 6.

Projections were taken from some of the top NFL sportsbooks and are accurate as of late Saturday.

Tier 1: The 20-point club

1 – Jalen Hurts

Projections: 227.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 41.5 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 23.3 fantasy points

Only one quarterback is projected to reach the end zone as a rusher this week, and that is the impetus for Hurts’ placement at the very top of the heap. He is also in the top 10 among passing yardage projections, but Hurts’ value as a short-yardage weapon is undeniable.

2 – Lamar Jackson

Projections: 222.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 56.5 rush yards, 22.6 fantasy points

As often is the case, Jackson has the loftiest rushing projection of any quarterback this week. He is averaging 6.8 yards per carry and more than 70 rushing yards per game in 2024, with Jackson also bringing a ton of value with his arm.

3 – Dak Prescott

Projections: 281.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 8.5 rush yards, 20.1 fantasy points

Prescott has 293 passing yards or more in three of the last four games, including a 352-yard effort last week on the road in Pittsburgh. No player is projected for more passing yards this week than Prescott, and the Cowboys continue to rely on his abilities.

Tier 2: High-end production

4 – Joe Burrow

Projections: 263.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 9.5 rush yards, 19.5 fantasy points

The Bengals fell to 1-4 with an overtime loss to Baltimore a week ago, but Burrow was incredible in that matchup. He averaged 10.1 yards per pass attempt with five passing touchdowns in the game, and Week 6 brings a softer matchup against the Giants.

5 – Jordan Love

Projections: 257.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 6.5 rush yards, 19.0 fantasy points

Love has the third-highest projection when it comes to passing yards this week. That combines a friendly matchup with a potent offense, and Love has a bevy of talented pass-catchers to help with extra yardage after the catch.

6 – Kirk Cousins

Projections: 251.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 18.1 fantasy points

The entire NFL witnessed Cousins’ explosion in Week 5, as he threw for more than 500 yards in a home win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday evening. That can’t be expected on a regular basis, but Cousins is seemingly finding his stride in Atlanta as the team relies more on his right arm.

7 – Jared Goff

Projections: 246.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 17.9 fantasy points

The Detroit Lions are well-rested after a bye in Week 5, and Goff is coming off a performance in which he completed all 18 of his pass attempts in a win over Seattle. He doesn’t offer anything on the ground, but Goff has the fifth-highest mark in projected passing yards.

8 – Jayden Daniels

Projections: 224.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 48.5 rush yards, 17.8 fantasy points

Jayden Daniels is the talk of the NFL after leading the Washington Commanders to four straight victories. Because he faces a difficult matchup against Baltimore, Daniels is projected to throw for only one touchdown pass, but it is a testament to him that he remains in the top eight on account of his dual-threat ability.

Tier 3: The middle

9 – Josh Allen

Projections: 209.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 35.5 rush yards, 15.9 fantasy points

Josh Allen is always a threat to find the end zone as a ball-carrier but, this week, he is not projected to generate a rushing score. That drops him to this placement, but Allen is still firmly in the top 10 overall.

10 – Daniel Jones

Projections: 208.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 35.5 rush yards, 15.9 fantasy points

The beginning of the 2024 campaign wasn’t kind to Jones, but in his last three games he has played well. That includes 257 passing yards and two touchdowns last week, and Jones remains an undervalued rushing threat.

11 – Kyler Murray

Projections: 213.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 32.5 rush yards, 15.8 fantasy points

On one hand, Murray hasn’t reached 200 passing yards in two straight games, and his passing projection has dipped in conjunction. On the other, he enjoyed his best rushing game of the season in Week 5, and Murray may be asked to carry a big load against Green Bay.

12 – Caleb Williams

Projections: 242.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 19.5 rush yards, 15.7 fantasy points

Williams has at least 300 passing yards in two of his last three starts. This week, he leads the Bears against the Jaguars in London, which projects as a pretty friendly matchup for passing offenses.

13 – Justin Fields

Projections: 179.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 39.5 rush yards, 15.1 fantasy points

Whispers are beginning to circle that Fields could give way to Russell Wilson at some point, but he’s still expected to be the guy in Week 6. Fields is a proven rushing entity, and he looks to bounce back from a 131-yard passing effort a week ago.

14 – Baker Mayfield

Projections: 232.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 10.5 rush yards, 14.4 fantasy points

Mayfield has been highly efficient this season, completing more than 70 percent of his passes with 11 passing touchdowns and only two interceptions. Tampa Bay did rely heavily on its running game in Week 5, though, and this is a potentially dicey matchup against New Orleans on the road.

15 – C.J. Stroud

Projections: 234.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 8.5 rush yards, 14.2 fantasy points

In the last two weeks, Stroud has 676 passing yards, and Houston’s passing attack is finding its footing. He isn’t projected to do much as a rusher, but one more productive week could raise the projections for Stroud moving forward.

16 – Trevor Lawrence

Projections: 229.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 9.5 rush yards, 14.1 fantasy points

Lawrence, the former No. 1 overall pick, finally found his stride in Week 5 and led his team to its first win of the campaign. He threw for 371 yards and two touchdowns against Indianapolis, and Lawrence will be at “home” as the Jags play in London this Sunday.

Tier 4: Enough to get by

17 – Deshaun Watson

Projections: 189.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 21.5 rush yards, 13.7 fantasy points

Watson still has not reached 200 passing yards in any start this season. Some of his more advanced numbers are even more dire, but a reasonably strong rushing projection keeps him near the middle of the pack.

18 – Bo Nix

Projections: 187.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 21.5 rush yards, 13.7 fantasy points

Following a dismal Week 4 in which he threw for only 60 yards, Nix bounced back with 206 yards and two touchdowns in Week 5. He still relies on his legs to avoid the basement, but the Broncos have shown some signs of progress in recent weeks.

19 – Andy Dalton

Projections: 221.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 3.5 rush yards, 13.2 fantasy points

Dalton has been an undeniable upgrade for Carolina, but his thunderous 2024 debut has given way to cooler performances in recent weeks. This time, he will face a potentially vulnerable Falcons defense.

20 – Drake Maye

Projections: 163.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 25.5 rush yards, 13.1 fantasy points

A new era begins for the New England Patriots in Week 6, as they are set to turn the reins over to rookie Drake Maye. Maye is projected to use his legs well in his first career start, but the Patriots do have limited weapons and an offensive line that is struggling mightily at this juncture.

Tier 5: The basement

21 – Aaron Rodgers

Projections: 221.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 12.9 fantasy points

The big news of the week in the NFL is the New York Jets making a move to part ways with head coach Robert Saleh. It remains to be seen if that will change anything for New York’s offense, but Rodgers is in the bottom third of the projections based on uneven performance this season and very little rushing appeal.

22 – Spencer Rattler

Projections: 186.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 14.5 rush yards, 12.9 fantasy points

Derek Carr is unavailable with injury, and that will thrust Spencer Rattler into the starting lineup for the first time. It will be Rattler’s first career start, but he has a reasonable rushing floor and a big arm to lean on against Tampa Bay.

23 – Will Levis

Projections: 192.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 11.5 rush yards, 12.9 fantasy points

After a bye week, Levis is expected to start, even as he has battled a shoulder issue. He has struggled this season, including six interceptions to four passing touchdowns, and the projections are modest as a result.

24 – Anthony Richardson

Projections: 195.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 11.8 fantasy points

There is some level of uncertainty about Richardson’s health and availability, though reports indicate he is likely to return and start for the Colts. If he plays at full strength, his rushing projection would soar above this, but the market is uncertain around the second-year quarterback given the injury.

25 – Aidan O’Connell

Projections: 185.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 2.5 rush yards, 11.7 fantasy points

O’Connell is in line for his start this season, though it is familiar territory for the young quarterback. He made 10 starts last year for Las Vegas, and entering the season, seemed to be not far behind Gardner Minshew in the quarterback battle.

26 – Justin Herbert

Projections: 183.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 11.3 fantasy points

Herbert is usually more of a runner than this projection indicates, but he battled an ankle injury before the Chargers bye week. As such, his rushing projection is in flux, and that pushes Herbert to the bottom. If he is proven to be able to move as normal, he would jump considerably, even as Los Angeles operates a slow-paced, run-based offense.