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Best bets and preview for Bills vs. Jets on Monday Night Football
See how oddsmakers are handicapping this AFC East battle
| WHO | Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets |
| WHEN | Monday, October 14, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET |
| WHERE | MetLife Stadium | East Rutherford, New Jersey |
| HOW | ABC/ESPN |
It’s been quite the week in Jetsland. The latest saga of this season came with the firing of head coach Robert Saleh and the demotion of offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Following a 2-1 start, New York had a disastrous 10-9 loss at home to Denver and then couldn’t dig itself out of an early hole against the Minnesota Vikings in London, prompting team owner Woody Johnson to make a drastic change. Aaron Rodgers and the Jets now look to regroup under Jeff Ulbrich, and a victory over Buffalo could move them into first place.
The Bills are also coming in off of back-to-back losses. Their 3-0 start has nearly been wiped away as the team’s early season questions are starting to come to the surface. Buffalo’s run defense was gashed by Derrick Henry on a Sunday night Week 4 loss in Baltimore. Last Sunday, C.J. Stroud threw for 331 yards, while Josh Allen only had nine completions and 131 yards through the air. Questionable late-game play calling ultimately cost the Bills as Houston kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired.
These two AFC East rivals face off to determine who heads the standings and could have significance at season’s end. Over the past two seasons, the home team has won all four matchups between these two teams.
Here are some of the most recent odds that you can find at some of the top online sportsbooks.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills spread | -1.5 (-110) | -1 (-110) | -1 (-110) |
| Jets spread | +1.5 (-110) | -1 (-110) | +2.5 (-110) |
| Bills moneyline | -116 | -120 | -120 |
| Jets moneyline | -102 | +100 | +100 |
| Over | Over 40.5 (-115) | Over 40.5 (-112) | Over 41 (-110) |
| Under | Under 40.5 (-105) | Under 40.5 (-108) | Under 41 (-110) |
Why bet on the Bills
Buffalo could certainly return to the form that made itself one of the best teams over the first three weeks – putting up 31 or more points in each of those victories, Allen has the ability to look like an MVP-caliber player on any given day or night. In the two outings versus the Jets in 2023, Allen looked far better in the more recent one – a 36-6 victory on November 19 in upstate New York. That day, he completed 20-of-32 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns. Allen will benefit from having his running back James Cook in the lineup to give him and the Bills a much-needed resource on offense, assuming Cook is healthy enough to suit up.
There are also two things potentially going against the Jets that work in the Bills favor. One is New York’s inability to move the ball downfield. Its rushing offense is the third-worst in the NFL in terms of per-game yardage. Buffalo is not particularly strong in stopping the run, but it will get linebacker Terrel Bernard back into the lineup and Dorian Williams leads the NFL with 54 combined tackles.
The Jets’ best passing effort all year came in Week 3 against New England, when Rodgers accounted for 281 and two touchdowns on a 77.1 percent completion percentage. In their other four games, Rodgers has just five passing TDs while throwing four interceptions with a completion percentage of 57.1%.
Secondly, and partially tied to the first – the firing of Saleh and the demotion of Hackett can be deemed as rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Perhaps the internal issues haven’t been rectified and morale remains low after this mid-season shift.
Why to bet on the Jets
This is basically a make-or-break game for them. Not to say that it isn’t a must-win for the Bills too, but how this Monday game plays out for New York’s new personnel will go a long way to determining whether the season will turn around. The changes on the staff could be the spark this offense needs to eliminate the mistakes that have been made over the past two weeks. This will also be a much easier matchup than the defenses they have faced the last two weeks. The Bills are 23rd-ranked against the run and could struggle against the Jets’ rushing attack which would then open up play-action situations for Rodgers.
The New York defense has been consistently great. Since Week 2, it’s the second-best in the league in EPA per play. For the season, it has allowed the second-fewest yards per game. Allen’s performances against the Jets in MetLife Stadium have not been good of late. In his last two outings, he has one touchdown pass and five interceptions and has been sacked 10 times.
This, coupled with Buffalo short in wide receiver help, heavily favors New York to further exploit the Bills passing efforts. Khalil Shakir may not play and his absence last week was evidenced by Allen’s low number of completions. Beyond that, it’s hard to find who will step up. Keon Coleman has shown promise with two touchdown catches, but the rookie has just 16 targets and nine receptions for 175 on the year.
Best bet for Bills vs. Jets: Jets money line (+100, DraftKings)
The point spread on this game has gone from Buffalo -2 (and -2.5 in some spots) to essentially a pick ‘em. Taking the Jets with the spread, therefore, presents little value. It makes more sense to choose them for the outright win on the money line at even odds.
Perhaps both Buffalo’s early season success and New York’s recent downturn can be explained. The Bills’ victories came against Arizona, Miami and Jacksonville – three teams with losing records – before getting exposed by division leaders Baltimore and Houston. The Jets’ uninspiring showings on offense recently were against two of the three best defenses in EPA per play.
New York’s secondary of D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner can clamp down on an opponent’s best receiving options. Unfortunately for Buffalo, they don’t have many – especially if Shakir is unable to suit up. Cook’s presence is needed in the backfield, but it’s uncertain how well he can perform. If the Bills can’t establish the run, Allen and the offense will be further compromised.
The Jets’ strengths should overwhelm the Buffalo passing game, while what has limited New York on offense can be aided by utilizing backs like Breece Hall and Braelon Allen against a sub-par Bills run defense and establish the long drives this team has been desperate for.