2019 NFL win totals: Vegas releases totals for all 32 teams, here are our favorite picks for 2019
CBS Sports writers and editors make their early picks for best bets on 2019 NFL win totals
The Westgate wasted no time following the 2019 NFL Draft, dropping over/under win totals for every single NFL team shortly after things wrapped up in Nashville. We're going to waste no time breaking them down: on Wednesday at noon ET, we'll be doing a special one-hour show on CBS Sports HQ (it's always on, it's always free and it's always great hardcore sports content) breaking down which teams have the most enticing odds to bet on as well as what these totals can tell us about various NFL teams.
Make sure and fire up the CBS Sports app on your phone or your favorite device (Apple TV, Roku, Fire, etc) to check it out or go to CBSSports.com/Live at noon and dive in.
Meanwhile, let's go ahead and provide you with a list of every single team as well as our favorite picks from all of our different staff writers and editors. You don't often get an overwhelming response when you ask for help on a story right after the draft, but everyone was eager to answer here, because of how enticing the over unders are for each team.
Make sure and listen to myself and R.J. White break down our favorite over/under bets on the Pick Six Podcast, our daily NFL podcast, also free to subscribe and listen.
First up, the table of all the teams. The number is the number of wins obviously and, if you're new to this, the number in the parenthesis is the juice. For instance, you have to bet $120 on the Cardinals over to net $100 if they won more than five games, while betting $100 on the Bills under would net you $140 if they won six games or less. Any questions, feel free and holler at me on Twitter @WillBrinson.
After that, you'll find the favorite over/under pick for staffers on our NFL team, including writers Ryan Wilson, John Breech, Sean Wagner-McGough and Jared Dubin, plus editors Kevin Steimle, R.J. White and Brett Anderson.
|ARI||5 (-120)||5 (+100)|
|ATL||8.5 (-120)||8.5 (+100)|
|BAL||8.5 (+100)||8.5 (-120)|
|BUF||6.5 (-160)||6.5 (+140)|
|CAR||8 (+100)||8 (-120)|
|CHI||9 (-120)||9 (+100)|
|CIN||6 (-130)||6 (+110)|
|CLE||9 (-130)||9 (+110)|
|DAL||9 (+100)||9 (-120)|
|DEN||7 (-110)||7 (-110)|
|DET||6.5 (-130)||6.5 (+110)|
|GB||9 (-110)||9 (-110)|
|HOU||8.5 (+110)||8.5 (-130)|
|IND||9.5 (-150)||9.5 (+130)|
|JAC||8 (+100)||8 (-120)|
|KC||10.5 (+100)||10.5 (-120)|
|LAC||9.5 (-140)||9.5 (+120)|
|LAR||10.5 (+110)||10.5 (-130)|
|MIA||5 (+110)||5 (-130)|
|MIN||9 (+100)||9 (-120)|
|NE||11 (-140)||11 (+120)|
|NO||10.5 (-110)||10.5 (-110)|
|NYG||6 (+100)||6 (-120)|
|NYJ||7.5 (-110)||7.5 (-110)|
|OAK||6 (-110)||6 (-110)|
|PHI||9.5 (-150)||9.5 (+130)|
|PIT||9 (-110)||9 (-110)|
|SF||8 (-120)||8 (+100)|
|SEA||8.5 (-120)||8.5 (+100)|
|TB||6.5 (+100)||6.5 (-120)|
|TEN||8 (+100)||8 (-120)|
|WAS||6.5 (+110)||6.5 (-130)|
Brinson: Chargers Over 9.5 (-140)
This is heavily priced, but I would rather pay the juice than wait until it moves up to 10 games, which I think it absolutely will once we get any sort of news about Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs are the current favorites to win the division, which is absolutely understandable. But I think, like last year, it should be reversed. This is not just about the Chiefs, of course. It's also about Tom Telesco building out one of the most complete rosters in the entire NFL, culminating with an excellent 2019 NFL Draft class, one that is flying under the radar.
Philip Rivers just keeps on grinding out great seasons as he builds a Hall of Fame resume. Los Angeles is loaded at the skill positions with Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Hunter Henry. There's enough returning on the offensive line -- Russell Okung, Mike Pouncey, Dan Feeney, Michael Schofield -- to feel confident about Rivers protection, especially with the upside depth they have in Forrest Lamp (2017 second-round pick) and Trey Pipkins (2019 third-rounder).
The defensive line -- Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, Brandon Mebane, Justin Jones and new first-round pick Jerry Tillery -- is stacked. Denzel Perryman fronts a questionable group of linebackers; they need health (ahem, Thomas Davis) at this position to avoid the "all DB defense" the Patriots gashed in the playoffs. Pairing Nassir Adderley with Derwin James and having the triple-safety option with Adrian Phillips gives Gus Bradley a lot to play with.
Depth is a concern but this is a stacked roster. The schedule is tough but manageable: Colts (home), Lions (away), Texans (home) and Dolphins (away) make up the typical Chargers September swoon. Avoiding that slow start might be imperative as Denver, Pittsburgh, at Tennessee and at Chicago wait in the next quadrant. Packers (home), Raiders (road) and Chiefs (home) lead into the Week 12 bye. I see 7-4 conservatively at that point, meaning the Chargers would need three wins among Denver (road), Jacksonville (road), Minnesota (home), Oakland (home) and Kansas City (road).
Nothing's free in the NFL and 10 wins is a lot, but that is certainly doable for one of the best rosters in football.
White: Ravens Under 8.5 (-120)
This is setting up to be a tough year for the Ravens. They entered the draft with the worst receiver group in the league, and though I liked taking Marquise Brown and love Miles Boykin, the former is getting over a serious foot injury and the latter doesn't figure to make a huge Year 1 impact. Both make the offense better, but neither give this offense the go-to receiving option it desperately needs out of the gate.
A run-centric offense can work in today's NFL, but the Ravens benefited from playing a slew of terrible rush defenses after Lamar Jackson took over last year, and they don't have the defense in place they've had in the past with C.J. Mosley and Terrell Suggs leaving. Earl Thomas is a nice addition, but I worry about how this defense generates pass rush and I don't know how much I trust the linebacker corps.
Jackson is going to have to win games with his arm at times this season, and he doesn't have the best stable of weapons to make it easy. Even with some easy teams on the schedule (Baltimore opens at Miami and home against Arizona), I think this is a .500 team at best.
Breech: Seahawks Over 8.5 (-120)
The Seahawks only made one truly big move this offseason, and that move is why I'm taking the over here: They re-signed Russell Wilson. In the seven years that Wilson has been on the team, the Seahawks have never had a losing record. As a matter of fact, since Wilson became the starter during his rookie year in 2012, the Seahawks have averaged 10.7 wins per season and there's only been one year where they didn't hit double digit wins (9-7 in 2017).
No matter what happens to the rest of the roster, Wilson will will this team to at least nine wins.
Wagner-McGough: Seahawks Over 8.5 (-120)
Last year seemed like the perfect time for the Seahawks to take another step back after a 9-7 season and mass exodus of longtime contributors on the defensive side of the ball. Instead, the Seahawks won 10 games to journey back to the postseason -- and they did that with a very flawed offensive approach that depended way too much on the running game. The Seahawks might've lost Frank Clark and Earl Thomas, and they might be without Doug Baldwin, but I just don't see them becoming an eight-win team.
They still have Russell Wilson. And since Wilson took over as the starting quarterback in 2012, the Seahawks haven't won fewer than nine games in a single season. In the draft, the Seahawks were able to replace their outgoing players by selecting a defensive end, safety, and receiver with their top three picks. Obviously, those players will need a bit of an adjustment period, but I wouldn't be surprised if Pete Carroll is able to get the most out of those young players almost immediately.
In the end, it comes down to Russell Wilson. I don't think many other teams with a top-five(ish) quarterback would be projected to win only eight games. Wilson has proven to be good enough to carry the Seahawks over the finish line, and it's not like his supporting cast is completely lacking. Bobby Wagner is still around to anchor the defense. And it wouldn't be surprising if other young players around him take another step forward in their development.
Dubin: Lions Under 6.5 (+110)
Detroit won six games last season and actually had the point differential of a seven-win team. Based on that, you'd likely expect the Lions to improve in 2019. But aside from adding Trey Flowers, I'm not sure I see how they got meaningfully better.
The Lions' problems last season were mostly on the defensive side of the ball. Flowers is a good pass rusher, but he is not a pass rush unto himself. They're still going to have trouble getting to the quarterback. And they did not address their issues at either linebacker or in the secondary in an adequate way. Reaching for Jahlani Tavai in the second round doesn't solve their issues covering the middle of the field, and Justin Coleman doesn't solve their problems across from Darius Slay.
Add in the fact that the Packers should almost surely be better this season and that it would be difficult for the Vikings to underperform as much as they did last year, and I just see the Lions struggling to replicate even last season's win total.
Wilson: Bills Over 6.5 (-160)
The Bills have won at least seven games in four of the last five seasons and went to the playoffs in 2017 for the first time since 1999. Last year they struggled to six wins because: 1. Sean McDermott started the season with Nathan Peterman under center, and 2. when Josh Allen replaced him he struggled with rookie growing pains and not much help around him.
But the Bills were busy this offseason, adding depth in free agency (wide receivers John Brown and Cole Beasley; running backs Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon) and finding difference-makers in the draft, starting with No. 9 pick Ed Oliver, who will replace retired Kyle Williams. Buffalo found a top-20 talent in Round 2 with right tackle Cody Ford, and got Allen two more playmakers a round later with running back Devin Singletary and tight end Dawson Knox.
No other team in the division did more to improve their roster and narrow the gap with the Patriots. It still probably won't be enough to challenge for the AFC East crown, but it will certainly make the Bills favorites to win more than they'll lose in 2019.
Steimle: Giants Under 6 (-120)
First, let me start off by saying I am the most negative Giants fan on the planet and those who know me and follow me on Twitter will back me up on this statement, so take this however you want to.
It's going to be another tough season for Big Blue faithful.
Right tackle was not addressed through free agency or the draft (free agent Mike Remmers is still a possibility if his physical comes back clean). The offense played well down the stretch last season, and that was without Odell Beckham, who is now with the Browns after an offseason trade. However, Eli Manning is another year older and probably should have been replaced years ago. Saquon Barkley is a star, but has no reliable backup. The offense suffers when he's not on the field. The receiving corps is made up of possession guys. When your tight end is your biggest deep threat, you have issues.
The Giants did address the secondary through the draft, but the lack of a pass rush will be a major issue for young corners as they get acclimated to the speed and talent of NFL receivers. Kentucky linebacker Josh Allen was there for the taking in the draft, but we know how that ended up.
The Giants are a five-win team at best.
Anderson: Packers Over 9 (-110)
This is a big number for a team that won six games a year ago, and if you throw in a rookie head coach and a schedule that -- in the first nine weeks alone -- includes the Bears, Vikings, Eagles, Cowboys, Chiefs and Chargers, this pick could look like a loser before Thanksgiving.
But there are two reasons why I still have a lot of faith in the Packers hitting double-digit wins. First, Aaron Rodgers is going to be hell-bent on proving it was Mike McCarthy who was the problem. Rodgers had some serious issues with McCarthy, and he'll be more than a little motivated to make sure the offense takes off after McCarthy's departure. Will Matt LaFleur be a good head coach? No idea, but for this season it won't matter. Rodgers is going to be torching everyone.
Second, even if the Packers aren't an offensive force every week, look at that defense. Green Bay added Za'Darius Smith, Preston Smith and Adrian Amos before the draft, then used its two first-round picks on Rashan Gary and Darnell Savage. Mike Pettine should have his defense ready to take a big step up.
Ultimately, going over the number will depend on Rodgers being healthy, but you could say something similar about every team. Combine a healthy, motivated Rodgers with an improved defense, and 10 wins seems like the floor.
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