Ivan Rabb's daring decision to go back to Cal might actually, quietly, be paying off
If Cal can't make the NCAA Tournament, was Ivan Rabb's choice a bust?
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5 min read
Hey, remember Ivan Rabb? That name ring a bell?
This young dude was last year's most surprising NBA Draft defection. He bypassed being a likely top-15 (top-10?) pick, opting instead to return to the Bay Area and live that Berkeley college life (hard to fault him there).
You don't see these types of decisions too often, though, and it's even more rare (Doug McDermott and Kris Dunn being recent exceptions) when a player leaves money on the table to better himself, gambles on his draft stock in the process and then winds up going even higher in the draft. The mindset for most players, their families and hungry potential agents is: Take the money when your stock is at its safest peak. Capitalize off your potential.
Rabb is wired a little differently from most prospects. He focused on his faults instead of immediately bankrolling off his fortes. While his teammate, Jaylen Brown, rightfully bolted and became a top-three pick, Rabb sought to expand his game, strengthen his body and improve his life under the tutelage of coach Cuonzo Martin and his staff. In doing so, Rabb also opted out of a fairly weak 2016 draft class. Now he's performing in the same draft-prospect orbit of the strongest freshman class in maybe a decade. Because of this, it's not definitive that Rabb made the right decision in terms of short-term economics. If he leaves after this season, there's a considerable chance he'll be drafted lower than where he would have gone in 2016.
Rabb was a preseason first-team All-America choice in October. If the season ended today, he wouldn't sniff the first or second team, and he would have a hard time making the third team. His numbers (15.4 points, 10.8 rebounds), are good, but the path has been bumpy. Does this mean he has been a letdown, that his choice to come back was the wrong one? No.
Because the season doesn't end today. Rabb has anywhere from 16-20 games to bolster his stock and keep Cal relevant and dancing on the margins of the NCAA Tournament picture. He has the responsibility of being, arguably, the most valuable player in the Pac-12. Bears freshman Charlie Moore has been a revelation (15.2 ppg) and Jabari Bird is rounding out a good college career (14.1 ppg, 5.3 rpg), but few teams in the country rely on a player the way Cal does, and it's all the more emphasized when you factor in that Rabb is a "flex" power forward, if you will.
One of the most overlooked developments of the past two weeks is what Rabb has done to resuscitate his -- and Cal's -- season. The Bears started 7-1 against a non-conference schedule that now ranks a mediocre 253rd. Rabb sat the first two games of the season (toe problems), then averaged 19.8 points and 10.2 rebounds in his first five games. The five games after that saw a big dip, however: 9.4 points, 8.2 rebounds and four fouls per game, including two foul-outs. The limber 6-foot-11 Rabb also shot a mere 43 percent from the field in that second span.
By Christmas, Rabb's decision to come back was looking regrettable. Cal blandly landed on a 9-3 record, lacked even one win over a projected NCAA Tournament team and was on the fringes of being in the top half of its conference.
Then Pac-12 play began and Rabb was revived.
Here's his fabulous line in league play through four games: 17.5 points, 14.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.5 blocks and 56-percent shooting. He won Pac-12 Player of the Week last week -- the first of his career -- after pushing Cal to a critical 74-73 road win against 15-2/ranked Southern California. Rabb's two free throws with five seconds remaining, and his blocked shot on Jordan McLaughlin's winning attempt, decided the game.
Some proof of how diverse Rabb's game is, with video of the winning block (which came when he had four fouls), can be seen at the 3:35 mark.
His clutch play at USC gave the program its first win on the road against a ranked team in almost four years. This came on the heels of a career-best 20-rebound effort against one of the five best teams in America, UCLA. The last time a Cal player had a 20-board game was more than a decade ago, when Leon Powe (there's a blast from the past) did it. Rabb's 17-and-20 effort in the UCLA loss was also the first 20-rebound game by any Pac-12 player this season.
But, in terms of draft stock (which unfortunately now seems to take up more conversation space during the season, rather than after it) the jury's still out on if Rabb made the right call. Recent mock drafts have him in the mid-to-late teens, which suggests a slight dip. I'm not someone who gets caught up in the futures of other players -- it's their life, not mine -- but the fact is that these kinds of decisions and story lines are part of the plot of college hoops every season.
NBA general managers and scouts are intrigued by Rabb not only because he decided to stay, but also because how he seems to have a mature approach to his development. Cal is benefiting, and I don't take that lightly. Without him this season, the Bears are not a top-70 team. Rabb is one of three players in the Pac-12 averaging a double-double (with Arizona State's Obinna Oleka and Washington State's Josh Hawkinson) and it has been fun to see him thrive in league play.
His foul problem is still lingering heavily (he has had four fouls in every Pac-12 game), though, and his ORtg is down to 108.8 from the 120.5 he finished at last season. The country doesn't get to see enough of Rabb, but few players will so singularly determine the fate of their teams like he can, and will. Just because he plays on the West Coast doesn't mean he's not as interesting or important as guys at Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina, Kansas and Villanova. We just don't see Rabb as much.
If you follow college basketball closely (and if you're reading an article on Rabb, that's a likelihood) chances are good you'll hear more about Cal's upswing and Rabb's impressive play over the next week. The Golden Bears' next two games come at home against the sub-par Washington schools on Thursday and Saturday. Wins there will get Cal to 13-5 and thinking more optimistically about getting back to the tournament.
If a repeat Big Dance appearance happens (Cal was a 4 seed last season), Rabb will almost certainly have done himself right while boosting the program for the second straight season. But because we don't have answers to either of those issues yet, it makes Rabb and Cal one of the more interesting second-half West Coast plot lines in college hoops.
