default-cbs-image

John Calipari has spent seven seasons as Kentucky's head coach. He's finished first in the SEC four years -- and never lower than tied for second -- in the process of making the Final Four more times (four) than he's missed it (three.)

That's consistent greatness.

And there's no reason to expect it to change this season.

Kentucky is, once again, loaded thanks to a recruiting class featuring five five-star recruits -- most notably point guard De'Aaron Fox, combo guard Malik Monk and power forward Bam Adebayo. According to DraftExpress, UK has more projected picks in the 2017 NBA Draft than the rest of the SEC combined, meaning there's an undeniable talent gap between the Wildcats and everybody else in the league. So, yeah, Florida might be good. And Georgia could be good. And Arkansas and Texas A&M have the pieces to maybe be good and make the NCAA Tournament. But nobody in the SEC is built for excellence like Kentucky. My guess is that such will be obvious come January and, by March, the gap will be even wider. UK should win the SEC by multiple games.

(Below you'll find everything you need to know about the SEC -- including our predictions for conference Player of the Year, Freshman of the Year and Coach of the Year, all-conference teams, as well as our predicted order of finish and a scouting report including strengths and weaknesses, X-factors and projected regular-season win totals for each team.)

110416malikmonk.jpg
Freshman Malik Monk is one of Kentucky's latest NBA-ready prospects . USATSI

Player of the Year

Malik Monk, Kentucky

Arkansas' Moses Kingsley is the official SEC Preseason Player of the Year, which is fine. But if Kentucky runs away with the league title -- FWIW: KenPom projects UK to win the SEC by three games -- a Wildcat will probably receive the postseason Player of the Year award. The only question is which one. And, frankly, there's no simple answer. It could easily be Bam Adebayo or De'Aaron Fox. But we went with Monk -- the 6-3 guard who is an amazing athlete and above-average shooter. He'll probably lead UK in scoring. He'll definitely lead UK in highlights.

Freshman of the Year

Malik Monk, Kentucky

Monk is a freshman and our pick for SEC Player of the Year. So, obviously, he's also the pick for Freshman of the Year. The Arkansas native won the 3-point shooting contest, and finished second in the dunk contest, at the 2016 McDonald's All-American Game. So he's effective from beyond the arc and explosive around the rim. Monk is a consensus five-star recruit who picked Kentucky despite a long and intense pursuit by Arkansas, the home-state school that doubles as his brother's alma mater.

Coach of the Year

John Calipari, Kentucky

I've never understood why coaches are penalized in Coach of the Year voting for recruiting too well because, let's be honest, recruiting is a huge part of the job. To punish a coach for that is nonsensical. So, yeah, Kentucky will likely win the SEC because it has the best players, by far. Nobody could intelligently argue otherwise. But Calipari recruited those players. And he should be rewarded accordingly if he uses them to win a third straight league title.

Preseason All-SEC team

G: De'Aaron Fox | Kentucky | Freshman

G: J.J. Frazier | Georgia | Senior

G: Malik Monk | Kentucky | Freshman

F: Moses Kingsley | Arkansas | Senior

F: Bam Adebayo | Kentucky | Freshman

Predicted order of finish



Gary
Parrish


Matt
Norlander


Chip
Patterson


Jerry
Palm
110416kentucky.jpg
Kentucky appears ready to win another SEC title. USATSI

Scouting reports

(Teams listed in consensus predicted order of finish)

1. Kentucky Wildcats


Strength: More NBA talent in Lexington

The strongest part of Kentucky's team is the same thing it always is -- i.e., elite talent and lots of it. The Wildcats, thanks to John Calipari's recruiting, have future NBA players at every position, probably. That backcourt of De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk is going to be super fun and exciting. And Bam Adebayo should be better than any forward UK used last season.

Weakness: The freshman question

John Calipari's best Kentucky teams have typically been ones that were led by freshmen but also prominently featured sophomores, juniors or seniors. For instance, the great 2009-10 team had junior Patrick Patterson and sophomore Darius Miller among its top five scorers. The team that won the 2012 national championship had sophomore Doron Lamb, sophomore Terrence Jones and senior Darius Miller among its top six scorers. The team that went 38-1 in 2014-15 had sophomore Aaron Harrison, sophomore Andrew Harrison and junior Willie Cauley-Stein. So the question is simple: is this Kentucky team going to rely too much on first-year players to be great from November through April? Perhaps not. But if you're looking for a possible issue, that might be it.

X-Factor: Finding the shooters

The concern with this roster is that it might lack enough quality shooters, which is why Derek Willis could play a huge role. The 6-9 forward shot 44.2 percent from beyond the arc last season. He could be the key to spacing the floor and making teams guard honestly.

Projected regular-season win total: 26

Kentucky has non-league games with Michigan State, UCLA, North Carolina, Louisville and Kansas. But only one of those -- the December game at Louisville -- is a true road game. For the sake of the conversation, I'll assume the Wildcats go 11-2 in the non-league portion of their schedule and 15-3 in the SEC. That would put them at 26 wins heading into the SEC Tournament and in a terrific position to earn a No. 1 seed to the NCAA Tournament.

2. Florida Gators


Strength: Roster keeps getting better

The Gators aren't back to where they were in their best years under Billy Donovan, but they do have five players who have averaged 9.0 points or better at the Division I level, and that's not nothing. The biggest scorer on the team might be Canyon Barry. He's a graduate transfer from Charleston who averaged 19.7 points for Earl Grant's Cougars last season.

Weakness: Still looking for shooters

Florida shot 31.9 percent from 3-point range and 64.8 percent from the free throw line last season, which ranked 294th and 330th nationally. So what's Florida's weakness? Shooting, clearly. KeVaughn Allen needs to headline the list of players determined to fix those averages, as the 6-2 sophomore is a quality shooter. But even he only made 31.5 percent of the 4.5 3-pointers he launched last season.

X-Factor: John Egbunu/Devin Robinson

John Egbunu and Devin Robinson are both proven commodities at the Division I level. But each had to recover from offseason surgery, meaning they missed valuable get-better time. How they respond will be crucial to determining whether Florida returns to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014.

Projected regular-season win total: 22

A challenging non-league schedule featuring games at Oklahoma and Florida State, a neutral-site game against Duke, and possible neutral-site games against Gonzaga and Miami or Iowa State might create four or five non-league losses for the Gators. But I think they'll prove to be the second-best team in the SEC, finish with 22 regular-season victories and march right into the NCAA Tournament.

3. Texas A&M Aggies


Strength: Height matters

The Aggies lost four starters, which is never ideal. But they're still talented -- and big. Six of Texas A&M's top seven players, by coach Billy Kennedy's estimation, are 6-8 or taller. So the Aggies will play some zone this season and likely be able to create problems for opponents with their size and athleticism.

Weakness: Point guard

Texas A&M's initial plan to replace starting point guard Anthony Collins was to maybe insert freshman J.J. Caldwell, a top-75 national recruit. But the NCAA ruled Caldwell ineligible in the preseason. So now the Aggies will rely on somebody else and lack depth at the most important position on the floor.

X-Factor: JC Hampton

JC Hampton is a graduate transfer who averaged 15.9 points last season at Lipscomb. It's hard to say if the 6-1 guard can replicate that kind of production at the high-major level. But the odds of Texas A&M returning to the NCAA Tournament will increase drastically if he can.

Projected regular-season win total: 21

The Aggies won 24 games last regular season thanks to a six-game winning streak to close the SEC portion of their schedule. In plain words, I'll be surprised if they're that good again. Remember, the Aggies only played Kentucky once last regular season; and they'll get UK twice this regular season. That matters. So something like 21 regular-season victories appears more realistic. But, yes, I still think Texas A&M will be back in the NCAA Tournament.

4. Georgia Bulldogs


Strength: Dawgs can defend

The Bulldogs have ranked among the nation's top 50 in defensive efficiency each of the past two seasons, and that shouldn't change considering Georgia only lost Kenny Gaines and Charles Mann from last season's 20-win team. Yante Maten averaged 1.8 blocks as a sophomore, which helped Georgia rank seventh nationally in block percentage. And the Bulldogs are especially good at guarding inside of the arc, where they held opponents to just 42.8-percent shooting during the 2015-16 season.

Weakness: Too many turnovers

One of Georgia's biggest flaws last season was that the Bulldogs turned the ball over too often without creating enough turnovers to balance things out. The proof is in the numbers. Georgia turned the ball over on 19.2 percent of its possessions, which ranked 250th nationally, but only created turnovers on 15.6 percent of its opponents' possessions, which ranked 316th nationally. Needless to say, it's hard to be a good team playing that way. So that's something Mark Fox must fix in order for the Bulldogs to make the NCAA Tournament.

X-Factor: Derek Ogbeide

Derek Ogbeide started 15 times last season but only averaged 15.0 minutes per game. Still, he showed some really good signs. The 6-8 forward grabbed 10 rebounds in 16 minutes against Ole Miss and 13 rebounds in 22 minutes against Mississippi State. If he can have those kinds of outings more regularly, Mark Fox's job will be much easier.

Projected regular-season win total: 21

The Bulldogs have non-league games at Clemson and Oakland, two at home with Texas and Marquette, and a possible game with Kansas in Kansas City. I'll predict that Georgia will go 10-3 in the non-league, one way or another, and then finish 11-7 in the SEC. That'll put them at 21-10 entering the SEC Tournament, which should be enough to give Georgia a great shot at an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

5. Arkansas Razorbacks


Strength: Powerful pair

There aren't many teams who return two players who averaged more than 15.5 points per game last season, but Arkansas does. One is Dusty Hannah, a 6-3 senior who averaged a team-best 16.5 points while shooting 43.3 percent from 3-point range. The other is Moses Kingsley, a 6-10 forward who averaged 15.9 points and 9.3 rebounds.

Weakness: Playing on the road

No Power 5 school consistently has a bigger discrepancy between how they play at home and on the road than Arkansas. The Razorbacks were 13-4 at Bud Walton Arena last season but just 3-12 away from it. That's how they finished 16-16. It's a frustrating trend that needs to change.

X-Factor: Jaylen Barford

Jaylen Barford was widely considered to be the top JUCO prospect in the country last season. He's now enrolled at Arkansas. And the Hogs need him to be really good so that they can be good as a team. The 6-3 guard averaged 26.2 points as a sophomore at Motlow State. If he can get half of that in his first year of Division-I basketball, Arkansas should be satisfied.

Projected regular-season win total: 22

Arkansas could easily go 11-2 (or even 12-1) in the non-league portion of its schedule considering the only ranked opponent Mike Anderson's team will face is Texas. Combine that with what should, I think, be a top-five finish in the SEC, and I'll project 22 regular-season victories for the Razorbacks and a second trip in a three-year span to the NCAA Tournament.

6. Vanderbilt Commodores


Strength: Long-range shooting

The Commodores return four players who made more than 25 3-pointers last season, and two of those players (Matthew Fisher-Davis, Jeff Roberson) shot better than 43.4 percent from beyond the arc, which is great. As a team, Vandy shot 38.2 percent from beyond the arc in its final year under Kevin Stallings. That ranked 28th nationally. And there's no reason to think that number will go anywhere but up considering most of the quality shooters are back.

Weakness: Two underclassmen gone to the NBA

Vanderbilt lost two underclassmen to the NBA Draft -- Wade Baldwin and Damian Jones. That's a tough thing to overcome for any program, but the Commodores can remain relevant as long as Riley LaChance makes a smooth transition to what should be the team's primary ball handler. If he struggles, though, Vandy likely will, too.

X-Factor: Luke Kornet

Luke Kornet is still a legitimate NBA prospect, but his shooting percentage and 3-point percentage each dropped drastically from his sophomore year to his junior year. The 7-1 forward only shot 40.3 percent from the field and 28.0 percent from 3-point range last season. He needs to be much better as a senior to help Vanderbilt finish in the top half of the SEC.

Projected regular-season win total: 20

Vanderbilt is projected to finish sixth in the SEC, which typically equates to about 10 league wins. I'll throw 10 non-league wins on top of that -- though getting there won't be easy considering the Commodores have guaranteed games with Dayton, Iowa State and Butler, and a possible game with Arizona -- and predict that Vanderbilt enters the SEC Tournament with 20 victories. That would actually be one more than the Commodores finished with last regular season. So perhaps an NCAA Tournament appearance isn't out of the question.

110416averyjohnson.jpg
Alabama could be ready to turn the corner under coach Avery Johnson. USATSI

7. Alabama Crimson Tide


Strength: Tide transfers rolling in

Avery Johnson has done a nice job in the transfer market, which is why the Crimson Tide might actually be better this season despite the loss of Retin Obasohan and Arthur Edwards. Keep an eye on graduate transfer Corbin Collins. He began his career at LSU, then played two seasons at Morehead State, where he averaged 11.0 points and shot 42.5 percent from 3-point range last season. He's one of multiple transfers who should make an immediate impact at Alabama.

Weakness: Gotta have guards

Alabama lost its three best guards -- Retin Obasihan, Arthur Edwards and Justin Coleman -- and thus does not have a single returning guard who appeared in more than seven contests and averaged more than 1.5 points per game last season. That's not ideal. So somebody is going to have to emerge. Perhaps Corbin Collins can be one of those somebodies. He certainly needs to be.

X-Factor: Nick King

Nick King was a top-50 recruit coming out of high school who signed with Memphis but never flourished, for one reason or another, under coach Josh Pastner. The 6-7 forward transferred after the 2014-15 season and is now eligible at Alabama. If his play matches his recruiting ranking, he should be a solid piece in coach Avery Johnson's rotation.

Projected regular-season win total: 19

Alabama has an opportunity, at home early, to get a significant non-league win over Dayton that would benefit the Crimson Tide come Selection Sunday. They also have non-league road games at Texas and Oregon, which will obviously be tough. Bottom line, this team with this schedule looks like it'll finish 19-11 in the regular season but have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament with an additional win or two in the SEC Tournament.

8. South Carolina Gamecocks


Strength: Solid core

Frank Martin's team returns two guards (Sindarius Thornwell, Duane Notice) who each averaged double-digits in points last season, and South Carolina has a former McDonald's All-American (PJ Dozier) on the wing. Theoretically, that's a nice core -- especially if Dozier plays to his reputation.

Weakness: Frontcourt holes to fill

The Gamecocks lost their starting small forward (Michael Carrera), power forward (Mindaugas Kacinas) and center (Laimonas Chatkevicius) to graduation. That trio combined to average 34.8 points and 17.6 rebounds last season. So there are some massive holes to fill in South Carolina's frontcourt.

X-Factor: PJ Dozier

PJ Dozier is a former five-star recruit who was expected to be the face of South Carolina's program. And he still might become that. But his freshman year wasn't great. The 6-6 guard only averaged 6.7 points and 3.0 rebounds in 19.0 minutes per game last season. He needs to break through as a sophomore or else South Carolina will have a tough time finishing in the top half of the SEC.

Projected regular-season win total: 20

The Gamecocks won 24 times last regular season. I can't see them hitting that number again, if only because their non-league schedule is tougher thanks to games with Syracuse and Michigan. Something like 20 regular-season victories is more likely. But if the Gamecocks win the right ones, and don't lose too many bad ones, they'll have a shot to add to their resume in the SEC Tournament and snap the SEC's longest drought by returning to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2004.

9. Ole Miss Rebels


Strength: Talented transfers

Andy Kennedy has used the transfer market to provide his program with some interesting options in the backcourt -- namely Cullen Neal and Deandre Burnett. Neal is a 6-5 point guard who averaged 12.3 points and 3.7 assists last season at New Mexico. As a graduate transfer, he's eligible this season. Burnett is a 6-2 guard who averaged 7.0 points in just 17.4 minutes per game two seasons ago at Miami. He missed last season per normal NCAA transfer rules but will compete this season and, presumably, play and score a lot.

Weakness: Defensive improvement needed

Ole Miss has ranked outside of the top 100 in defensive efficiency in each of the past three seasons. That's an obvious weakness and usually something that keeps teams from earning at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament. In fact, no school with a sub-100 defensive efficiency rating earned an at-large bid to the 2016 NCAA Tournament. So the Rebels will need to guard better to give themselves the best possible chance to dance in March.

X-Factor: Home sweet home

This will be the Rebels' first full season at The Pavilion, a beautiful on-campus arena that opened last January. It's not an exaggeration to suggest the building could provide the Rebels with a homecourt advantage they never enjoyed at Tad Smith Coliseum. If fans respond to this team and show up, winning the necessary home games to build a good at-large resume will be a little simpler that it otherwise would be.

Projected regular-season win total: 19

The Rebels will only play one true road game in the non-league portion of their schedule -- a December game at Virginia Tech -- which suggests they could do well in those 13 games. Something like 10-3 seems reasonable. Combine that with a 9-9 SEC record, and I'll project 19 victories for Ole Miss heading into the SEC Tournament.

10. Auburn Tigers


Strength: High hopes for Mustapha Heron

Bruce Pearl is still a year away from having a roster filled with the type of talented prospects who can compete near the top of the SEC. But this year's addition of Mustapha Heron should provide a glimpse of what's to come. The 6-5 wing is the first consensus five-star prospect in Auburn history. He should be terrific, right from the start.

Weakness: Who's going to grab the boards?

The Tigers ranked 292nd in defensive rebounding and 236th in offensive rebounding last season. And the top two rebounders on that team -- Cinmeon Bowers and Tyler Harris -- are no longer in the program. So that's probably not an encouraging development.

X-Factor: T.J. Dunans

JUCO transfer T.J. Dunans averaged 11.6 points, 3.4 assists and 2.5 rebounds in the 16 games he played for Auburn before suffering a season-ending knee injury last December. So he's shown he's capable of contributing at the high-major level. Now he has to show he's capable of returning from that knee injury and being even better than he was a year ago.

Projected regular-season win total: 16

Auburn's non-league schedule features games at Connecticut and UAB to go with neutral-site games against Texas Tech, Oklahoma and another possible one against Purdue. That's not simple for a program still building. Thus, 16 regular-season victories seems like a reasonable place to set the bar. Anything more would qualify as overachieving.

11. Mississippi State Bulldogs


Strength: Process continues

Ben Howland's Bulldogs are still at least a year from competing for a bid to the NCAA Tournament, but he has plenty of young and talented pieces in place thanks to back-to-back top-25 recruiting classes. Mississippi State enrolled five top-100 prospects from the Class of 2016 -- among them Schnider Herard and Mario Kegler. They should show some promising flashes this season, then be ready to break through a year from now.

Weakness: Too much youth

It's just so difficult to win at the Power 5 level with extremely young rosters unless the roster is filled with obvious future lottery picks. And Mississippi State's isn't. Thus Mississippi State's inexperience will be hard to overcome, especially when league play begins.

X-Factor: Abdul Ado's eligibility issue

Mississippi State desperately needs size around the rim, which is an issue Abdul Ado was recruited to address. But the NCAA has yet to clear the 6-11, 235-pound center to compete as a freshman, and it's possible he'll miss the entire season. If so, that's one more issue that'll require Ben Howland, and fans of his program, to remain patient with this rebuild.

Projected regular-season win total: 18

The Bulldogs should be better, just not good enough to make the NCAA Tournament. Looking at the schedule, 18 regular-season wins seems possible in Ben Howland's second year in Starkville. But it'll likely be his third season before the real breakthrough happens.

12. LSU Tigers


Strength: Antonio Blakeney is back

Ben Simmons is gone and in the NBA after what was, all things considered, one disappointing year of college basketball. But the Tigers still have a McDonald's All-American in the form of Antonio Blakeney, and he played well down the stretch in his freshman year. The 6-4 guard averaged 19.9 points in LSU's final seven games last season. If that kind of productivity carries over, Blakeney could compete for All-SEC honors.

Weakness: Hitting from long range

LSU shot just 32.7 percent from 3-point range last season, which ranked 255th nationally. And the best 3-pointer shooter in the program, Keith Hornsby, is no longer in the program. So the Tigers will likely struggle again to score from beyond the arc.

X-Factor: Craig Victor

Craig Victor is a former top-40 national recruit who began his career at Arizona before transferring to LSU after one year. He averaged 11.5 points and 5.6 rebounds last season. But the 6-9 forward struggled with foul trouble and thus missed large portions of games; he fouled out eight times. Victor needs to fix that, plain and simple. Because LSU won't be able to consistently win unless Victor is consistently on the court.

Projected regular-season win total: 14

LSU's participation in the Battle 4 Atlantis will start with a game against Wichita State and could, theoretically, also produce matchups with Louisville and either Michigan State, Baylor or VCU. So the Tigers probably won't do better than 1-2 in the Bahamas, and the rest of the season doesn't project much better. LSU was picked 12th in the SEC's preseason media poll. That usually equates to six league wins. So unless the Tigers overachieve, they'll likely finish the regular season with no more than 14 victories.

13. Tennessee Volunteers


Strength: Robert Hubbs is getting better

Even though the Vols didn't finish above .500 in either of the past two seasons, they did have a former McDonald's All-American on the roster both times. His name is Robert Hubbs III. And he's UT's leading returning scorer after averaging 10.6 points and 3.9 rebounds last season. It would be disingenuous to suggest Hubbs' career has gone as planned. But he was relevant as a junior and has the ability to make his senior year his best year in the SEC.

Weakness: Still short on talent

Tennessee has a major talent problem relative to the best years of the Bruce Pearl era, and Rick Barnes didn't do much to solve it via the Class of 2016. Not a single prospect ranked in the top 140, according to 247Sports, signed with UT. So the Tennessee roster looks more like a roster that will finish in the bottom quarter of the SEC standings than one equipped to land in the top half.

X-Factor: Admiral Schofield

Admiral Schofield averaged 7.6 points in 18.7 minutes per game last season. But the 6-5 forward got 15 points against Arkansas in late February, reached double-figures in each of Tennessee's final six games, and appears to be among the players on the roster best suited to account for some of the points Kevin Punter and Armani Moore are no longer around to score.

Projected regular-season win total: 13

The bad news for Tennessee fans is that Rick Barnes' second year in Knoxville might not even be as good as his first, and his first wasn't good at all. The Vols won 13 games last regular season. Unless they overachieve relative to preseason expectations, they'll likely enter the SEC Tournament with the same number, perhaps fewer.

14. Missouri Tigers


Strength: The return of Kevin Puryear

The Tigers under Kim Anderson haven't been good offensively, defensively or in general. So there's not much to brag about it. But Kevin Puryear was a pleasant surprise last season. He was the least-heralded prospect Missouri enrolled from the Class of 2015, a 6-7 forward ranked 347th nationally, yet he averaged a team-high 11.5 points and 4.6 rebounds while earning All-Freshman SEC honors.

Weakness: Talent has transferred out

Missouri's program has lost transfer after transfer since the school hired Kim Anderson in April 2014, and now the Tigers are young and not all that talented. That's a terrible combination in a Power 5 league. It's why Missouri is projected to finish last in the SEC.

X-Factor: Jordan Barnett

Jordan Barnett is a former four-star recruit who enrolled at Texas out of high school but transferred to Missouri after one year. He sat out last season per normal NCAA transfer rules. But the 6-7 forward is eligible now. And he's one of Mizzou's most naturally gifted players. It would benefit the Tigers, from a talent perspective, if Barnett becomes a big part of the rotation.

Projected regular-season win total: 11

Missouri won nine games two seasons ago and 10 last season. This season doesn't project to be much better. Perhaps the Tigers can improve again and get to 11 or 12 regular-season victories. But it's hard to imagine a scenario where they win enough to keep folks from wondering if the school should give Kim Anderson a fourth year at his alma mater.