Rams and Browns, beware: History says drafting QBs early is a crapshoot
The Rams and Browns are desperately in search of their next franchise quarterbacks, but they're still tough to come by, even when you have the first two picks in the draft.
By
Ryan Wilson
•
6 min read
Back in February, Rams coach Jeff Fisher said Case Keenum would return as the starting quarterback. A month later, general manager Les Snead said pretty much the same thing.
It was hard to take them seriously, because: 1) we're talking about Case Keenum, 2) last offseason Fisher declared that Sam Bradford would be the starter (Bradford was traded to Philly before the season), and more importantly, 3) this week, Fisher and Snead traded the farm to the Titans to move up from No. 15 to No. 1 in this month's draft.
And while the Rams reportedly haven't settled on who they'll take with the pick, it will undoubtedly be a quarterback. Partly because teams don't give up two first-rounders, two second-rounders and two third-rounders without having some idea why they're doing with it. But mostly because teams without a franchise quarterback rarely make the playoffs, and when they do don't get out of the first round.
Our first reaction after hearing about the trade? "Man, the Rams got fleeced."
But here's the deal: Fisher and Snead haven't exactly set the world on fire. Since 2012, the Rams are 27-36-1, haven't made the playoffs, and never won more than seven games in a season. Quarterbacks on those teams have included Bradford, Kellen Clemens, Austin Davis, Shaun Hill, Nick Foles and Keenum.
All swell guys, we're sure, but they're not leading the Rams to the postseason anytime soon. Given that, and the reality that it's reasonable to think Fisher and Snead will be looking for work should the Rams flop again in 2016, staking everything on the No. 1 pick is a risk worth taking.
"Yeah, but imagine what they could do with all those picks they traded away!" you might scream.
You don't have to imagine it. On paper, the Rams were the beneficiaries of a similar trade four years ago when the Redskins moved up to No. 2 to take Robert Griffin III.
Since this will again be a big storyline this week, here's a full breakdown of "the trade." pic.twitter.com/fC6OmXHOoD
— Casey Pearce (@ccpearce) September 15, 2015
Funny story: Since 2012, the Redskins have twice been to the playoffs after winning their division. They did it with RG3 in 2012 and with Kirk Cousins (a fourth-round pick in 2012) last season. So troll away, Jeff, the jokes on you.
But Fisher hopes to change all that in the coming weeks and months. And while we don't have an issue with the trade from the Rams' perspective -- despite its one-sided appearance -- reality and history says that quarterbacks selected first overall are a notoriously fickle bunch that span the gamut from first-ballot Hall of Famers to replacement-level talents to full-fledged flameouts.
(Same holds for quarterbacks who go No. 2. We mention this because the Browns pick second, and despite signing Griffin to a two-year deal last month, they are very much in the market for a franchise quarterback. The list of previous candidates is as long as it is depressing.
There have been reports that the Browns would be willing to trade down to accumulate more picks, and with teams like the 49ers and Eagles also in the market for a quarterback, it's not out of the question.)
Whomever the Rams (and, possibly, the Browns) end up taking won't be some magic elixir to a problem that has plagued the organization since Marc Bugler was throwing touchdown passes to Torry Holt.
For every Peyton Manning, Terry Bradshaw and John Elway -- first-overall picks with multiple Super Bowl titles and 421 wins among them -- there are also the David Carrs, JaMarcus Russells and Tim Couches of the NFL world. In fairness, Carr, Russell and Couch came into near-untenable situations, though some of that, particularly when talking about Russell's attitude about hard work, was self-inflicted.
OK, to the numbers ...
| Performances of QBs drafted in the top two | ||||||
| Year | Pick | Quarterback | GS | Record | Win % | Career AV |
| 1998 | 1 | Peyton Manning | 265 | 186-79-0 | 70.2% | 177 |
| 1970 | 1 | Terry Bradshaw HOF | 158 | 107-51-0 | 67.7% | 106 |
| 1983 | 1 | John Elway HOF | 231 | 148-82-1 | 64.3% | 138 |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck | 55 | 35-20-0 | 63.6% | 45 |
| 1999 | 2 | Donovan McNabb | 161 | 98-62-1 | 61.3% | 107 |
| 2011 | 1 | Cam Newton | 78 | 45-32-1 | 58.4% | 76 |
| 1989 | 1 | Troy Aikman HOF | 165 | 94-71-0 | 57.0% | 97 |
| 2005 | 1 | Alex Smith | 121 | 68-52-1 | 56.7% | 72 |
| 2001 | 1 | Michael Vick | 115 | 61-51-1 | 54.5% | 93 |
| 2004 | 1 | Eli Manning | 183 | 97-86-0 | 53.0% | 104 |
| 2003 | 1 | Carson Palmer | 159 | 83-76-0 | 52.2% | 100 |
| 1993 | 1 | Drew Bledsoe | 193 | 98-95-0 | 50.8% | 103 |
| 1971 | 1 | Jim Plunkett | 144 | 72-72-0 | 50.0% | 85 |
| 1973 | 2 | Bert Jones | 96 | 47-49-0 | 49.0% | 81 |
| 1975 | 1 | Steve Bartkowski | 127 | 59-68-0 | 46.5% | 70 |
| 2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford | 93 | 42-51-0 | 45.2% | 64 |
| 1987 | 1 | Vinny Testaverde | 214 | 90-123-1 | 42.3% | 97 |
| 2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford | 63 | 25-37-1 | 40.3% | 33 |
| 2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin | 35 | 14-21-0 | 40.0% | 32 |
| 2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston | 16 | 6-10-0 | 37.5% | 13 |
| 1999 | 1 | Tim Couch | 59 | 22-37-0 | 37.3% | 30 |
| 1990 | 1 | Jeff George | 124 | 46-78-0 | 37.1% | 65 |
| 1993 | 2 | Rick Mirer | 68 | 24-44-0 | 35.3% | 32 |
| 2002 | 1 | David Carr | 79 | 23-56-0 | 29.1% | 44 |
| 2007 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell | 25 | 7-18-0 | 28.0% | 6 |
| 1971 | 2 | Archie Manning | 139 | 35-101-3 | 25.7% | 75 |
| 2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota | 12 | 3-9-0 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 1998 | 2 | Ryan Leaf | 21 | 4-17-0 | 19.0% | 1 |
| Totals | 1,639-1,548-10 | 51.4% | ||||
| Source: Pro Football Reference | ||||||
Since 1970, the average winning percentage of quarterbacks taken either No. 1 or No. 2 is .514. Remove Peyton Manning and it drops to .496. But wins aren't the best measure of quarterback success -- there are also things like Pro-Football-Reference.com's Career Approximate Value, and more conventional stats like completion percentage, yards per attempt and TD-to-INT ratios. So let's take a look at those too.
Career Approximate Value leaders (per game)
1. Cam Newton
2. Robert Griffin III
3. Andrew Luck
4. Jameis Winson
5. Bert Jones
And the bottom five: David Carr, Vinny Testaverde, Rick Mirer, JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf.
Completion percentage leaders
1. Peyton Manning
2. Robert Griffin III
3. Carson Palmer
4. Marcus Mariota
5. Troy Aikman
And the bottom five: Rick Mirer, Jim Plunkett, JaMarcus Russell, Terry Bradshaw, Ryan Leaf.
Yards per attempt leaders
1. Peyton Manning
2. Robert Griffin III
3. Marcus Mariota
4. Jameis Winson
5. Cam Newton
And the bottom five: Sam Bradford, David Carr, JaMarcus Russell, Rick Mirer, Ryan Leaf.
TD-to-INT leaders
1. Peyton Manning
2. Donovan McNabb
3. Marcus Mariota
4. Andrew Luck
5. Cam Newton
And the bottom five: Jim Plunkett, JaMarcus Russell, Archie Manning, Rick Mirer, Ryan Leaf.
(You can see all the data here, courtesy of the always excellent Pro-Football-Reference.com)
A few things stick out: Peyton Manning was very, very, very good. This is no surprise. What is, however, is that RG3's name popped up several times, and perhaps that portends good things in Cleveland, especially if new coach Hue Jackson can get Griffin back on track. (That said, we fully expect the Browns to take a quarterback.)
Also: It's hard to quantify just how bad Russell and Ryan Leaf were, two names that continue to battle for the label of "biggest draft bust ever."
Of course, the Rams know the uncertainty that comes with the first-overall pick. They lived it back in 2010, when they drafted Bradford, whose history of injuries followed him to the NFL. In four seasons in St. Louis, Bradford missed 15 games and only once (in an injury-shortened '13 season) had a passer rating of at least 90.0.
But we'll repeat what we said above: What do the Rams have to lose? They've been mediocre since Fisher arrived, and there's no reason to think they wouldn't have been mediocre -- or worse -- again in 2016.
If they can land their guy -- whether it's Carson Wentz or Jared Goff or some mystery candidate -- and manage him in much the same way guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton and even Colin Kaepernick early in his career were brought along, there's reason to believe the Rams could be a legit playoff contender. With a stifling defense, and a running game that features Todd Gurley, this is a great situation for a promising young quarterback to get on-the-job training.
Whether he'll be the next Andrew Luck, JaMarcus Russell, or somewhere in between (Alex Smith? Matthew Stafford?) will have to be a discussion for another time.
