This is a crazy high line, and Andrew Luck is the king of coming through the back door given the Colts setup (bad defense, lack of traditional running game), but he threw 60+ times last week, which is a concern. Even with Rob Gronkowski potentially missing, Tom Brady can get it done with the return of Julian Edelman coming this week. Thursday night home teams are covering at a high rate lately.
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Jaguars (+3) at Chiefs
The Chiefs weren't exposed on Monday night, because the Broncos are just good on defense and have a great home-field advantage. But it's clear the Chiefs might not be quite as dominant when they play an elite defense. The Jaguars get them on the road but they also get them on a short week.
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Lions (+1.5) vs. Packers
This line makes no sense and I hate it and I'm going to pick the Lions anyway. Aaron Rodgers owns the Lions -- he's 13-3 in his career against Detroit with 34 touchdowns and just six interceptions in those 16 games. It's terrifying to take an overmatched Lions team, but I feel like EVERYONE is going to be on Green Bay and something's got my antenna up on this one so I'm going Detroit. Wish me luck.
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Bills (+3.5) vs. Titans
Everyone who reads this space (or me in general) knows how I feel about the Tennessee Titans. I love them. But they're getting a little too much hype right now and I'm not sure they're the type of team that is going to go on the road after a massive win over the defending Super Bowl champions and just blow out another low-scoring defensive team. Give me the hook here.
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Dolphins (+6) at Bengals
This line is too high in my opinion. The Dolphins are a weird team but they were 3-0 until they got annihilated by the Patriots in Foxborough on Sunday. The Bengals are a good squad but they're not going to just magically hang 40 on everyone every week. Give me Miami catching the points in an overreaction spot.
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Ravens (-3) at Browns
Baker Mayfield and the Browns lobbed up some points against the Raiders in Oakland, but now they're coming a long way home for a matchup against a very good defense that gets Jimmy Smith back. Rookie quarterbacks are 4-12 against John Harbaugh since he took over the Ravens in 2008 and a lot of those are with the Browns. As long as it's a field goal or less I'll lay the points on the road with Harbaugh sitting at 9-1 in Cleveland over his tenure right now.
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Panthers (-7) vs. Giants
This is a ton of points in the Dave Gettleman Bowl, but the Panthers are a trustworthy team at home against a terrible Giants squad. Ron Rivera is 3-0 straight up and against the spread in the last three years following the bye. The Giants are largely considered a good team against the run, but they're 29th in DVOA, so that may be reputation based more than anything. Christian McCaffrey could be primed to go off again. Carolina is 5-2 against the spread as a touchdown or more fave since 2014 as well.
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Jets (-1) vs. Broncos
It's hard to trust the Jets after all they did against the Jaguars on Sunday, but people might be sleeping on their schedule so far: they've only played a single game at home in the first four weeks. That's tough. (It was a loss to the Dolphins by the way.) I think Denver is a good matchup for them: the Broncos are vulnerable to a power run game and the Jets should be able to limit the Broncos offense enough to keep this close and steal a win.
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Steelers (-3) vs. Falcons
Can I just tell you to bet the over? You should bet the over in this game, even though it's at 57, an absurdly high number for an NFL game. Neither team has any defense, though, so give me the home team in a game that's going to come down to who has the ball last.
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Chargers (-5.5) vs. Raiders
I don't believe in much, but I definitely believe in the Chargers loafing around during September only to get their, ahem, mess together come October. "Oh look these games count!" And I can see them hammer jacking the Raiders in this game, even if there are way more Raiders fans in L.A. than Chargers fans. Take the Raiders in the first half and the Bolts in the second half as Melvin Gordon pours it on with another huge game. He's somehow underrated.
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Seahawks (+7.5) vs. Rams
Do NOT feel good about this game but I'm required to pick all the matchups so here we go: let's take Seattle getting a full touchdown and potentially more by the time Sunday actually rolls around. The Rams are a MUCH better team and they're coming off 10 days rest thanks to playing Thursday night, but Seattle is a tough place to play and I think you see an inspired effort from Seattle in a desperate spot.
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Cardinals (+4.5) at 49ers
No one wants to back the hapless Cardinals, but they could have a couple of wins at this point were it not for some coaching miscues. I think they might get their first win here too: the 49ers are overvalued after getting a good effort from C.J. Beathard and Josh Rosen flashed in his first start. Levi's Stadium isn't a scary place to make a road start and he and Larry Fitzgerald should be able to hook up a few times in this game against a questionable pass defense.
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Vikings (+3) at Eagles
Ten days rest for a Minnesota team that people are way down on despite their pedigree and I could see the offense continuing to put up some big numbers this week against the Eagles. Very curious how they stack the defense against Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen -- one of them is going to have a big game in an NFC Championship Game rematch/revenge battle.
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Texans (+3) at Cowboys
Both these teams might be terrible, so I'll take the offense I trust more with Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, a group that should give the Cowboys some serious fits on their home floor. J.J. Watt is returning to full strength and we're not talking about it enough -- we will be after this game, which I think ends up being a Texans win.
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Redskins (+6.5) at Saints
I am HERE for the Adrian Peterson revenge tour -- he extracted a pound of flesh from the Cardinals, who cut him. He got payback against the Packers, who he played against for years and who declined to sign him. And now he gets to see the Saints and their porous defense in a prime time game. I think the Redskins could creep in and steal this game.
