Best of the rest: The mid-major teams, players that'll put the Madness in March
Expect Middle Tennessee State to build on its Michigan State upset from a year ago
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21 min read
We've previewed seven of the major, multi-bid conferences in college basketball this season, and they're filled with gobs of info, predictions, matrices, just really good stuff to get you sufficiently excited about the season bending up on the horizon.
Before we get going to the games, let's look at the rest of the sport. The best of the rest, if you will. From the A-10 to the SoCon, the Mountain West to the Ohio Valley, it's time to spotlight outstanding individual talents and a flock of teams with the personnel and potential to make noise from early on all the way to March. Important to note that while many of the teams and players listed below of the mid-major variety, there are a handful of teams who have long since graduated above mid-major status, too.
We'll get going with the players first.
Best 'Best-of-the-Rest' Player
Alec Peters, Valparaiso: I believe the 6-foot-9 senior, pound for pound, is one of the 20 best players in the country. I've written that elsewhere this preseason, but it bears repeating. Peters flirted with going pro but made a relatively surprising decision by choosing to stay at Valpo in a grad-transfer year -- even after Bryce Drew left to coach Vanderbilt. Peters could have transferred to any school in America. And he opted to stay. That's really cool. And Valpo's got enough returning around him to contend for an at-large bid if they get good Ws the first six weeks.
Seventeen more studs to know
(Listed in alphabetical order)
Jaylen Adams, St. Bonaventure: Has really good talent -- probably top-three-in-the-Atlantic-10 talent. Can he break out in a huge way? St. Bonaventure will need it to earn a Big Dance bid. Averaged 17.9 points, 5.0 assists and 3.7 boards last season.
Evan Bradds, Belmont: The next great offensive machine to come out of Rick Byrd's system in Nashville. Bradds (17.6 PPG in 2015-16) probably will put up more than 20 points a game and likely comes close to averaging a double-double. He shot 71.2 percent last season. Certainly on the short list of best mid-major players.
Elijah Brown, New Mexico: Right now, I think he's the best player in the Mountain West. Brown, a junior who averaged 21.7 points in obscurity last season, is also good on the boards and can dish. He might average 22/6/4, really. If that happens, he'll be the Mountain West Player of the Year.
Tyler Cavanaugh, George Washington): Cavanaugh also will get a boost by not having to be the only guy producing. Seton Hall transfer Jaren Sina will take some attention away from Cavanaugh. But Cavanaugh will carry GW as far as it goes and should be a double-double machine. Had the option to play at many a big-name schools in his grad-year transfer season but chose to stay.
T.J. Cline, Richmond: An unknown talent, the 6-9 senior averaged 18.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists and shot 56 percent in 30 minutes a game last season. Richmond's a dark horse pick to finish top-three in the A-10. Cline's going to get a lot of scouts to Spiders games.
Charles Cooke, Dayton: Again will be the Flyers' best all-around player. The senior averaged 15.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.3 steals on a team that for the most part wins by committee. Cooke is Archie Miller's safety valve, and I think he'll be especially capable and reliable.
Mike Daum, South Dakota State: Check out the feature written here at CBS Sports by Gary Parrish. Daum's journey is interesting and unusual. He's probably the best player in the Summit League and could wind up posting 20 points and eight boards per game.
Nick Emery, BYU:Was immediately awesome for BYU last season. Emery averaged 16/4/3 and almost certainly will see his offensive usage go up. If he gets his 3-point rate into the 40s, look out. BYU is better than a lot of people think. Emery's just the next guy in line to put up great numbers in Dave Rose's system.
Marcus Evans, Rice: Could become an NBA prospect if he continues the tear he started as a freshman last season. Evans was a top-five player in Conference USA. He averaged 21.4 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.2 steals and shot 47 percent. Rice will be better than .500 this season, and Evans probably will continue to be one of the best players few people get to see.
Jack Gibbs, Davidson: Could lead the nation in scoring. Gibbs is perfect for Bob McKillop's offense. He averaged 23.5 points last season, along with 4.9 dimes and 4.1 rebounds. If Davidson makes the NCAAs, Gibbs will have a shot at being an All-American if he's top-five in the nation in scoring. Got a shot. He'll probably take more than 250 3s. Not in one game; that would be a record.
Hassan Martin, Rhode Island: Martin is a top-three defender measured against everyone else you see here. He'll tilt the floor from that perspective, and I'd love to see him flirt with a points/boards/blocks triple-double, though that's asking a bit too much. But Martin -- who has massive paws -- is a great athlete with a big motor and terrific ethic.
E.C. Matthews, Rhode Island: Matthews pairs so well with Martin, you can't help but be in on Rhode Island. It was these two guys' decision to go to URI that changed the course of the program. Matthews was sought after by bigger schools, but there's a good story to be written here: He went down minutes into URI's first game last season. Now's his chance to find redemption -- and likely average more than 15 points along the way.
Markis McDuffie, Wichita State: It might be tough to envision Wichita State being really good without Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker. That duo, along with Evan Wessel, led a class that won more games (121) than any other in WSU history. But now it's McDuffie's time to pop. The super-fun wing player, when healthy, can be the best all-around prospect in the Missouri Valley.
Emmett Naar, Saint Mary's: Wait until you really get a look at Naar. He'll improve on his team-leading 14.3 points per game mark from last season. He'll thrive in Randy Bennett's system and should be an easy pick for All-WCC.
Cameron Oliver, Nevada: Terrific pro prospect who nearly averaged a double-double last season (13.4 points, 9.1 rebounds). He's a solid 6-8, and if he's put on some muscle, Oliver will be dominant in the Mountain West. The fun part of writing this is providing clues about guys they might not have seen but will discover in November.
Justin Robinson, Monmouth: A stats beast for the Hawks. Averaged 19.3 points/3.8 rebounds/3.7 assists/2.2 steals, and he's not even 5-10. Also, he can shoot it from deep and take almost anyone in America off the dribble. Swag for days.
Nigel Williams-Goss, Gonzaga: Will run the point and could turn into an All-American candidate if the Bulldogs wind up chasing a 4 seed or better. Williams-Goss was a five-star prospect who committed to Washington but likely will find his voice and fit in Spokane. I can see him averaging 15 points, six assists and five rebounds.
Top 'Best-of-the-Rest' teams
Now, let's look at the teams. Here are 20 squads from outside the Big Ten, Big East, ACC, AAC, Pac-12, SEC and Big 12, listed in alphabetical order. All start with realistic hopes of winning their league and/or playing in the 2017 NCAA Tournament.
Akron Zips
The best team in the MAC East. And overall, I put them above Ohio, Eastern Michigan and Buffalo. Akron went 26-9 last season, tying the school's single-season wins record. The program has been so good under Keith Dambrot and should get back to the NCAA Tournament. Another 13-win (or better) conference season is the bar now. Center Isaiah Johnson is back. He put up almost 14 and 8 last season. Antino Jackson: also back, and he'll be bolstered in the backcourt by Noah Robotham, whose last name I wish was pronounced "robot ham."
Projected regular-season win total: 21
Akron's going to have to overcome only two interesting road games: at Creighton and Gonzaga. There are a lot of opportunities. The Zips also have a solid bench and a coaching advantage with Dambrot's consistent schemes.
Belmont Bruins
Rick Byrd is back with another club that's bound to be brilliant on offense. Evan Bradds leads a team looking to make its fifth NCAA Tournament in seven seasons. Byrd's never won an NCAA Tournament game. Can this be the year? Belmont slices you up by moving the ball, pushing tempo and taking smart shots. Should be the Ohio Valley's best team.
Projected regular-season win total: 20
The AdvoCare inviational will offer up Florida for sure, then Gonzaga, Miami, Seton Hall, Stanford, Iowa State or Indiana State. Belmont is talented enough to steal two of three games. The Bruins have six true road games, though, and it's not going to get to 10 wins in nonconference play. Will probably be a little bruised up, but should find its footing in conference play. I'll say a 13-3 season in the OVC.
BYU Cougars
Remember, Elijah Bryant is an incoming transfer from Elon. He'll wind up being a double-digit scorer alongside Nick Emery. Houston transfer L.J. Rose also might factoring in, and Eric Mika is back from a two-year mission. Emery will probably be among the nation's top 10 scorers, and Mika will be a top-30 rebounder. T.J. Haws, another player returning from a mission, will hope to produce the way his older brother, Tyler, did a couple of years back. Power forward Kyle Davis fills out the lineup.
Projected regular-season win total: 20
Princeton, maybe Valpo, at USC, home to Colorado, vs. Illinois in Chicago. That's the tough part of the noncon for BYU. There are opportunities for a lot of wins. The Cougars have been coached by Dave Rose since 2005. They've failed to make the NCAA Tournament thrice in that span, but still won at least 20 games each season. The Cougars will hit 20 once more.
Chattanooga Mocs
The SoCon's best team was very good last season with wins over Georgia, Illinois and Dayton en route to 29 victories. Matt McCall is one of the game's best young coaches, and he'll have the benefit of a veteran-laden squad. Tre' McLean and Justin Tuoyo probably will combine to average 30 points.
Projected regular-season win total: 22
The Mocs can knock off Tennessee on the road in their opener Friday. Keep an eye out. North Carolina follows, and that's a hard ask, but elsewhere on the schedule? Only a road game against Vanderbilt provides a steep challenge -- and that might not even be that steep. Mocs might enter league play with nine wins.
Dayton Flyers
Can't fault anyone who wants to slot the Flyers ahead of Rhode Island in the A-10 based on Archie Miller's coaching ability and the culture at Dayton. This team has been nationally relevant and widely respected the past three seasons. The Flyers probably will be comfortably in the NCAAs again, thanks to Charles Cooke (so underrated right now by most outside the A-10), Scoochie Smith -- and I think Bradley transfer Josh Cunningham is the X factor here.
Projected regular-season win total: 22
Alabama on the road, Saint Mary's at home, a possible matchup with UCLA, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech or New Mexico in Anaheim, Vanderbilt at home. The Flyers have a perfect schedule on the whole. Enough good chances for nice wins but nothing incredibly tough.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Estimated to be anywhere from a top-10 to a top-20 team in the preseason. Pretty impressive because the Zags lost Kyle Wiltjer, Domantas Sabonis and Eric McClellan (the team's three most reliable offensive players). However, reinforcements are coming. No program will rely more on transfers than the Bulldogs. The backcourt of Nigel Williams-Goss and Jordan Mathews will create a national storyline portraying Gonzaga as a new transfer destination, certainly, but they're not the whole story. Ex-Missouri player Johnathan Williams also is in Spokane. The big man in the middle, Przemek Karnowski, is back for a final season. Will his back hold up?
Projected regular-season win total: 23
The West Coast Conference is going to be tougher on the whole. Saint Mary's might prove to be better than Gonzaga, in fact, and BYU is probably going to have its deepest roster in more than five years. The schedule isn't easy, either. Gonzaga faces San Diego State, Arizona, Washington (improved!), Akron, plus two of these teams in later rounds of the AdvoCare Invitational: Florida, Miami, Seton Hall, Stanford, Iowa State, Indiana State.
Illinois State Redbirds
I've got the Redbirds No. 57 overall in my 1-351 ranking. Think they will have a chance to steal the Valley title from Wichita State. The starting five is strong and talented, and with Wichita State not likely to be as good this season as it was last, now's the time to strike for Dan Muller's crew. Paris Lee and MiKyle McIntosh could be two of the five best players in the league, truth be told.
Projected regular-season win total: 20
The nonconference schedule isn't treacherous. In fact, it lacks heft other than the Diamond Head Classic, which should provide Utah or San Diego State, either opponent would be a boon to Illinois State's resume.
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
My nickname growing up was "Giddy," so I feel a kinship with Giddy Potts, the best 3-point shooter in America last season. The Blue Raiders broke NCAA brackets with their 15-over-2 thrashing of Michigan State in the first round. Kermit Davis brings back a majority of those players, so you have to consider Middle Tennessee among the 20 best of the rest. Reggie Upshaw will probably have the heaviest usage on the team again.
Projected regular-season win total: 20
Here's a heck of a five-game stretch, particularly for a team like Middle: at Ole Miss, at South Alabama, vs. Vanderbilt, at Belmont, at VCU. Starts Nov. 30, ends Dec. 17. Getting two wins in that stretch would be huge. Going 3-2 would put Middle in the at-large convo, so long as it doesn't lose any bad games at home.
Monmouth Hawks
Justin Robinson barely missed out on our top 100 (and one) players list. I wish we'd been able to squeeze him in. He's a dynamo. I hope he's able to have another huge season. The team around him is steady and sturdy, but he fuels them. Monmouth should have made last season's NCAA Tournament but was shafted by the selection committee. A Monmouth rage/revenge tour, which I would love, depends on how this team gets out of the gate.
Projected regular-season win total: 21
If Monmouth is going to repeat its nonconference scalp collection from last season, it will have to beat at least three teams in this group: South Carolina, Syracuse, North Carolina, Princeton, Wagner and Memphis -- many on the road. Getting three victories in those six games would be gargantuan. Winning only one probably takes the Hawks out of the at-large discussion, lest they run the MAAC table.
Nevada Wolf Pack
Your sleeper pick for a team that can wind up as a single-digit seed. The Wolf Pack will be better in Year Two under Eric Musselman. Impressive, considering Nevada won 24 games last season. That was spurred by a surprise freshman named Cameron Oliver, who is now one of the 10 best sophomores in America. Jordan Caroline is also going to be really good. This will probably be one of the 40 best defensive teams in America in terms of points per possession allowed. I hope it continues to push the pace, too.
Projected regular-season win total: 20
Kudos to Musselman for going on the road Friday to open against Saint Mary's. That's probably a loss but a lesson learned. Nevada's schedule outside of league play is not overly challenging yet not cupcake overload. The road game against Washington on Dec. 11 could be explosively fun. Oliver vs. Markelle Fultz? Oh, yeah.
Princeton Tigers
Ranked 36th by KenPom to enter the season. Ranked 60th at the end of last season. The Tigers have a loaded lineup and could be one of the strongest teams in the Ivy since Cornell seven years ago. Henry Caruso is the star, but Spencer Weisz and Steve Cook also have all-league potential. There's a dude named Hans, and he's tall, so that's fun. Hans Brase will make Princeton's frontcourt undeniably the best in the Ivy. Shooting guard Devin Cannady should shine. The Tigers look to be neck and neck with Seton Hall as New Jersey's best team.
Projected regular-season win total: 20
The Tigers don't have a simple schedule. At BYU, at Lehigh, at Lafayette is how the season starts. At VCU comes soon after. There's a game against Cal in Hawaii. Also, to Monmouth five days before Christmas. Princeton will take on a few losses before the Ivy slate comes around. Twenty wins is pragmatic.
Rhode Island Rams
A preseason top 20 team in the eyes of many. I know Dan Hurley is excited about this group. It's long, strong, athletic and aggressive. Health is the key. E.C. Matthews missed all of last season, but he's back. Hassan Martin also is at full strength. Kuran Iverson, Jarvis Garrett, Stan Robinson (by way of Indiana), Jared Terrell and Christion Thompson. Man, there's a lot here. URI should expect an NCAA Tournament berth. Hurley passed on the Rutgers job because he knew there was plenty to accomplish with this group.
Projected regular-season win total: 22
Interesting games: Cincinnati, then maybe Duke at Mohegan Sun in November for the Hall of Fame event, Belmont at home on Nov. 25, then to Valpo three days later. You'll notice both of those teams also are on this list. At Providence, even if PC is down, will be a hatefest for the fans and a test for URI. At Houston is no gimme, either. Ultimately, the talent should get URI 12 or 13 wins in the league, and it can pull off another nine in noncon play.
St. Mary's Gaels
This team should be pretty solid. The Gaels won 29 games against the 136th-toughest schedule in the country. The schedule will be top-100 tough this season, thankfully, and the starting five returns. The starting five, by the way, healthy all of last season. The standout is Emmett Naar, who's mentioned above, but Dane Pineau could be the double-double bailout guy. Joe Rahon also might pop. In general, Randy Bennett's unit is going to be well-greased and probably a top-15 team on offense.
Projected regular-season win total: 23
The Gaels will sprint with BYU and Gonzaga in the WCC. I find it hard to see any of the three winning few than 14 of their 18 league games. Mark Saturday, Jan. 14, down on the calendar. That's Gonzaga's trip to SMC. Might set the tone for the league race. In nonconference play, opening Friday against Nevada is terrific. Dayton (road game), UAB, Stanford (road game) also are in the mix. SMC won't finish the WCC tournament with as many wins as last season, but the team's going to be better.
San Diego State Aztecs
It's a Steve Fisher-coached Aztecs team, which means it's going to be stellar on defense. SDSU has ranked in the top 15 of KenPom's defensive efficiency metric five of the past six seasons and figures to do so again. Four big names are back: Malik Pope, Zylan Cheatham, Trey Kell and Jeremy Hemsley. Look for transfers Montaque Gill-Caesar and Valentine Izundu to be critical in SDSU's chase to win the Mountain West over Nevada and New Mexico.
Projected regular-season win total: 21
At Gonzaga, Cal, at Grand Canyon -- and then maybe Illinois State or Utah in the Diamond Head Classic. That's the toughest part of SDSU's noncon schedule. The team's offense will probably not be top-two in the league, but Cheatham/Pope combo will be very fun, and Kell is a top-three player in the conference.
UAB Blazers
I put up this state-by-state ranking last week, and boy did UAB fans let me have it. In fact, I'll give up love to the Blazers fans. That's a base who is knowledgeable, passionate and takes pride in having what they deem to be the most prestigious basketball program in the Yellowhammer State. Chris Cokley and William Lee will be the names to know, as Rob Ehsan takes over for Jerod Haase, who got the Stanford gig.
Projected regular-season win total: 20
The CBE Hall of Fame Classic will be interesting. The game against Kansas, just chalk it up as an L. But Georgia or George Washington the next night will be a great litmus test for UAB, because it could strike hot against either of those teams. Saint Mary's, at Stephen F. Austin, at Memphis, at Texas. All tall tasks. In Conference USA it's going to be raucous. Twenty wins is sensible for this group with a new coach.
UNC-Wilmington Seahawks
The Seahawks were a 13 seed in last season's NCAA Tournament. Pretty impressive, considering it was a nine-win team two seasons prior. Kevin Keatts' program is set up to be the most well-rounded in the CAA this season. I'd expect to see some press. Denzel Ingram and Chris Flemmings will lead the way. If they can up their 3-point rates, then look out.
Projected regular-season win total: 23
The Seahawks are the only team listed here that doesn't play one team projected to make the NCAA Tournament with more than 50-percent confidence. Clemson and Middle Tennessee are the only schools that come close. It seems a lock that Keatts' team soars past the 20-W mark by the first week of March.
Texas-Arlington Mavericks
Scott Cross' group went 24-11 last season, 13-7 in the Sun Belt, and became one of the more entertaining mid-major teams on the move. This group can go. This season, the Mavs feature an NBA prospect in Kevin Hervey. He'll be the best player on the floor in 70 percent of the Mavericks' games. The group loses almost nobody from last season. Should be a tough out if they reach the NCAAs.
Projected regular-season win total: 19
The rare team on this list not projected to win north of 20 games prior to conference tournament play. But the schedule isn't easy. Three of the first four games are on the road (Minnesota, Florida Gulf Coast, Arkansas), then there are games at Fordham, Texas, North Texas and Saint Mary's. The Mavericks will probably be right around .500 entering Sun Belt play. From there, the squad will have a good chance at winning or 14 league games. I'm going to be conservative in my forecast.
Valparaiso Crusaders
It's not just Alec Peters here, trust me. Valpo will be so strong defensively yet again. Shane Hammink's role on the power wing will complement Peters well. Replacing Vashil Fernandez down low will affect the Crusaders' blocking ability, but watch for a redshirt freshman named Derrik Smits. Son of Rik Smits, longtime Indiana Pacer. I think he'll be pretty nice this season. Canadian Tevonn Walker should pop, too.
Projected regular-season win total: 23
At Oregon the first week of the season is a tall task, but I love the ambition. Could face a tough BYU team in the MGM Grand Main Event event on Nov. 23. Then Rhode Island and a game at Kentucky. Those are the four toughest games outside of league play. Valpo will not trounce through the Horizon (Oakland and Green Bay are ready), but I do think this group plays well enough to win the league by two games.
VCU Rams
Will Wade's team probably won't be the Atlantic 10's best, but hard to see VCU failing to compete for an at-large bid. Mo Alie-Cox is a hoss, JeQuan Lewis (a senior already?!) is going to have a stellar year running point. Jordan Burgess is a glue-guy senior. Justin Tillman is poised to break out in this his junior season. The defense transitioned well in the first year of post-Shaka.
Projected regular-season win total: 20
Baylor, Michigan State, Wichita State, Louisville -- all in the mix in the Battle 4 Atlantis. VCU also gets Princeton in Richmond, Illinois in Miami (weird, but that's college hoops non-con scheduling for you), has a tricky game at Old Dominion, and will host formidable Middle Tennessee. VCU just lost an exhibition to a D-II team. The Rams are fun but flawed. Twenty wins before the A-10 tournament would be certainly acceptable.
Wichita State Shockers
The Shockers will tangle with Illinois State (and still get a fight from Northern Iowa) to be the best in the MVC. Until someone knocks Gregg Marshall off the throne, WSU is the de facto choice as the Valley's best. It's not just Markis McDuffie. Landry Shamet will probably make a name for himself in the region, and Conner Frankamp is likely to burst this season. He might wind up leading the team in scoring, even if McDuffie is the more important player. Shaq Morris is a load inside -- he'll be critical, so long as he dodges foul trouble. Zach Brown is the kind of fourth or fifth option that other Valley teams just don't have. It's why the Shockers are projected as a top-30 team.
Projected regular-season win total: 23
The Shockers have Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, plus a road game vs. Colorado State, but the Battle 4 Atlantis should be the biggie. A possible matchup with Louisville in the semis, and Baylor, VCU or Michigan State could be the last team WSU meets. The Valley won't be especially strong this year, but it should be top-14, overall. Twenty-three wins is a rational prediction for the Shockers.
