Pac-12 North win totals: Can anybody topple Stanford and Oregon at the top?

Stanford or Oregon have won the Pac-12 in every season since 2009, yet Vegas doesn't consider either of them to be the favorite in their own division this year.

While the Pac-12 South is normally considered the strongest from top-to-bottom of the conference's two divisions, it's been the Pac-12 North that has held all the power.

Or, to be specific, it's been Stanford and Oregon running roughshod over the left coast's best. One of those two schools has been the Pac-12's champion in each season since 2009 (though it was still the Pac-10 in 2009 and 2010). Because of this recent era of dominance by the Ducks and Cardinal, you'd think it was only natural that they'd both be considered the favorites within their own division yet again this season, but according to the win totals for 2016 from Vegas Insider, that's not the case.

Nobody in the Pac-12, or the Pac-12 North, has a higher win total set than...the Washington Huskies?

Yes, fresh off a season in which the Huskies finished 7-6, their win total for 2016 is set at nine. Will they be able to reach that total and win the Pac-12 North? What are Stanford and Oregon expected to do? What about the rest of the division?

We're still a few months away from the beginning of the 2016 season, but it's never to early to gauge everybody's chances.

Washington, 9 (Over -110, Under -110): Washington is that team on the come up. Yes, it finished 7-6 overall last season, and 4-5 in the conference, but it won its final three games, and had a point differential of +81 in conference despite the losing record. It was also a very young team, with a strong defense that returns mostly intact, as well as young talent on offense, led by quarterback Jake Browning and running back Myles Gaskin.

But it is all enough to win more than nine games?

Looking at Washington's non-conference schedule -- all home games against Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State -- it's easy to envision a 3-0 start to the season. So the question becomes can this team go 6-3 in conference play.

Well, there are some things stacked against it, one of which is that 2016 is a season in which schools from the North will play five road games to four at home. Washington's road games this season include Arizona, Oregon, Utah, Cal and Washington State to finish the season. Stanford, Oregon State, USC and Arizona State will make their way to Seattle, and once conference play begins, there is no respite for the Huskies.

Of the nine Pac-12 teams they'll play this season, Oregon State is the only team that failed to play in a bowl.

Which is why, in my opinion, even if Washington does improve as just about everybody expects it to, I think 10 wins is just a bridge too far. So, since it's no fun to root for a push, I'm going to say the smartest play here is 8-4. Pick: Under

Stanford, 8.5 (Over +100, Under -120): When you first see Stanford set at 8.5 wins, it just seems way too low. After all, in five seasons under David Shaw, Stanford has managed to win less than 8.5 games only once, when it went 8-5 in 2014. The Cardinal are 46-9 in Shaw's other four seasons, never failing to win less than 11 games in any one of them.

But there are reasons for skepticism this year. Logical ones.

Stanford needs to replace over half of its offensive line, its quarterback, and a decent portion of its defensive line as well. While Christian McCaffrey will remain one of the most dynamic players in the country, there are clearly a lot of other questions at other key positions.

It also has a difficult schedule to navigate its way through. In fact, Stanford has one of the odder schedules I've seen in recent years.

I'd wager that nobody has a more difficult first two months of the season than Stanford will, as its first six games come against Kansas State, USC, at UCLA, at Washington, Washington State and then at Notre Dame. There are bye weeks scheduled between Kansas State and USC, as well as Washington and Washington State, but Stanford will be an inexperienced team that won't be afforded much time to learn.

While the back half of the schedule is more manageable, it still includes road trips to Arizona, Oregon and Cal, as well as a date with Rice scheduled after conference play, and a week before the Pac-12 title game.

Still, while it won't be easy, I have faith in Stanford's ability to reload because we've seen the Cardinal do it for a few years now. So when taking that into account, and adding in the positive value on taking the over, I think the smartest bet here is Stanford winning nine games rather than only eight. Pick: Over

Stanford won its third Pac-12 title in four seasons last year. USATSI

Oregon, 8 (Over -110, Under -110): It wasn't surprising to see Oregon take a step back last season. Quarterbacks like Marcus Mariota aren't easy to replace, and that was evident with the Ducks last season, even if they still managed to go 7-2 in conference play.

In 2016 the Ducks will have another graduate transfer at quarterback in Dakota Prukop, and while there are questions there about continuity when you keep relying on quarterbacks who haven't been groomed in your system, there are big questions elsewhere remaining as well.

Oregon's defensive secondary was abysmal last season, and the defensive line loses DeForest Buckner -- a disruptive force that can go a long way to covering up deficiencies in the secondary. While Oregon became known nationally for its up-tempo offense, the truth of the matter is, no matter how quickly Oregon scored, it was at its best when it had a stellar defensive unit to pair with that offense.

It did not have one last year, and I don't know that new defensive coordinator Brady Hoke will be able to deliver one in his first season this year.

The non-conference schedule includes what should be an easy win against UC Davis, as well as a winnable home game against Virginia and a road trip to Nebraska. A 3-0 start is certainly plausible, but 2-1 seems like the most likely outcome. Once the Ducks reach conference play, they have the benefit of getting both Washington and Stanford -- their two biggest threats in the North -- at Autzen Stadium. Road games against Washington State, USC and Utah won't be as forgiving, however.

The more I try to go through the schedule, the more convinced I become that Vegas has this win total nailed, but as I already said, it's no fun rooting for a push. So I'm going to give Oregon the benefit of the doubt and say it picks up a win somewhere I don't expect it to reach 9-3. Pick: Over

Washington State, 7.5 (Over -110, Under -110): I did not see Washington State's 9-4 season coming last year. Most people didn't. The Cougars did, though, and now the questions becomes what can they do for an encore? I believe this 7.5 number is quite reasonable, as I'm somewhat skeptical that the Cougars will be able to come out and have the same kind of season.

That's not to say I believe they'll go back to missing a bowl game. It's more a belief that a few things went Wazzu's way last year that might not this year.

The Cougars went 6-3 in conference play last year, but aside from blowout wins over Oregon State and Colorado (two teams that went a combined 1-17 in Pac-12 play last season), they played a lot of close games. When you have a defense that allows 30.4 points per game against conference opponents, that's going to happen.

And that's my biggest question about Wazzu. Will it have a defense that's good enough to make it a consistent choice from week to week? I don't believe so.

With a non-conference schedule that features a road trip to Boise State sandwiched between home dates against Eastern Washington and Idaho, I see a 2-1 start to the season, which means the Cougars will have to go 6-3 in conference play yet again to reach this over. I just don't see that happening. Pick: Under

California, 4 (Over -120, Under +100): Cal had Jared Goff last season, the quarterback chosen as the first pick in the NFL Draft, and it still only managed to go 8-5, with a 4-5 mark in conference play. When looking at this win total of four, it's clear that Vegas believes Goff was responsible for a lot of Cal's success.

Which I get.

There are a lot of questions surrounding this Cal team heading into a new season. Not only will the Bears be breaking in a new quarterback, but a new offensive coordinator as well, as Jake Spavital comes from Texas A&M to take over for Tony Franklin.

Of course, even if the offense is able to maintain the level of success it had under Goff, there are still plenty of questions about a Cal defense that allowed 33.1 points per game in conference play last season. There weren't many areas of Cal's defense you could look at last season and say "that's respectable."

I have strong doubts much will change in 2016.

The Bears also face a difficult schedule, as they open the season with Hawaii, and that's the "easiest" opponent it will face all season. A road trip to San Diego State, which won 11 games last season, follows, as well as a date with Texas. Once conference play begins, I have a hard time seeing Cal favored against anybody but Oregon State, and even that game is on the road, so they may be underdogs there as well.

So, what I'm saying is, the Bears could be in for a long 2016. Pick: Under

Oregon State, 3.5 (Over -110, Under -110): When Gary Andersen left Wisconsin for Oregon State before last season, he did so knowing that he'd have a tough road to hoe in Corvallis. Nothing that happened in 2015 proved otherwise, and in fact, it may have just proven that the overhaul needed was even greater than expected.

Although the Beavers began the season 2-1, they went 0-9 in Pac-12 play, being outscored by an average of 25 points per game en route to their first winless conference season since 1997.

Now the Beavers head into 2016 having to find a new quarterback, and with a new defensive coordinator after Kilani Sitake left to take over at BYU.

As somebody who considers Gary Andersen to be a very good coach, I don't doubt for a moment that Oregon State is going to be a better football team in 2016. It's just, I don't know if that improvement will result in two more wins than it had last year.

It's hard to imagine the Beavers winning two non-conference games again when the schedule opens with a road trip to Minnesota, and features Boise State as well. The Beavers have some good fortune to draw Colorado from the Pac-12 South in cross-divisional play, but even that game -- perhaps the most winnable Pac-12 game on Oregon State's schedule -- will be played in Boulder. It just feels like 1-8, or maybe 2-7 is the best the Beavers can hope for in the Pac-12 this season. Pick: Under