MLB Trade Deadline Rumor Buy or Sell: Nats willing to deal Giolito for Miller?
The Nationals are willing to trade Giolito for Miller straight up, according to an MLB.com report
By
Mike Axisa
•
3 min read
Welcome to Rumor Buy or Sell. The trade deadline is this coming Monday, so between now and then we'll pick apart the juiciest rumors and determine whether they pass the sniff test, or are just typical trade deadline noise.
Rumor: The Nationals are reportedly willing to trade top pitching prospect Lucas Giolito to the Yankees straight up for reliever extraordinaire Andrew Miller. A one-for-one deal.
Sources who have spoken with #Nats believe they would trade Lucas Giolito to #Yankees for Andrew Miller, straight up.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 29, 2016
Background: The Nationals come into Friday with a 60-42 record, giving them a comfortable-ish four-game lead in the NL East. Their bullpen is a concern, however, especially now that Jonathan Papelbon is unable to get anyone out. Here are his last three outings:
| Date | Opp. | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K |
| July 24 | vs. SD | 2/3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| July 26 | @ CLE | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| July 28 | @ SF | 1/3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
That's eight runs on seven hits and four walks in one inning (!) spread across three appearances. Only one strikeout too. Papelbon was pulled in the middle of the inning all three times, so right now his status is a big question going forward. Is this a slump, or a sign something's wrong? (Hiding an injury, maybe?)
Of course, Miller is the type of pitcher the Nationals would like to add even if Papelbon was pitching like good ol' Papelbon. He's a game-changer in the late-innings, plus he's signed affordably through 2018. The Nats are a good team, but they know firsthand how important bullpens are in the postseason given their disappointing 2012 and 2014 NLDS exits.
Giolito, 22, is arguably the top pitching in baseball and inarguably one of the game's top prospects overall. MLB.com ranked him the top pitching prospect and No. 4 prospect overall in their recent top 100 prospects update. Baseball America had him as the No. 2 pitching prospect and No. 4 prospect overall. The consensus is that Giolito is a stud.
Unsurprisingly, it's been reported in recent days that the Nationals have made Giolito and several others off-limits. This is the time of year when every team says their top young players are off-limits, though we all know that isn't necessarily the case. It's just posturing. If everyone came out and said their top youngsters are available, they'd get lowballed with offers.
The Yankees set the market for an elite reliever earlier this week when they shipped Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs for four players, including top prospect Gleyber Torres. MLB.com and Baseball America ranked Torres as the No. 26 and 27 prospect in baseball in their midseason top 100 updates, respectively. Based on the Chapman trade, the Yankees want much more for Miller:
word is, yanks would need 3 times as much as they got for chapman to trade miller (that means quality, not 12 prospects!)
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 29, 2016
I'm guessing the logic there is the Yankees traded one postseason run of Chapman because he's a free agent after the season. Miller signed through 2018, so they'd be trading away three postseason runs of him. You don't have to agree with that logic, but I think that's where the Yankees are coming from.
Either way, it stands to reason that yes, Miller has way more trade value than Chapman by virtue of his contract. The Yankee don't have to trade Miller. They can keep him and try to win with him in 2017 and 2018. Perfectly reasonable. If someone wants Miller, they'll have to pay big, and Giolito would qualify as paying big.
Buy or Sell? I'm buying this, but with a caveat. I don't think GM Mike Rizzo wants to do this. Owner Ted Lerner, who is 90 and wants to win a World Series soon, could step in and orchestrate the trade. Rizzo knows he could stick Giolito in the bullpen in the second half and he'll probably dominate. Lerner simply might not care.
Also, regardless of whether the Nationals are willing to do this, I don't think the Yankees would be. Not straight up, anyway. One Giolito doesn't equal three times the Chapman package, to use that baseline. He's a great pitching prospect, not a generational one. He's a kid with great stuff but not quite the results to match, plus a Tommy John surgery in the recent past.
A year or two ago Giolito for Miller would be a no-brainer for the Yankees. The relief market now is so out of control right now that an elite pitching prospect probably isn't enough for two and a half years of an elite reliever. I do think some in the Nationals organization are willing to do this, and if the Yankees say yes, Washington might be getting a bargain.
