Bradley Beal is dangerous when he drives. (USATSI)
Bradley Beal can be dangerous when he drives. (USATSI)

When the Warriors refused to include Klay Thompson in a potential trade for Kevin Love last summer, the majority opinion was that they were making a huge mistake. Thompson was a fine two-way player with one truly elite skill, but how much room did he have to grow after his production seemingly plateaued in his third season?

In retrospect, that question seems stupid, but it was earnestly asked by plenty of people, myself included, who couldn't understand why the Warriors would hold on to Thompson when a franchise player like Love was available. Thompson seemed like an elite spot-up shooter with limited offensive skills otherwise, especially given his limitations as a playmaker and off-bounce creator.

After seeing Thompson play one season in Steve Kerr's offense, that all looks crazy. Thompson cut the share of his shots going to long 2-pointers down to 17.1 percent, the lowest mark of his career, while increasing his assist rate and free-throw rate, as the Warriors' new offense got him the ball in better position to attack the defense. Thompson didn't have much to improve on, but the small changes the Warriors made paid big dividends for him as he posted career highs pretty much across the board.

This isn't a post about Klay Thompson, though. It is about another talented young guard who, after three solid seasons in the league, hasn't quite taken the leap we expected. Could Bradley Beal benefit from a new coach the way Thompson did?

Through three seasons, Beal and Thompson look like very similar players. Thompson was a bit more efficient as a scorer overall, but Beal showed a bit more in terms of secondary skills, getting to the free-throw line, grabbing rebounds and dishing out assists all at a greater rate than Thompson through three seasons.

However, like Thompson, it is fair to wonder whether Beal's coach and the offensive system he plays in are holding him back. Beal plays with arguably the best play-making point guard in the league in John Wall, a guy who lives for finding teammates in the corner for 3's, the most efficient shot in the game. Given his incredible 3-point shooting and impressive athleticism, why is Beal's efficiency so mediocre?

Beal has slowly improved his field-goal percentage in each season in the league, but he still sat at just 42.7 percent this season. More worrying, Beal's True Shooting percentage (which takes into account the 3-pointers that Beal is so good at) has risen to just 52.1 percent in 2014-15, below the league average and good for just 172nd among players who qualified for the scoring title this season.

A big part of the problem is, Beal just doesn't take enough 3-pointers. Wizards coach Randy Wittman seems to push the philosophy that any open shot is a good shot, which makes sense on the surface. On shots between 10 feet from the rim and the 3-point line, Beal shoots 46.9 percent on 2-point attempts when a defender is further than 4 feet away from him per SportsVU tracking data from Stats.NBA.com, compared to his overall mark of 42.7 percent.

However, basic math proves how fallacious this type of reasoning is. Beal scores .938 points per shot on those open, long 2-pointers, compared to 1.22 per shot on all 3-pointers, no matter how closely he is guarded. In fact, even when a defender is within 2-4 feet (defined as a tight contest), he averages 1.00 points per shot over the last two seasons. Beal is such a dead-eye 3-point shooter that he is better off taking one with a defender inside his jersey than stepping inside the line for an open 20-footer.

It's not hard to see why Wittman's offensive strategy limits his team's offensive upside in general and Beal's specifically. The following stat is illustrative:

Beal is one of the best 3-point shooters in the league, but puts that skill to use less than nearly every other elite shooter. He has taken more shots from 16 feet to the 3-point line than from 3-point range, and he often just dribbles into those attempts in search of an "open" shot.

Maybe it isn't all on Wittman, of course. Maybe Beal just feels more comfortable dribbling into those 20-footers against a closeout rather than side-stepping into a 3-pointer or attacking further into the lane and getting to the rim or the free-throw line. He is still young enough to develop that part of his game further, and we should expect more growth as he nears his prime. We saw Beal attack the rim much more often last postseason, posting a .277 free-throw rate that dwarfs his .191 career rate, but this needs to become a bigger part of his game. 

And, of course, Beal's personal shot chart looks an awful lot like the Wizards' overall. The Wizards were fourth in the league in mid-range attempts per game, and 27th in 3-point attempts per game; this despite ranking ninth in 3-point percentage overall. If Wittman isn't to blame for Beal's shot selection skewing so heavily away from efficient shots, then it's an awfully strange coincidence.

Beal is going to make a big jump at some point. Given his raw ability and what he has already accomplished before the age of 22, there's no doubt he has another level or two to hit. The question moving into 2015-16 is, can he make that leap with Wittman whispering into his ears about the awe-inspiring majesty of a swished 20-footer?

After the disappointing 2014-15 campaign he turned in, I have trouble buying in on Beal as a breakout candidate while he plays in this offense.