NBA Playoff Picture: Scenarios headed into the final night of the regular season
Boston or Cleveland will earn the East's top seed; three teams are contending for the last two spots
By
Matt Moore
•
6 min read
The NBA playoffs begin in a few days. The races are tightening, the seeds are being sorted out, the picture is slowly becoming clear. With that, here's a look at the current playoff picture, and what to know about each team that's in, or in the running for a spot.
Some quick notes:
- Golden State locked the No. 1 seed and home court throughout the playoffs. Most of the West is locked.
- The following series are locked in the Western Conference: (2) Spurs vs. (7) Grizzlies, (3) Rockets vs. (6) Thunder, (4/5) Jazz vs. (5/4) Clippers (home court TBD), (1) Golden State vs. (8) Portland.
- The following series are locked in the Eastern Conference: (3) Raptors vs. (6) Bucks, (4) Wizards vs. (5) Hawks.
- The Clippers and Jazz won Monday, so home court will go down to Wednesday night. A Clippers win or Jazz loss would secure home court for L.A.
- The Raptors and Wizards are locked as the Nos. 3 and 4 in the Eastern Conference.
- The Cavaliers, in profoundly silly style, lost twice to Atlanta over the weekend and after resting players vs. Miami, now are one game back of the No. 1 seed.
- Boston controls its destiny for the top seed. Win, and the Celtics have home court throughout the East. They also get the first seed with a Cavs loss.
- The Eastern Conference ... is where things go nuts.
Eastern Conference scenarios
No. 1 vs. No. 2 seed
- If the Cavs lose: The Celtics are the first seed.
- If the Cavs win and Boston wins: The Celtics are the first seed.
- If the Cavs win and Boston loses: The Cavs are the first seed.
No. 3 seed goes to the Raptors (locked)
No. 4 seed goes to the Wizards (locked).
No. 5 seed goes to the Hawks (locked)
No. 6 seed goes to the Bucks (locked).
Nos. 7 and 8
The Pacers can finish seventh, eighth or out entirely. Now, if the Pacers lose, things go bonkers. The Heat and Bulls both have tiebreakers, and both win three-way ties. Here are the scenarios:
- If Pacers win, Bulls win, Heat win, Pacers 7, Bulls 8, Heat out.
- If Pacers win, Bulls win, Heat lose, Pacers 7, Bulls 8, Heat out.
- If Pacers win, Bulls lose, Heat lose, Pacers 7, Bulls 8, Heat out
- If Pacers win, Bulls lose, Heat win, Pacers 7, Heat 8, Bulls out.
- If Pacers lose, Bulls win, Heat win, Bulls 7, Heat 8, Pacers out.
- If Pacers lose, Bulls lose, Heat win, Heat 7, Pacers 8, Bulls out.
- If Pacers lose, Bulls win, Heat lose, It's Bulls 7, Pacers 8, Heat out.
- if Pacers lose, Bulls lose, Heat lose, it's Pacers 7, Bulls 8, Heat out.
There's only one scenario where Indiana is out, but it's a plausible one.
If you're the Heat, you want the Pacers to lose no matter what. After that you want the Bulls to lose, too. And of course, you have to beat Washington.
Simple, right?
If the playoffs started today ...
Seeding analysis and magic numbers
Curious as to why tiebreakers matter so much? The Nos. 3-6 seeds in the Western Conference were decided by a tiebreaker in 2015. The same thing happened in the Eastern Conference in 2016. Teams wind up clumping together at the end. Tiebreakers matter.
Note: "Magic numbers" refers to combination of wins and losses by the competing team. Example: If the Cavaliers have a magic number of seven for a playoff spot, that means they need a combination of seven wins and losses by Miami (the team currently out of the playoffs with the fewest losses). "Tragic numbers" are the combination of a team's losses and competitor's wins which would eliminate a team from a position.
Western Conference
The contenders
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched the Pacific Division, the No. 1 seed in the West and home court throughout the NBA playoffs.
- Remaining games: One: LAL
- Lead/trail and tiebreakers: Locked as the No. 1 seed, will play Portland first round.
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched a top-two seed, locked as the second seed.
- Remaining games: One: @UTA
- Lead/trail and tiebreakers: Locked as the No. 2 seed.
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched home court in the first round and the third seed.
- Remaining games: One: MIN
- Lead/trail and tiebreakers: Locked as the No. 3 seed.
The dangerous second tier
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched a playoff spot and a top-five seed. Magic number for the fourth seed is one.
- Remaining games: One: SAC
- Lead/trails and tiebreakers: Tied with Jazz, and own the tiebreaker. Can finish no worse than fifth, control destiny for fourth seed and home court. Need win vs. Sacramento or Utah loss to San Antonio on Wednesday to secure home court.
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched a playoff spot and a top-six seed. Locked at sixth, will face Rockets first round.
- Remaining games: One: DEN
- Lead/trail and tiebreakers: Locked as the sixth seed.
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched a playoff spot, the Northwest Division, and no worse than fifth. Play for home court Wednesday.
- Remaining games: One: SA
- Lead/trail and tiebreakers: Tied with Clippers, Clippers have the tiebreaker. Cannot secure higher than fourth seed. Do not control destiny for the fourth seed and home court. Need a Clippers loss to Sacramento and a win vs. San Antonio for home court.
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched the seventh seed. Will face San Antonio in the first round.
- Remaining games: One: DAL
- Lead/trail and tiebreakers: Locked at No. 7. Locked vs. Spurs first round.
Portland winds up the best of the mess
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched the eighth seed.
- Remaining games: One: NO
- Leads/trails and tiebreaker: Clinched the eighth seed, will face Golden State in the first round.
Eastern Conference
The champs continue to fade
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched a playoff spot, the Atlantic Division, a top-two seed and home court in the first two rounds.
- Remaining games: One: MIL
- Owns tiebreaker: Lead Cavs by one game, Cavs have the tiebreaker. Need a win Wednesday vs. Milwaukee or Cavs loss to Toronto to secure the No. 1 seed.
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched playoff spot, Central Division, a top-two seed and home court in the first two rounds.
- Remaining games: One: TOR
- Trails/leads and tiebreakers: Trail Celtics by one game, have the tiebreaker. Need a win vs. Toronto and a Celtics loss Wednesday for the No. 1 seed.
Eastern heirs
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched a playoff spot and home court in the first round. Locked as the third seed.
- Remaining games: One: @CLE
- Trails/leads and tiebreakers: Locked as the third seed.
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched a playoff spot, the Southeast Division and a top-four seed. Locked as the fourth seed.
- Remaining games: One: @MIA
- Trails/leads and tiebreakers: Locked as the fourth seed.
The rest of the mess
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched a playoff spot and the fifth seed.
- Remaining games: One: @IND
- Trails/leads and tiebreakers: Locked as the fifth seed.
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched a playoff spot and the sixth seed.
- Remaining games: One: @BOS
- Trails/leads and tiebreakers: Locked as the sixth seed.
- Clinched/magic number: Magic number is one.
- Remaining games: One: ATL
- Trails/leads and tiebreakers: Lead Bulls and Heat by a game, Bulls and Heat have the tiebreaker.
- Clinched/magic number: Magic number is one for a playoff spot.
- Remaining games: One: BKN
- Trails/leads and tiebreakers: Trail Pacers by a game, tied with Heat, hold tiebreaker over both. Can only miss playoffs if Heat win and Bulls lose.
- Clinched/magic number: Tragic number is one.
- Remaining games: One: WAS
- Trails/leads and tiebreakers: Trail Pacers by a game, have tiebreaker. Trail Chicago by a game, Bulls have tiebreaker. Need a win and a loss by either Indiana or Chicago to secure playoff spot.
