NFL Week 4 Picks: Patriots bounce Bills in a big way, four dogs to win outright

The Patriots are going to hammer the Bills and four underdogs to win outright

Before Week 3 started, I gave you a list of five underdogs who could pull off straight-up wins. And not only did my 4-1 streak from Week 2 carry over, but it nearly got better, were it not for two teams messing themselves late. If the Chargers and Jaguars win their respective games -- and they should have -- we're sitting at 5-0 on the week.

A 3-2 mark will work thanks to the Broncos, Rams and Falcons all easily covering and winning outright. The Jags and Bolts seriously both should've won. With 2:05 left in the game, San Diego had a win probability of 84.69 percent. And with 3:27 left in the game against the Ravens, Jacksonville had an 81.07 percent chance to win.

Whatever. It was a rough week for anyone picking games (see our full expert picks here). Not gonna be bitter, just gonna get better.

But we're not gonna change things up too much. Instead, we're going to go right back at some dogs. Except one anyway ...

Patriots -6 vs. Bills -- As soon as this line opened at less than a touchdown, I wanted a piece of it. Don't care who's under center, whether it be Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett, Julian Edelman or Bill Belichick. The Pats have 10 days to prepare for a division rival that just spent every ounce of emotional energy for a coach with his back against the wall.

Buccaneers +3 vs. Broncos -- This line smells worse than the Tampa Bay locker room back when Greg Schiano was coaching there. The Buccaneers have been beat up the last two weeks and Denver's been dominating everyone, but is only favored by three points? It sounds illogical to take them just because it's so obvious to take the Broncos, but that's the play here. Big-time game from Jameis Winston coming and a Bucs upset.

Falcons +3.5 vs. Panthers -- Pretty big spread here for a team that just dominated the Saints on Monday night. The Panthers are legit and potentially underrated because of their schedule -- Atlanta can't bring the same heat from the outside pass rush that Minnesota and Denver can. But the Panthers defense hasn't looked like the lock-down unit we saw last year, and Atlanta can still put up points. They'll keep this close late in the dome and potentially upset Carolina.

49ers +3 vs. Cowboys -- Another stinky line. It really stinks when you consider that the 49ers have shown the ability -- not the recent ability, mind you, but the ability -- to stop a run-heavy team and the Cowboys might be missing Dez Bryant due to a hairline fracture to his right knee. The Niners are going to need a sub-standard defense in order to score points and the 'Boys offer just that. 49ers steal a win.

Titans +5 vs. Texans -- At some point maybe I'll stop trusting the Titans. Remember that when they're not winning this week. But also remember that if they're anywhere in the realm of 12 points, there's a pretty good chance Mike Mularkey will take the reins off Marcus Mariota and let him be a normal quarterback. He's been slinging it when he's in the hurry-up offense this year and the Titans defense/Texans offense should let things stay close late in a division game. They might even just win.

Last Week Best Bets: 3-2

Last Week Overall: 8-7-1

Best Bets Season: 8-7

Season Overall: 27-20-1