2020 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Five No. 1 contenders for second base, including Gavin Lux, Cavan Biggio
Bargain second basemen who could become No. 1 at the position for 2021? Here are five candidates.
By
Chris Towers
•
1 min read
In an era when positional scarcity is all but dead, second base still lingers behind the rest of the field, both in terms of elite players and depth. But that doesn't mean it's still a position without potential.
Sure, you won't get 40-homer potential from most second basemen, but where the position is lacking in raw power, you can find other skills that are scarcer in today's game, namely average and speed. That's largely the focus of this column for second base. Where other positions are mostly about finding the next 40-homer studs, second base is about finding players who can force their way into the elite tier following the Jose Altuve model.
Of course, none of these guys are going to be Altuve. But each brings the potential for a plus bat and speed, and in a 2020 context, that might be even more valuable. Here are five players being drafted outside of the top-12 at second-base with the potential to be elite options in 2020:
No. 1 Contenders: 2B
If you want to know what the upside looks like for Biggio, it's something like the good Matt Carpenter seasons, except with stolen bases. Biggio's batted-ball profile looks awfully similar to Carpenter's massive 2018 season, but he was probably a bit too selective for his own good as a rookie. There's a fine line between patient and passive, and if Biggio figures out when to pick his spots, his game will take off. Add in the stolen base potential (19 in 143 games with just one caught stealing between Triple-A and the majors), and you're talking about a potential top-36 pick in any format.
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There are two questions we need answered with Lux: Is he good enough to play every day; and will the Dodgers let him play every day if he is? On the first question, it comes down to whether Lux can hit lefties. He did have an .840 OPS against lefties in the minors last season, which seems like a promising sign, but that came with a .417 BABIP and 31.8% strikeout rate, so it's hard to say whether he actually improved — he did finally hit for some power against them, so that might be the tradeoff he had to make. The larger sample size tells a far less promising story: He has hit .226/.292/.328 against lefties over the past three seasons. If, however, last season was the start of him figuring things out against lefties, then it'll be about him forcing the Dodgers' hand on an everyday role. He'll play pretty regularly from the jump, but if he lives up to the potential he showed in the minors, especially last season, you've got a possible top-five option at the shallowest non-catcher position.
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Hampson has to fight for playing time in a crowded Rockies lineup, so the first thing he has to do is earn an everyday job. Proving that last September — when he was 28 of 88 with five homers and nine steals — was closer to his true talent level than what came before would go a long way. Hampson isn't going to hit 40 homers, of course, but he needs to show he can be at least an average hitter, if not better. The minor-league track record — he's a career .301/.360/.449 hitter at Triple-A -- shows it's not out of the question. If he does that and earns a regular role, the potential here is obvious -- he averaged .311-115-10-74-59 per-150 games in the minors. Even if you're skeptical about the bat, Coors Field goes a long way in covering up for deficiencies. If Hampson plays every day, a "poor man's Trea Turner" outcome isn't out of the question.
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Senzel was certainly a disappointment to begin his career, though if a "disappointing" rookie season sees you hit 12 homers and steal 14 bases in 414 plate appearances, that tells you what kind of potential we're talking about here. Senzel is playing in spring ball, a good sign that he is recovered from the torn labrum in his right shoulder, so now it's a question of how long it will take him get back to full strength. If he does this season, you're looking at a career .312/.388/.508 hitter in the minors who also ranked in the 96th percentile in sprint speed in the majors last season. Given how much of a premium speed is, that kind of profile looks awfully enticing this days.
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There's a theme here, and it's speed. Second base doesn't necessarily have the big bats the other positions do, but there's a lot of potential for guys to make up the difference with their legs. Madrigal brings plenty of speed to the table, coming off 35 steals in just 110 games in his first full season of professional ball, but what really makes him stand out is his contact ability. Madrigal struck out just 16 times last season, just 2.8% of the time; no player has bested that in the majors since 1995. It's fair to ask if he has enough pop to thrive in the majors, but with his contact skills and speed, it might be hard for him to not hit .300. If he gets the second base job in spring training, Madrigal needs to be on your draft board.
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So which sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which undervalued first baseman can help you win a championship? Visit SportsLine now to get rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Kenta Maeda's huge breakout last season, and find out.
