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2017-18 NBA Over/Unders: Vegas odds and SportsLine analysis
The over/under odds for the upcoming NBA season are out, so let's take a look at what Vegas thinks about the upcoming season for each team, along with SportsLine's projections for each club. All odds are courtesy of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.
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Atlanta Hawks
SportsLine projection: 32.4
Vegas over/under: 25.5
Analysis: The Hawks' best player is Dennis Schroder. That's a bad start, but occurs when a club clears long-term contracts from the books. It should be noted that Mike Budenholzer is still one heck of a coach, and their young guys were quietly pretty good last season. Clearing 26 wins seems like a good approach here.
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Boston Celtics
SportsLine projection: 54.8
Vegas over/under: 54.5
Analysis: This line dropped two wins in a week from 56.5. Not only did SportsLine project them under by 1.7 wins, but the Celtics return only four players -- not starters, but players -- from last season's No.1 seed that finished with only 53 wins. They have new players to integrate, younger role players and more questions defensively. The hype is stronger than the facts regarding this team. Even with SportsLine projecting them just over, the under seems way more likely.
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Brooklyn Nets
SportsLine projection: 20.9
Vegas over/under: 27.5
Analysis: (Insert the sound of hysterical laughing) Look, Kenny Atkinson is a good coach. They've done interesting things with the roster. But their best player is D'Angelo Russell, whose NBA career is spotty at best. Previously, their best player was Brook Lopez, who they dealt for Russell. And the rest of the roster is a mish-mash of borderline NBA talents and veterans who will drag the team down. Easy under, no matter what you hear about the Celtics trading the first-round pick they got from Brooklyn.
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Charlotte Hornets
SportsLine projection: 42.0
Vegas over/under: 42.5
Analysis: Well, that's pretty tight. Part of evaluating this over/under should be whether you think they'll be the team to create separation in a bad conference. Some team figures to be better than expected. The Hornets were a league-worst 0-9 in games decided by three or fewer points last season. There are reasons for concern, but they have legitimate talent which is more than a lot of Eastern Conference teams. The over seems like a decent gamble, but the data says stay away.
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Chicago Bulls
Sportsline projection: 27.9
Vegas over/under: 21.5
Analysis: If Zach LaVine isn't back to start the season ... and Dwyane Wade gets bought out (which is likely) ... who is the best player on opening night? Is it Robin Lopez? Lauri Markkanen? Benny the Bull? This team is going to be horrendous and will tank its face off. SportsLine undoubtedly is projecting Wade still on roster. At 21.5, the under is a limbo-bar-near-the-floor mark to navigate, but with likely trades of the other vets, it still seems like a smarter go. Mostly, this is a stay-away.
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Cleveland Cavaliers
SportsLine projection: 54.7
Vegas over/under: 53.5
Analysis: OK, on one hand, the still have LeBron James and still won games the past two seasons when now-departed Kyrie Irving did not play. Plus, they added Jae Crowder (and Derrick Rose, if we must). On the other hand, James has so many miles on him, and his regular-season effort has slid more each season, which matches the Cavs' ethos: Be ready for the playoffs, with less emphasis on the regular season. Should that continue without their new starting point guard -- Isaiah Thomas -- for an unknown amount of time, it's unlikely they'll hit the over.
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Dallas Mavericks
SportsLine projection: 37.8
Vegas over/under: 35.5
Analysis: This is a monster stay-away. The margin between SportsLine and the over/under is too tight and one extended outage of Dirk Nowitzki could sink it. Meanwhile, they'll have a rookie point guard (Dennis Smith Jr.) playing heavy minutes. And who knows what happens with Nerlens Noel after he took the qualifying offer? Rick Carlisle is great, and there's talent on the roster, but a lot of questions. Too dangerous to trust either way.
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Denver Nuggets
SportsLine projection: 41.5
Vegas over/under: 45.5
Analysis: If the offense clicks like last season, if youngsters like Jamal Murray and Gary Harris continue to make strides, if Paul Millsap is healthy and fits in, if the defense is even a little better ... then 45.5 is easily doable. But a disruption to any of those could create a tailspin, and Denver has been prone to big swings under Michael Malone. There's a lot of talent, but they play in the tough West, so reaching 45.5 -- especially considering that SportsLine data -- will be difficult.
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Detroit Pistons
SportsLine projection: 43.5
Vegas Over/Under: 38.5
Analysis: If their team chemistry weren't a dumpster fire, the over would seem smart. If Reggie Jackson has a bounce-back season, if Andre Drummond really commits defensively, plus the addition of Avery Bradley as an upgrade over Marcus Morris, in addition to what Langston Galloway and Luke Kennard can provide, that may be enough. More than anything, the Pistons -- as a team with an actual NBA-caliber roster -- should be able to feast enough on the East. But can they avoid internal issues to keep it together and hit a very reasonable over?
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Golden State Warriors
SportsLine projection: 66.2
Vegas over/under: 67.5
Analysis: Literally any other team in NBA history you would blanch at that over and run screaming from it, even the Bulls after 1996. No team with this kind of championship pedigree cares about the regular season. But the Warriors had all sorts of adjustment troubles to start last season, and had some injury issues... and still won 67. Barring significant injuries, they can hit 70 wins without breaking a sweat. The over seems easy.
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Houston Rockets
SportsLine projection: 54.8
Vegas over/under: 55.5
Analysis: Despite their upgrades -- notably Chris Paul -- they return only six rotation players, though they only played a nine-man rotation in the playoffs. Houston added Paul, but also bumped up their defense with P.J. Tucker and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. They get another season in Mike D'Antoni's system. But to clear the over they need to win one more game than last season's total (55). As the SportsLine projection shows, this one is too close for comfort.
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Indiana Pacers
SportsLine projection: 30.5
Vegas over/under: 31.5
Analysis: This feels ... ambitious. A 21-year-old Myles Turner is their best player, and while they have a largely veteran roster, it's mostly leftovers from last season's mediocre team. The Pacers, under owner Herb Simon, have resisted tanking at every turn, but if this team is as bad as expected by mid-season, it's a good bet whatever talent they have left will start missing games. The under feels safe.
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Los Angeles Clippers
SportsLine projection: 43.3
Vegas over/under: 44.5
Analysis: Stay. Away. Blake Griffin's injury history is the next installment in the "Saw" franchise. Danilo Gallinari has missed at least 19 games every season since suffering an ACL tear in 2013. And the rest of their roster is new and/or less than it has been. But the under's not safe, because if healthy, they have more established talent between Griffin and DeAndre Jordan along with the pieces acquired in the Chris Paul trade to be a team well above .500. Avoid this one like the plague.
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Los Angeles Lakers
SportsLine projection: 35.0
Vegas over/under: 32.5
Analysis: Optimism abounds. This team had a phenomenal, over-their-realistic-ceiling start last November, and still finished with 26 wins. Their roster features seven (or so) rotation players with less than three years of experience. Lonzo Ball looks like a tremendous player whose impact will be felt beyond his production. But they also lost D'Angelo Russell to make room for him, and they play in the Western Conference. SportsLine believes in the over, but the under is probably the better play.
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Memphis Grizzlies
SportsLine projection: 38.9
Vegas over/under: 37.5
Analysis: JaMychal Green is a huge question mark, as he continues to drift in free agency. Their offseason, should they lose him, will not inspire confidence. But Memphis still has two All-Star caliber players -- Marc Gasol and Mike Conley -- who are coming off tremendous seasons. The Grizzlies have gone under in three of the past five seasons, yet two of those were by a half-game and one was the 2015-16 season in which they suffered a historic injury stretch. This is a six-game drop for a team that hasn't missed the playoffs in seven seasons. Seems like the models may represent a worse team than the one that shows up.
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Miami Heat
SportsLine projection: 40.1
Vegas under/over: 43.5
Analysis: Which team do you believe in? The team that went an incredible 17-3 from Jan. 15-March 1? Or the team that went 24-38 the rest of the way? Does internal improvement, the return of Justise Winslow, the addition of Kelly Olynyk, and a healthy Dion Waiters signal a slight boost to their total? If you believe the team that won all those was held back only by injuries, this is an easy over -- especially in the East. But if you think they had a good stretch before turning back into a pumpkin, the under sounds sweet.
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Milwaukee Bucks
SportsLine projection: 41.2
Vegas over/under: 47.5
Analysis: The Bucks have one of the largest differences between their line and the SportsLine projection in the East. They return all the components of a team that won 42 games last season, get Jabari Parker back at some point, and have several key should show growth. However, young teams like this rarely win close to 50 games. It's not that they can't, but 48 or more wins seems high. Somewhere between SportsLine's projection and the over (so still under) seems likely.
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Minnesota Timberwolves
SportsLine projection: 46.1
Vegas over/under: 48.5
Analysis: Whoa, Pete! The Wolves need an 18-win improvement season over season to hit the over. You can talk yourself into it. They didn't play to their talent level last season, they're another year older with another year in Tom Thibodeau's system. And, oh, yeah, they added Jimmy Butler and some good veterans. But there were no injuries to speak of last season, and an 18-game jump is beyond a reasonable leap of faith. SportsLine agrees: Take the under.
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New Orleans Pelicans
SportsLine projection: 42.7
Vegas over/under: 39.5
Analysis: The over/under is so low for a team with two superstars -- Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins -- that it has to give you pause. It takes an absolutely dreadful cast to believe those two and Jrue Holiday can't crack .500 but that's really how bad it is. Throw in the possibility of it not working and the Pelicans trading Cousins amid turmoil, and your best best bet is the under.
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New York Knicks
SportsLine projection: 36.3
Vegas over/under: 30.5
Analysis: This feels like a trap. It's the Knicks, so the line's always inflated ... which says something about 30.5 wins. The Knicks won 31 last season, so the weak East competition, the addition of Michael Beasley, the loss of Derrick Rose and the development of Kristaps Porzingis is good for running in place no matter what happens with Carmelo Anthony. Also possible: the Knicks could tank and/or maneuver for free agency. At a number this low, staying away likely is in order.
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Oklahoma City Thunder
SportsLine projection: 46.9
Vegas over/under: 51.5
Analysis: That's tasty. The Thunder overachieved last season, going 12-7 in games decided by three points or less. The Thunder, based on their performance offensively and defensively, were closer to a 43-win team (OKC went 47-35) based on models. With Paul George, SportsLine's projection sounds about right. There's above-average risk here, but the under is a healthy gamble.
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Orlando Magic
SportsLine projection: 25.9
Vegas over/under: 33.5
Analysis: An over/under this high is a bit stunning ... and yet, the over looks good, even with SportsLine's distaste for that idea. SportsLine is factoring past production from a season where the Magic hung in the playoff race until January before melting down, trading Serge Ibaka and engaging in tank mode. Internal improvement, good coaching from Frank Vogel and the addition of a talented rookie in Jonathan Isaacs could tilt this team upward. There's risk of a major tank job.
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Philadelphia 76ers
SportsLine projection: 40.6
Vegas over/under: 41.5
Analysis: The Sixers will be hyped beyond belief. The conference is a train wreck, they have three top-three picks expected to be ready for the opener and they added J.J. Redick. But keep in mind that even after a 10-5 January before Embiid went down, they were 18-29 overall when his season ended. Projections are responding to how good they were when Embiid played, but there's no way to know if he'll stay healthy or if he'll play in back-to-back games. Consider how bad young teams always are, and this team may make the playoffs ... but it likely will do so with a sub-.500 record.
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Phoenix Suns
SportsLine projection: 29.5
Vegas over/under: 29.5
Analysis: Nope. Big bottle of nope on this one. The Suns gained a rookie in Josh Jackson, and that's it. Is that, plus internal improvement, good for a five-win jump? The Suns are also the worst team in an incredibly stacked conference. Is the worst team in the West going to finish within range of 30 wins, especially with incentive to tank? Stay away.
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Portland Trail Blazers
SportsLine projection: 39
Vegas over/under: 42.5
Analysis: Which team you believe in? The Blazers who were woeful most of the season, and a bottom-five defense? Or the club that came on late thanks to "Nurkic Fever." Portland didn't add anyone of consequence and lost Allen Crabbe. If you buy Nurkic, take the over. If you're skeptical of sample size (and aware of how deceptive Nurkic's numbers actually were during that stint), ride the under, especially at 42.5 in a brutal conference.
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Sacramento Kings
SportsLine projection: 34.9
Vegas over/under: 28.5
Analysis: Wait ... is it possible this over is a good bet? They added great veterans like George Hill, Vince Carter and Zach Randolph. They've got a really good young core with Buddy Hield, De'Aaron Fox, Willie Cauley-Stein and Skal Labissiere. Throw in good coaching from Dave Joerger and the weight of DeMarcus Cousins' oversized personality being lifted, and this feels like a season Kings fans may have cause for excitement, and one where 30 wins seems attainable.
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San Antonio Spurs
SportsLine projection: 53.4
Vegas over/under: 54.5
Analysis: If this were any other team .... hammer the under. The Spurs are short on star power, and they fall apart without Kawhi Leonard. They lost Jonathon Simmons and Dewayne Dedmon over the summer without suitable replacements, and even Gregg Popovich hinted last season that the Spurs' record may have been deceptive. But you're just never going to feel comfortable betting against the Spurs, and they've hit their over in four of the past five seasons, despite that number being around 55 wins every season.
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Toronto Raptors
SportsLine projection: 48.9
Vegas over/under: 48.5
Analysis: Definitely a stay-away. The Raptors likely would have won somewhere around 55 games last season and secured the 1-seed had it not been for a late-season injury to Kyle Lowry. They are still a terrible postseason team, but this team racks up wins in the regular season, and another year with Serge Ibaka should help their defense. They lost P.J. Tucker, but they have youngsters ready to fill gaps. It's too close to call for a team that's been consistent the past four seasons.
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Utah Jazz
SportsLine projection: 36.2
Vegas over/under: 40.5
Analysis: Utah lost two of its three best players in Gordon Hayward and George Hill, but still have Rudy Gobert and added Ricky Rubio. Their young guys have shown potential, and .500 seems attainable. But SportsLine's skepticism is convincing, and in a tough Western Conference, the safe money is on the under.
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Washington Wizards
SportsLine projection: 44.5
Vegas over/under: 48.5
Analysis: SportsLine has no faith in the Wizards, and it makes sense. Washington lost Bojan Bogdanovic for nothing, and can only count on internal improvement. But they do have continuity, playing a third season with the same core, health throughout for the first time, a second year under Scott Brooks -- and the Wizards seemed to find themselves last season. Also bear in mind that they play in a weak division in a bad conference. Take the over.
Credit: USATSI
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