Grin and bear it (pun intended) situation here, with a Lions team that was heavily overmatched by the Bears two weeks ago. However, Matthew Stafford has a pretty good history on Thanksgiving, even against tough defenses, and the Mitchell Trubisky injury situation, which might end up with Chase Daniel starting for Chicago has me leaning Detroit. Plus, the Bears played on Sunday night and now have to play Thursday at 12:30 p.m. ET. That's an incredibly short turnaround.
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Redskins (+7.5) at Cowboys
There seems to be an assumption the Cowboys, coming off a pair of road wins, will beat the Redskins, coming off a home loss that saw their starting quarterback go down for the season. I'm not sure Colt McCoy can't flip that narrative a little bit: this is the Redskins Super Bowl. Win in Dallas on Thanksgiving and they could effectively clinch the division thanks to holding a sweep over the Cowboys. I think they're gonna try to turn this into a clunker on purpose and make a few big plays to flip the field before sneaking out with a low-scoring win. Neither team is inclined to blow someone out.
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Saints (-13) vs. Falcons
OK OK OK OK OK FINE. I GIVE UP. I'll stop picking against the Saints. Drew Brees and Sean Payton are on a tour of absolute destruction right now and there's no reason to think the Falcons can a) slow them down, b) stay within 14 points of the Saints or c) magically convince them to take it easy on their hated rival. Payton wants Brees to win the MVP and he's going to let him keep slinging it.
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Patriots (-9.5) at Jets
This is a pretty huge line and a pretty terrifying number, but if you look at the trends surrounding Bill Belichick and this situation, it's hard to take the Jets. Since 2003, the Patriots are an absurd 39-14 against the spread following a loss and they are 7-1 against the spread as a field goal or more ROAD FAVORITE following the bye since Belichick arrived. They don't have a great history in the last five years against the spread when playing the Jets, but the Patriots have covered two of the last three.
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Ravens (-10.5) vs. Raiders
The Ravens just used a fancy new offense centered around Lamar Jackson to shred Marvin Lewis' defense and now the Ravens are going up against the Raiders, who are coached by one of Lewis' mentees in Paul Guenther. This is a huge number, but this is the type of game the Ravens win 21-0 while snuffing out an inferior opponent and making us think they might be a legitimate contender again.
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Eagles (-6) vs. Giants
Might love this line considering the respect the Giants are getting after winning back-to-back games against the 49ers and the Buccaneers. Eli Manning is back! The Giants should keep him for 2019! These are real things people are thinking, right up until Fletcher Cox spends roughly two hours getting up in his kitchen and reminding people that the Eagles can beat up on bad teams.
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49ers (+3) at Buccaneers
I have serious misgivings about taking a three-point road dog traveling from the west coast for an early game in Tampa. But I have even more misgivings about backing a Buccaneers team that has no clue how long their starting quarterback will actually be their starting quarterback before being replaced by the backup quarterback before their backup quarterback is replaced by their original starting quarterback. Nick Mullens could end up having a pretty nice game against this defense.
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Browns (+3) at Bengals
Another fairly short road favorite who I think can win a game outright. Baker Mayfield is starting to really round into form for Cleveland and it's probably not a coincidence that it happened after Hue Jackson was sent packing by the Browns. SPEAKING OF HUE ... he works for the Bengals now. Which means this is a spite/revenge game of sorts for Mayfield -- and Baker strikes me as the type of dude who will get geared up to beat someone out of spite (I mean that as a compliment). Hue might have been good at slowing down Mayfield as his coach, but I don't think he'll help against him.
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Panthers (-3) vs. Seahawks
Do these teams play in Charlotte every single year? Sure feels like that. The biggest concern I've got here is Cam Newton and whether or not he suffered any kind of injury against Detroit during last week's game; that might change my pick. But the Panthers are very undervalued here, even against a good Seahawks team, and in a must-win spot with the nice bonus of playing at home for the first time in a few weeks. The Panthers are substantially better in Carolina than on the road and so is Cam.
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Bills (+3) vs. Jaguars
Josh Allen is returning as the starting quarterback of the Bills and he's got something to prove with Jalen Ramsey -- who drive-by slandered him this offseason for no real reason -- and the Jaguars coming to town. Allen and the Bills aren't good but neither are the Jaguars. And a team like Jacksonville that just had their season blown up at the last second on a brutal late beat against the Steelers isn't going to come in motivated. I'll take the home dog coming off a bye here.
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Cardinals (+12) at Chargers
Gonna be another "hold your bottom" game with the Cardinals catching a ton of points, but if you look at the Chargers, they really haven't blown out a bunch of teams, even bad ones. They need to bounce back from an ugly loss to the Raiders, but the Cardinals won't quit trying like other teams, thanks in large part to David Johnson wanting to get some stats under his belt after a bad start and Arizona trying to develop Josh Rosen. I like the backdoor chance here even if it's getting ugly early.
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Colts (-9) vs. Dolphins
Big, big number here, but the Colts are worthy of being large favorites because of how they're handling teams lately. Andrew Luck hasn't been sacked in five games. If you watched the Colts circa 2011-2013 it's unreal to imagine that. He's getting the ball out quick and should be able to handle this Dolphins defense. Miami is one of the worst teams in the NFL in terms of net yards per play on the road.
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Broncos (+3) vs. Steelers
I would assume the Steelers are going to be a very popular road favorite after they beat the Jaguars last week. But they didn't play so well on the road last week and they generally aren't a great traveling team. Additionally, Pittsburgh is due to lose a random stinker, something they tend to do every week. The Broncos are a much better team at home and I think they can steal this one.
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Packers (+3.5) at Vikings
This number is concerning because it's practically begging you to take the Packers, but I just think there's too much at stake for Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay for them not to show up in an enormous way. The Packers have about two weeks to get things going on offense if they want to try and make any kind of playoff run. Give me Rodgers and the points in prime time.
