Everyone assumes that the Patriots are good after a loss. Anecdotally it just adds up. But I'm not sure everyone is really aware how good they are: since 2001, when Tom Brady took over, the Patriots are a ridiculous 13-2 against the spread on the road following a loss at home. Take out Matt Cassel's 2008 season and Brady is 11-1 ATS on the road after an L. Angry Brady is scary Brady.
The Pick: Patriots -5.5
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Colts (-1.5) vs. 49ers
This one feels TOO obvious, but maybe the line is lower because of the expected reaction to the score results from these two teams in Week 4? The Colts hung tight with the Seahawks until the dam broke and the Seahawks defense took over. The 49ers hung tight with the Cardinals and took them to overtime. They're both bad teams. Give me the one at home.
The Pick: Colts -1.5
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Browns (PK) vs. Jets
This disaster of a game has become kind of fascinating, with the Jets winning their last two games (and covering, obviously) and the Browns failing to cover as a road favorite a few weeks ago before badly losing at home to the Bengals this past week. The Browns are terrible and I'm talking myself into taking them again. Everyone will be on the Jets as a road favorite and that's crazypants.
The Pick: Browns PK
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Steelers (-8.5) vs. Jaguars
The Jaguars defense is good and has Jalen Ramsey and if Ben Roethlisberger has to forcefeed Antonio Brown in order to make the receiver happy, things could go sideways. The Steelers showed up in a dominant fashion against the Ravens, though, and should be able to move the ball against Jacksonville in a similar fashion. They are a much better team at home.
The Pick: Steelers -8.5
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Ravens (+1) at Raiders
The Baltimore Ravens were throughly humiliated by the Steelers in Week 4, at home, in a massive division rivalry game. They need a win this week and they got lucky, because EJ Manuel is going to to be on the other side of the field. Terrell Suggs probably won't wear a Bane mask this week, and traveling across the country is a concern just two weeks after returning from London. Still, the Manuel factor is too much here.
The Pick: Ravens +1
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Packers (+2) at Cowboys
This is a fun matchup because neither team's defense is particularly great at stopping the other team's strength. The Packers aren't fantastic against the run on defense and Ezekiel Elliott has looked good the last two weeks. But the Cowboys can't stop anyone via the pass with their banged-up secondary and Aaron Rodgers has been superb lately. He finds Jordy Nelson for multiple scores and the Packers win.
The Pick: Packers +2
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Panthers (+3) at Lions
Pretty mad at myself for not getting on board the Panthers as a best bet last week when they were dogs in New England. They're slightly smaller dogs here and the Lions defense prevents a much bigger challenge for Cam Newton than the Pats do, but Mike Shula should continue to use Newton in the read option, which makes the Panthers dangerous. This is a game they can win and will keep close.
The Pick: Panthers +3
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Chargers (+3.5) at Giants
Wait, no. THIS is the loser bowl. The Jets have two more wins than the Giants and Chargers combined, which is kind of amazing to say out loud. There's also the intrigue of Eli Manning's Giants facing Philip Rivers' Chargers all these years after that 2004 draft-day trade when No. 1 pick Eli said he'd never play for the Chargers. It's not going to be a blowout and the Bolts will be happy to be out of Los Angeles. They'll keep it close.
The Pick: Chargers +3.5
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Rams (-2.5) vs. Seahawks
This line feels a little like Vegas begging everyone to take the Rams, and I don't even care. Right now Los Angeles is just the better team and is more balanced than the Seahawks on both sides of the ball. Aaron Donald should get pressure on Russell Wilson frequently in this game and we will find out a LOT about Jared Goff during this matchup, depending on what he can do against Richard Sherman and Co.
The Pick: Rams -2.5
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Cardinals (+6.5) at Eagles
Philadelphia came out of the gates strong, moving to 3-1 to start the season and looking like one of the two or three best teams in the NFC. The Cardinals are struggling to beat even the lowly 49ers. But Larry Fitzgerald will not let this team go quietly in to the night and he will have a delightful matchup this week. The Cardinals can get deep and keep this game close, especially if Fletcher Cox is out.
The Pick: Cardinals +6.5
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Bills (+3) at Bengals
These are two teams that have surprised -- the Bengals because they've been so bad and the Bills because they've been so competent despite trading away a bunch of high-profile players before the start of the season. Sean McDermott is getting the most out of this team on both sides of the ball and Tyrod Taylor is really playing well without a ton of weapons. The Bills keep it close and maybe upset the Bengals.
The Pick: Bills +3
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Dolphins (+1) vs. Titans
Two weeks running we've been expecting a Jay Ajayi breakout. It hasn't happened. Maybe the travel thing really wore on the Dolphins, who went from Miami during Hurricane Irma to Los Angeles for two weeks, then back to Miami briefly, then to New York, then to London and now back. It's more than 10,000 travel miles. That's a burden. Getting to play at home will be exciting for this team and getting to play against Matt Cassel and/or Brandon Weeden will be even better.
The Pick: Dolphins +1
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Chiefs (-1) at Texans
Everyone is going to take the Chiefs after they managed to pull off a crazy backdoor cover against the Redskins. They're on a short week and they are playing against a dangerous defense with a young quarterback who just went huge against the Titans. Andy Reid will provide a bigger problem for Deshaun Watson and Kareem Hunt will break one off for a big touchdown this week.
The Pick: Chiefs -1
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Bears (+3) vs. Vikings
Don't like backing a rookie quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky when he's going up against a Mike Zimmer-coached defense despite not having very many weapons. It just doesn't bode well for the first-year signal caller as he replaces Mike Glennon. But the Bears have been good at home this year and will not be rolling over for this home game under the spotlight. Could be a kitchen sink situation to make Trubisky look good.
