NCAA Tournament 2017: 16 bold predictions for the Sweet 16

Who will win, how to watch and the best games in the Sweet 16

By Chip Patterson

Mar 21, 2017 at 3:30 pm ET • 7 min read

Download the CBS Sports App today and get instant tournament news and alerts, plus get the latest picks and upsets from SportsLine!

The NCAA Tournament’s first weekend hangover has almost run its course. It’s true, the downhill sprint from Selection Sunday to the First Four and into the first weekend is a bender that every basketball junkie -- and millions of bracket challenge participants -- enjoys to the point of exhaustion.

After collecting our thoughts on last week’s action, reflecting on some of the most brilliant individual performances and looking ahead to the weekend to come, we have some predictions. And since this is the ultra-exclusive Sweet 16, not the “Soft 16”, it’s important to come bold with our predictions. Some are sure to hit and others might fall short but no one will be able to claim we came soft.

1. No more upsets in the East Region

The biggest upsets of the tournament have been in the East, which saw No. 1 Villanova and No. 2 Duke fall in the second round. I don’t think we’ll see another lower seed win in the region, though, with No. 3 Baylor topping No. 4 Florida in the regional final to advance to the Final Four for the first time since 1950.

2. First team to hit 60 points wins in Florida-Wisconsin

The Vegas over/under is at 131.5, and even that total, the lowest of all eight Sweet 16 matchups, feels way too high. I wouldn’t bet it for fear of overtime because these two teams are so close and Wisconsin is clutch as hell, but 60-55 feels like a good final score prediction for the nightcap at Madison Square Garden.

3. Baylor will beat South Carolina by 10-plus

Baylor got tremendous play from its bench in the first two rounds, and we have yet to see Johnathan Motley dominate the way he did at times during the Big 12 season. Duke doesn’t have a big like Motley, and South Carolina won’t have an answer when he gets going. The Bears will win by double digits.

4. West Virginia will beat Gonzaga

No one left in the tournament has more experience in close, competitive games than West Virginia. Of the Mountaineers’ nine losses, three came in overtime and none was by more than nine points. Gonzaga is a much better team in terms of half-court offensive execution, but WVU has the press that can prevent the Bulldogs from ever getting into rhythm. I like Bob Huggins over Mark Few if things get tight, since Gonzaga spent most of its season blowing out WCC foes and the Mountaineers spent much of the season grinding it out in close games.

5. The Big 12 will put three teams in the Elite Eight

The Pac-12 has had arguably the strongest showing the NCAA Tournament but the Big 12 will be the toast of town heading into the weekend with Baylor, West Virginia and Kansas (more on the Jayhawks below) dancing their way into the Elite Eight.

6. Bob Huggins will wear the Mustard Suit at least once in San Jose

So this one is more hopeful than anything else. If you can speak something into existence consider this my attempt to bring Huggs’ golden joy into our living rooms this weekend.

current vibe pic.twitter.com/F70pCcA2lN
— Robby Kalland (@RKalland) March 18, 2017

7. Arizona and Xavier will play an overtime thriller

Sean Miller’s potential path to his first Final Four runs through Xavier, where he used to be the head coach, and Chris Mack, his former assistant. Trevon Bluiett has been on fire so far in the tournament (25 points per game, 53.3 percent 3-point shooting) and is capable of keeping Xavier in this game by himself. I believe Miller will finally break through the Final Four wall, but it won’t come easy.

8. Landen Lucas will be an X-factor for Kansas

Usually considered more of a rebounding and defense contributor, Lucas has been quietly active and efficient in his two tournament outings. The 6-foot-10 senior went 11 for 17 from the field and grabbed 22 rebounds in just 49 minutes of play across the Jayhawks’ two wins. Frank Mason III and Josh Jackson are the superstars deserving of your attention, but Lucas will have plenty of time in the spotlight going up against Purdue and Caleb Swanigan.

Speaking of ...

9. Foul trouble, not poor play, will slow Caleb Swanigan

All of the hype for Kansas-Purdue starts with the player of the year matchup between Frank Mason and Caleb Swanigan. Swanigan has been a double-double machine and will go down as one of the best big men in Big Ten history, but these tournament stages sometimes don’t work out well for the big men, particularly if the refs have a tight whistle early. He has fouled out of four games since Feb. 1, most recently in the overtime loss to Michigan in the Big Ten tournament, but has stayed out of trouble so far in the NCAAs, committing just two personal fouls in 72 minutes.

And it should be noted that this bold prediction is not the wish that Swanigan gets in foul trouble. It’s the acknowledgement that if Biggie is going to be prevented from recording yet another double-double, it’s only going to be because of limited opportunities on the court.

10. Moritz Wagner will cause problems for Oregon, but the Michigan run ends

Sophomore big man Mo Wagner took charge in the second half of Michigan’s thrilling win against Louisville, finishing with a career-high 26 points on 11-for-14 shooting. The 6-11 German scored 20 from 2-point areas, attacking the rim and running two-man sets that destroyed Louisville inside. The absence of Chris Boucher, Oregon’s best shot-blocker, will loom large in this matchup. But while Wagner will get a chance to do work against the Ducks’ front line, I don’t think Michigan’s magical run continues because ...

11. Oregon’s Dillon Brooks will hit a winner

Tyler Dorsey got his turn, and it seems like it has been too long since Brooks has had the ball in his hands with the clock winding down. He has a couple of winners already this season, so he feels due for a big shot here in the Sweet 16.

12. De’Aaron Fox will outplay Lonzo Ball on Friday night

Colleague Gary Parrish has UCLA winning it all, and it’s hard to disagree knowing how quickly Lonzo Ball can change the game, but I think it’s the other future NBA point guard on the floor whose star will shine brightest Friday night in Memphis.

13. After losing to Kentucky, Steve Alford will have his own ‘I don’t give a ---- about Carolina’ moment

Moments after Kansas lost to Syracuse in the 2003 national title game, Bonnie Bernstein asked then-Jayhawks coach Roy Williams about his interest in the North Carolina job.

“The guy in your ear that told you you have to ask that question -- as a journalist I understand but as a human being that’s not very nice. That’s not very sensitive,” Williams said. “I could give a s--- about North Carolina right now. I’ve got 13 kids in that locker room that I love.”

Steve Alford has already addressed and shot down reports of his connection to the Indiana job, but as long as other jobs are getting filled and the Hoosiers gig remains open it will be assumed that Alford -- an Indiana native and two-time All-American guard for the Hoosiers -- is at or near the top of their list.

14. North Carolina will beat Butler by 15-plus

After surviving a scare against Arkansas and charging back with a 12-0 run in the final 3:30 to steal a win in Greenville, South Carolina, the Tar Heels will be in rhythm against a Butler team that can’t match up down low. Every time Roy Williams has been a No. 1 seed with UNC he has made it to the Elite Eight, and I don’t see that changing given the matchup.

15. Roy Williams will challenge Bob Huggins for suit of the weekend

Again, just trying to speak things into existence here, knowing full well that Ol’ Roy’s wardrobe is deep and diverse, particularly come tournament time.