Fantasy Baseball Observations: Kyle Schwarber's World Series performance and other odds and ends
Kyle Schwarber's return has clear Fantasy implications, says Scott White, who also weighs in on Matt Carpenter, Garrett Richards, Ryan Braun and other recent developments.
Didn't see that coming.
The difficulty in ranking players now, during the break in action between the regular season and hot stove season, is that the action hasn't actually stopped. Games are still being played, even if only by a select few players over a short period of time, and occasionally someone will do something in them to change our perception.
Kyle Schwarber is a perfect example.
I'm sure you're aware of the story by now. He was ruled out for the season after tearing the ACL and LCL in his left knee April 7 but recovered quickly enough to make it back, if only as a hitter, for the World Series. And he not only has started at DH but has also been one of the Cubs' more productive hitters, despite not having a true rehab assignment and despite facing some of the same pitchers that shut down the Red Sox and Blue Jays lineups. It's a remarkable achievement that deserves all the attention it's getting.
But lost in the admiration and awe are the Fantasy implications.
Before, we could only guess what the Cubs might do with Schwarber after a long layoff, and my guess would have been a conservative one. They had since introduced Willson Contreras as their catcher of the future. They had since come to appreciate everything Javier Baez has to offer, forcing Ben Zobrist to left field. They had since filled both of the positions we've ever known Schwarber to play, and since he's a defensive liability with a demonstrated weakness against left-handed pitching, I had presumed it would result in something less than everyday at-bats.
But clearly, I underestimated just how much the Cubs value Schwarber's bat. Through those first two games, regardless of the situation or opponent, they stuck with him. Even against the infallible Andrew Miller, he stood in there twice. And this is during their most critical point in the season, in defiance of both medical precedent and common-sense preparation.
That speaks volumes.
Schwarber has yet to play even a full major-league season, so in time, he may learn to hit lefties adequately, just as Anthony Rizzo has. If the Cubs think Schwarber's upside is on the level of a Rizzo or even a Kris Bryant, as some evaluators suggest, then they should absolutely him the priority. And I'm now convinced they will.
I don't know what it means for Contreras or Baez. Maybe it's as simple as Dexter Fowler departing, freeing up center field for Jason Heyward (which was initially the plan, you might remember) and right field for Zobrist. The Cubs could then play Schwarber in left field, Contreras at catcher and Baez at second base, working in Jorge Soler as appropriate. It's one possibility.
But however it shakes out, Schwarber isn't just another movable part. He's a centerpiece and no less than a top-30 outfielder on Draft Day. And if he plays enough catcher to regain eligibility there, that price tag will end up being way too low.
So what else has come to light during this "lull" in activity?
- First, on a related note, manager Joe Maddon has already said Contreras would catch every World Series game except those started by Jon Lester, who will work with personal catcher David Ross, so I'm beginning to think I've ranked Contreras too low as well. I was concerned not only by the return of Schwarber but also by the presence of Miguel Montero, who's under contract for one more year. But apparently the future is now behind the plate, and even less than fully developed, Contreras' bat is probably one of the top five at the position, especially with Wilson Ramos down.
- Matt Carpenter told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch he altered his swing to avoid aggravating his oblique injury after returning from the DL in August, thus confirming every suspicion we Carpenter truthers have had. Let's not forget he had put together a .988 OPS at time he went down in early July, putting him in the thick of the NL MVP race. Between that and his triple eligiblity, he probably shouldn't slip past the fourth round next year (though he may).
- Garrett Richards hit 98 mph in an instructional league game and now seems like a lock to rejoin the Angels in spring training, having avoided Tommy John surgery. The success of his stem cell treatment could be one of those milestone moments in sports medicine, but what it means for him personally is exciting enough. After the year we just witnessed for pitchers, another possible top-25 option would be a welcome addition to the draft pool.
- With Orlando Arcia now in the mix, the Brewers don't know exactly where to play Jonathan Villar next season, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. He failed to impress at third base and ended up playing more second during the final week of the season. Surely, Scooter Gennett won't stand in his way, but the idea of him being an awkward fit doesn't help his job security. If he shows any slippage from his out-of-nowhere 2016 next year, how long before the Brewers pull the plug? Jean Segura is kind of in the same boat, but I get the sense the Diamondbacks have more invested in him, which may be the tiebreaker for many Fantasy owners on Draft Day.
- Brewers general manager David Stearns says he expects to get calls on Ryan Braun this offseason. He apparently came close to dealing him to the Dodgers in August, according to USA Today. I suspect a contender would be all the more motivated to keep Braun's bat in the lineup every day, and seeing as he was the sixth-best outfielder in Head-to-Head points per game this year, that would be a welcome change.
- Edwin Diaz told the Tacoma News Tribune he tired down the stretch, unaccustomed to pitching in September, not that you'd know it from his final numbers. But if you use his final five appearances, in which he allowed five earned runs on 10 hits, to question his fitness for the closer role, well, you're wrong. His 15.3 strikeouts per nine innings were the second-most for any rookie with a minimum 50 innings, sandwiched between Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel.
- Presumably holding out for closer money, Greg Holland is still unsigned and nearing the end of his Tommy John rehabilitation. And the Kansas City Star suggests the Royals could be first in line. A reunion would be even more plausible if they move Wade Davis, as rumored, so it's possible both ace relievers could be closing for a team in 2017. Right now, Holland ranks outside my top 30 relievers because no ninth-inning role is assured, but if that changes, he moves into my top 15, offering top-five upside.
- Speaking of ace relievers recovering from Tommy John surgery, Carter Capps is reportedly ahead of schedule. He's with the Padres now, lest you've forgotten, and presumably was acquired to fill the closer role eventually. Seeing as he had the procedure March 8, opening day still seems like a stretch, but you'll want to curb your optimism for Brandon Maurer. As good as he was in the role, compiling a 3.09 ERA over 32 appearances, he just isn't capable of this:
- After missing much of July and August with foot pain, Taijuan Walker ended up having surgery to remove a bone fragment from his right ankle, so clearly he wasn't right in September either. And oh yeah, he was also working on his mechanics at the time. I know his 2016 was a disappointment amid all the hype, but I'm still confident we haven't seen the best of him yet.




















