15 Fantasy Football numbers to know for Week 6: Rob Gronkowski is back
Chris Towers dives into ProFootballFocus' advanced stats to take a look at the key numbers to consider for NFL Week 6.
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Chris Towers
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10 min read
Week 6 Rankings: Standard | PPR
Keeping up with 14 games in a week is a lot for your average Fantasy player to handle, so here is one key number to know for every game in the NFL in Week 5.
(Numbers from ProFootballFocus.com)
68.1
Philip Rivers' passer rating when pressured
If you were hoping Rivers might be able to sustain his strong play even in a tough matchup, this should stop you in your tracks. The Broncos' pass rush is graded as the third-best in the NFL by PFF, which shouldn't exactly come as much of a surprise -- that Von Miller guy is pretty good, you know. Rivers should be a viable starting Fantasy option for most weeks moving forward, but it's hard to start anyone against this Broncos' defense. Don't hold it against Phil.
16
Read-option carries for Blaine Gabbert this season
In eight starts last season, Kaepernick ran just 14 read-option runs, so it shouldn't come as much of a surprise that this has been more of a feature in the offense for the 49ers with Chip Kelly at the helm. However, there is a difference between running the ball with Blaine Gabbert (career 3.7 YPC) vs. Kaepernick (6.0). For one thing, the latter is just a much better runner than Gabbert, who is solid athlete at the quarterback position in his own right. However, the read-option also requires a quarterback to make the right read on the defensive end, and you would expect that read to come easier for a player with more experience running it. That means not only should Kaepernick benefit from playing in Kelly's offense, but we should also see even better things from Carlos Hyde moving forward. With the defense presumably needing to worry more about Kaepernick tucking the ball and making them pay, Hyde could have even less defensive attention to worry about.
3.6
Average YAC for Jordan Reed, down from 5.5 a year ago
Some tight ends, as we'll see later, can be used to stretch the field, but Reed really isn't that kind of receiver. He was targeted just six times last season on passes that traveled more than 20 yards down the field, and has just four so far this season. Reed is more used on high-percentage plays in the short and intermediate range, which means he needs to make plays with the ball in his hands to pick up bigger chunks of yardage. His yards per catch is down to 9.6 this season, as he just hasn't had quite as many big plays so far this season. On the whole, he looks a lot like the breakout star he was last season, however, so there isn't much concern here. But Reed may be more like the TE version of Jarvis Landry than a real contender for the No. 1 spot at the position.
12
Missed tackles forced by DeMarco Murray in Week 5, most for any RB this season
If you wrote off Murray after a lost season in Philadelphia, you are certainly regretting that these days. He leads the NFL in missed tackles for a runner, with 22, and ranks third among qualified running backs in PFF's Elusive Rating -- behind David Johnson and Isaiah Crowell. Murray has taken on a huge load for the Titans, with 117 touches in five games, and seems pretty much game script-proof with 24 receptions. The Browns' defense has been better then its reputation might suggest, holding opponents to 3.9 yards per carry. But Murray's combination of skill and workload makes him an obvious must-start Fantasy running back against pretty much any matchup.
3.20
Terrance West's yards per carry after contact, third-best in the league
What makes West's recent strong play even more impressive is the fact that he rushed for just 3.9 yards per carry over 233 attempts in his first two seasons before this one. He has emerged as the clear go-to option in the Ravens' backfield, and should be able to hold off Kenneth Dixon as he works his way back from a knee injury. The Giants have improved as a defense, ranking 28th in yards per carry allowed, but West still has value as a No. 2-type Fantasy running back.
12
Greg Olsen's targets beyond 20 yards downfield
Most tight ends do their work in the intermediate range of the field, but Olsen isn't most tight ends. He was third in the league in deep targets last season, and has seen that part of his game expand even further this season, with 23.5 percent of the passes thrown his way traveling at least 20 yards down the field. He has picked up 149 yards on such plays, by far the most in the NFL. Only two other tight ends have even picked up 100 yards. The Panthers run an unconventional offense in a number of ways, and Olsen's role is just one example of that. He may not get 181 yards again this week, but he is either the No. 1 or 2 tight end against this New Orleans defense because he had 17 receptions for 263 yards and two scores in two games against the Saints last season.
100.9
Brian Hoyer's PFF QB Rating
Over at PFF, they will take out drops, thrown away passes and spikes, as well as yards picked up after the catch, to try and determine which quarterback has played best independent of the work his receivers do. This is an imperfect measure, obviously, because Hoyer leads the NFL by this measure. All jokes aside, Hoyer has managed to play remarkably well so far, completing 71.4 percent of his passes for 7.9 yards per attempt, and his NFL passer rating of 108.7 still puts him fourth. You don't need to massage these numbers to make him look good. The question, of course, is how much of this is sustainable, and that is where it is hard to have much faith in Hoyer keeping this up in the long run. However, with a matchup against the Jaguars in Week 6, it may not slow down quite yet.
81.7
Percent of Todd Gurley's yards that have come after contact with a defender
This is the third-highest mark in the league among qualified backs, and points to the continued issues the Rams have had in giving Gurley room to run. On the other hand, PFF has graded Gurley as the third-worst runner in the NFL among players who have logged at least 50 percent of their teams' snaps. Gurley has had to do much of his work after contact with a defender, but his 2.4 yards per carry average after contact ranks just 17th out of 29 backs as well, so it's not like he is exactly dominating there either. Considering Gurley was second in the NFL in yards per carry after contact last season, it is certainly fair to say he isn't playing at as high a level so far this season.
43.3
Percent of Ryan Tannehill's dropbacks he is pressured on
That number surged in Week 5, as Tannehill played with two starters along the offensive line missing. He was pressured on 56 percent of his dropbacks, and was sacked 43 percent of the time when he was pressured. Hopefully he will have Branden Albert and Laremy Tunsil back for Week 6, but even if he does, the Steelers look like an awfully good DST play against a team that has consistently had trouble protecting its quarterback.
36
Pass Routes run by Rob Gronkowski in Week 5
Gronk served as a sort of glorified extra tackle in his first two games, serving as a blocker on 36 plays compared to just 17 when he went out on a route. He is a good blocker, and still stayed in on 29 plays to block in Week 5, but was finally unleashed as a receiver full-time. He was running a route on all but eight of Tom Brady's dropbacks, and was unsurprisingly the team's most effective receiver overall, hauling in five of seven passes for 109 yards in the game. Martellus Bennett benefited from the attention Gronkowski drew -- the Browns often doubled Gronkowski anytime they were near the end zone. But Gronkowski proved he is healthy and capable yet again. You won't sit him again this season.
7.8
Percentage of Derek Carr's passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield
This sort of flies in the face of Carr as a young gunslinger. The Raiders' offense has actually been pretty conservative, as only two quarterbacks have attempted a deep pass less often than Carr. With Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper, you would expect that number to rise, but he was pretty conservative last season as well, ranking 20th out of 35 qualifying passers in this stat. Carr can throw the deep ball, but the Raiders prefer to have him pick his spots, which limits risk but might put a ceiling on just how many big plays this offense can turn in. That hasn't been an issue for them so far, at least.
4.35
Yards per route run by Tevin Coleman
Coleman's dominance as a pass-catcher has helped keep him Fantasy relevant as the smaller end of a timeshare in Atlanta's backfield, and it has also come as a relatively big surprise. Coleman had just two receptions on 11 targets in 12 games, but already has 313 yards on 17 catches to date. If you're good at math, you'll recognize that works out to 18.4 yards per catch, which is, to put it mildly, unsustainable. Coleman has been a terrific contributor for Fantasy purposes, but it is hard to expect him to keep this up when he has been so dependent on touchdowns and big plays. If you have a chance to sell high, doing so before a matchup against this Seahawks defense is a good idea.
25.9
Percent of Dak Prescott's dropbacks in play action
Can we give Prescott credit for his strong play while still acknowledging that the Cowboys have run a highly simplified version of their offense for him? The threat of Ezekiel Elliot running have opened things up for him, and Prescott has especially feasted in the play action, averaging 10.0 yards per pass attempt and completing 77.5 percent of his passes after run fakes. Prescott has played well, and the Cowboys have smartly tuned their game plan to minimize the number of risks he has to take. However, this Packers' defense has been one of the best in the league against the run, and if they can bottle Elliot up, we might see Prescott stumble a bit.
4.0
Percent of Lamar Miller's yards picked up on carries of 15-plus yards
Miller has been a completely different running back this year. Last season, he ranked just 17th in total rushing attempts, but had the seventh-most yards on carries of at least 15 yards. This season he is fourth in rushing attempts, but 36 different backs have more carries of at least 15 yards. He has just one such run, and it went for exactly 15 yards. Miller may be having trouble holding up to the massive workload the Texans are giving him, but that wouldn't explain why he has struggled to get much going early on in games. The Texans' line hasn't been great, but it's not like the lines he was running behind in Miami were any good either. My guess is, Miller will rip off a few more long runs in the next few weeks, and will look more like the back we expected to see moving forward.
42.4
Percent of balls thrown to Michael Floyd graded as catchable
Not to make too many excuses for Floyd, who has dropped a couple of passes and has been demoted to fourth in the receiving hierarchy over the past two weeks, behind Jaron Brown. However, he hasn't exactly gotten much help from the quarterback play in Arizona, which has taken a big step backward from last season even when Carson Palmer has been active. Floyd deserves some of the blame for that as well -- it's hard to throw a catchable ball if you aren't open -- but there's still a chance Floyd can turn things around with more accurate quarterback play. In fact, there is a good opportunity here against a Jets' defensive backfield that is injured and has yet to play well this season.
