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This week is starting to look eerily similar to David Lingmerth's first PGA Tour win at the Memorial Tournament two years ago. That week, Lingmerth got off to a blazing start before a hiccup on Saturday and close-out playoff win over Justin Rose on Sunday. This time, there is no Justin Rose to deal with, but the first three rounds have gone the same.

Lingmerth opened 65-65 at the Quicken Loans National this week before pumping a 73 on Saturday rife with three bogeys and a double. He's a 7-under 203 after three rounds, and he leads by one over Daniel Summerhays (who looks like his American doppelganger) and two over Spencer Levin. Curtis Luck, Geoff Ogilvy and Sung Kang are three back. Kyle Stanley, Charles Howell III, Andrew Loupe, Martin Laird and Johnson Wagner are four back.

The reality here is that Lingmerth is not an elite player or a great closer, and this tournament is anybody's to win. But Lingmerth is the leader, and Vegas has installed him as the +135 favorite. His recent history (and logic) tells us that he probably already got his bad round out of the way, and he's going to surge again on Sunday after building a commanding lead on Thursday and Friday.

In fact, it's what he's done in his only two pro wins.

  • 2015 Memorial: 67-65-72-69
  • 2012 Neediest Kids Championship: 66-66-74-66

So there is precedent, and that second tournament -- a Web.com Tour affair -- was actually on the same TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm course that PGA Tour pros are playing this week.

Saturday's round was tough to work through for the players in this field. There was a 91-minute weather delay and no rhythm throughout. Of the leaders, Lingmerth probably felt it most of all.

"Missed a couple tee shots to the left, which is something that I don't usually do," Lingmerth told reporters after his round. "And it kind of maybe got me a little unnerved, I guess, with the tee balls for the rest of the day because I didn't hit as many fairways as I usually do."

After hitting 22-of-28 fairways in Rounds 1 and 2, Lingmerth touched just six of 14 on Saturday. He missed them left, yes, but he also missed them right, too.

If Lingmerth falters, there will be plenty of capable players there to clean up his mess. Levin shot a sick 65 on Saturday, and Stanley and Howell surged as well. 

Still, this is Lingmerth's to lose. I thought he would flail a bit on Saturday before riding hard on Sunday. The question is whether he can be overtaken. He'll have to drive the ball better, which he does not normally do but did so magnificently on Thursday and Friday.

Lingmerth, winner of just one PGA Tour event in his career certainly does not lack for confidence going into the final round of this event.

"I think I can win a couple times a year if I just do what I'm supposed to do," Lingmerth said. 

Sunday at Avenel Farm could be a nice jumpstart to 2017 for someone who doesn't have a top 10 finish on his resume this season.