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The 2017 Masters is nearly here, but first, it is time to make some predictions (that are sure to go poorly early and make me look foolish before the weekend starts). Last year, I predicted that there would not be a hole-in-one and there were three on the same day.

So it’s up in the air whether you should listen to me, but I do have some things I think will (or won’t) happen based on immersing myself in golf news and data over the past few weeks. Let’s get started with an obvious one.

1. Henrik Stenson misses the cut: The Big Swede has never finished in the top 10 at Augusta, and he’s coming off two straight missed cuts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Houston Open. I would love to see him in the mix, but I don’t see it happening.

2. Jordan Spieth hits a ball in the water Thursday or Friday: This has less to do with the way Spieth will rebound from last year and more to do with the fact that the wind will swirl on the first two days. Plus, Spieth is stubborn as hell.

3. Sergio Garcia leads after Round 1: He will make us think improbable things after 18 holes of flighting his ball under the swirling wind at Augusta National. He won’t close, but it will be fun early on.

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4. Curtis Luck bests Bryson DeChambeau’s finish from 2016: DeChambeau finished T21 after flirting with the lead early. Luck is a complete stud and has the goods to finish in the top 20. There is a mystique surrounding ams and this tournament, and I think Luck, who will turn pro shortly after the final round here, will fully embrace it. He’s a pro who doesn’t make money right now, and he’s fully ready for his first (of many) trips around Augusta National.

5. We get a playoff between Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler: I just Googled premium medical care in Richmond County because, if this actually comes to fruition, I might need some long-term treatment.

6. Tyrrell Hatton finishes top five: He is the best player in the world nobody has ever heard of. After this week, that won’t be the case. There has been a lot of buzz over the past few days from people who know things that Hatton could (and will) contend. I believe it. He has two straight top 10s at majors. He could easily be this year’s Danny Willett (minus the win).

7. Ernie Els gets a proper send off: After last year’s disaster on the first hole (Els took six putts), he will make it to the weekend and have a nice victory lap around Augusta National. It’s crazy to think that someone who came close so many times (Els had five top-six finishes in five years in the early 2000s) will likely never make it back, but hopefully the Big Easy will enjoy his last ride, all four rounds of it.

8. There will be a hole-in-one this year: I learned my lesson last year when we got an all-time great on No. 16. Before that, nobody had made one since 2013, but No. 16 is structured perfectly for Sunday aces.

9. Justin Rose has a big week: I think Rose could certainly win, or maybe he’ll lead after 54 holes or something similar. But I feel that Rose is going to be in the mix on the weekend at some point. Rose has bagged some monstrous courses (Merion, Muirfield Village and Congressional among them), and Augusta National would fit in nicely.

10. Rory McIlroy wins: I’m concerned about Dustin Johnson. I’m concerned about the wind Thursday and Friday. I’m concerned about the fact that he hasn’t played as much as he would have liked. I’m concerned (mostly) about Jordan Spieth.

McIlroy has to avoid big numbers, which has not been his forte around these parts. 

But here is McIlroy’s saving grace (or graces). One, the fairways here are already a little soggy. He is destructive on soggy courses. Two, because of some early rain this week, there’s a feeling of golfers having to just go and play without as much prep time as normal. This works to the advantage of several of the top talents but maybe none so much as McIlroy.