Maybe Series MVP Madison Bumgarner is elite after all
Postseason performances don't usually indicate a sea change in a player's Fantasy value, but the World Series MVP has been a different -- and better -- pitcher for awhile now.
By
Al Melchior
•
2 min read
Throughout Madison Bumgarner's historic postseason, I've been adamant that I wouldn't treat him any differently on draft day next spring than I would have if the Giants hadn't even made the playoffs. After yet another dominant performance, I decided to take another look at Bumgarner's stats to see if I had overlooked something. It turns out I had.
Over his career, Bumgarner has been a good, but not exceptional, control pitcher, but during the playoffs, he walked only six batters over 52 2/3 innings. (Thanks for the large postseason sample, Madison.) He's also established himself as consistently neutral when it comes to flyball/ground ball tendencies, but in the playoffs, he recorded a 30 percent ground ball rate (per FanGraphs) that would put him in the same company with extreme flyball pitchers like Jered Weaver and Jake Odorizzi.
What makes this even more noteworthy is that the dramatic change in Bumgarner's statistical profile actually began two months before the end of the regular season. Over 10 starts in August and September, Bumgarner walked seven batters in 72 1/3 innings while throwing a phenomenal 71 percent of his pitches for strikes. His 40 percent ground ball rate (per Baseball-Reference) over that period wasn't extreme, but it was markedly lower than his prior rates.
Beginning with his Aug. 3 start at the Mets, Bumgarner embarked on an apparent change in his approach. In that outing, he threw his four-seamer 53 percent of the time (according to BrooksBaseball.net), as compared with 39 percent over his prior 23 starts. From that first August start forward, all the way through Game 7 of the World Series, Bumgarner used his four-seamer at a 54 percent rate, with the increased usage coming at the expense of his cutter.
In de-emphasizing his cutter, Bumgarner has been relying less on his main ground ball pitch. He has also been working up in the zone with greater frequency, lending further evidence that his shrinking ground ball rate is no coincidence.
Bumgarner allowed three home runs all postseason, so he didn't pay much of a price for being more of a flyball pitcher, but he did allow 1.1 home runs per nine innings over his final 10 regular-season starts. The payoff for flyball pitchers is typically a higher popup rate and, in turn, a lower BABIP rate. Bumgarner posted a .246 BABIP over that stretch, followed by a .180 BABIP in the postseason. That playoff mark would be practically impossible to replicate over a larger sample of innings, but Bumgarner backed up his late regular season success with a 10 percent popup rate.
All of this is to say that if the last three months are any indication, Bumgarner has become a pitcher who could be about to put up some filthy WHIPs for Fantasy owners. If he can sustain ultra-low walk and BABIP rates, he could become the starting pitcher equivalent of Koji Uehara. Add in strikeout-per-inning stuff and a home park that can minimize his home-run risk, and we may have a pitcher who may not be Clayton Kershaw's equal, but also may not be far behind.
