Are we overlooking Taylor Jungmann?
It's hard to explain how the Brewers' fifth starter has enjoyed so much recent success, so Al Melchior talked to the righty to better understand his apparent breakout.
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When the Brewers promoted Taylor Jungmann from Triple-A Colorado Springs on June 9, it didn't exactly set of a firestorm of activity in Fantasy leagues. The 25-year-old was the third starting pitcher summoned from the minors after Wily Peralta was placed on the DL with an oblique injury, following in the footsteps of Tyler Wagner and Tyler Cravy. Unlike the Tylers, Jungmann hadn't compiled numbers in the minors that would seem to portend a longer stay in the majors.
Yet despite a 6.37 ERA over 59 1/3 innings at Colorado Springs, it has been Jungmann who has managed to stick around in the Brewers' rotation. He cemented his role on Sunday with his best performance to date -- an eight-inning outing at Cincinnati in which he limited the Reds to one run on four hits. This start lowered Jungmann's ERA to 2.43, and he improved his record to 3-1. He also trimmed his WHIP to 1.11, which is a notable feat for a pitcher who had struggled with control for most of his minor league career.
Even before Sunday's start, Jungmann was starting to enjoy a level of success that was out of line with his bloated ERA from Triple-A. In retrospect, the signs of progress were there, hidden deeper inside his minor league numbers. Jungmann did post a 4.4 BB/9 ratio at Colorado Springs, but away from his hostile, high-altitude home environment, his ratio
shrank to 3.3. He had also boosted his ground ball rate from last season's 56 percent at Triple-A Nashville to 61 percent. Most damaging to Jungmann's ERA was a 55 percent strand rate, and in controlling for that and other luck- and defense-related factors, FIP estimates that his ERA would have actually been a much svelter 3.86.
Two days prior to Jungmann's start in Cincinnati, I spoke with him about some of these trends and how he has been able to enjoy success in his initial exposure to the major leagues. What Jungmann -- and his stats -- have to say about his recent results make him someone to consider in mixed leagues.
On the challenges of working on his control:
Jungmann said that the key to throwing more strikes has been to work on his timing and rhythm, which has not been an easy task for a self-described tall and lanky guy. He cites moving towards the arm side of the pitching rubber as an important step in his progress towards better control. This was a move he made at the behest of Nashville (and now Colorado Springs) pitching coach Fred Dabney. Jungmann said the new location "felt weird at first, so my control was still shaky, but that happens." The lack of initial results were apparent from the 4.1 BB/9 ratio Jungmann posted at Nashville, but he did improve his strikes-thrown rate over his Triple-A innings from 58 to 60 percent this year.
On his reliance on his four-seamer:
Among starting pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings, only James Paxton, Eduardo Rodriguez and Archie Bradley have thrown their four-seamer as a higher percentage of their total pitches. Though Jungmann has enjoyed a healthy 54 percent ground ball rate, according to the PitchFX data on FanGraphs, he has thrown two-seamers on only 2.5 percent of his pitches, as compared a 70.7 percent rate for his four-seamer.
Jungmann is well aware of the discrepancy. "Everybody thinks if you get ground balls, it's the sinker. As a six-foot-six guy, I can throw my four-seamer across my body and get cut and downward motion on it. It's just as effective at getting grounders as a two-seamer."
At the time of this interview, the PitchFX data on BrooksBaseball.net bore out this claim. Through Jungmann's first five starts, he had a 64 percent ground ball rate on his four-seamer and a 63 percent rate on his two-seamer. While his two-seamer did not yield a single extra-base hit, Jungmann allowed a tiny .067 Isolated Power rate on his four-seamer.
On getting ground balls in any environment:
One of Jungmann's most notable starts this season was at Coors Field. Though he did allow four earned runs against the Rockies -- his highest total to date -- he was able to induce 12 ground balls over six innings. Jungmann also had a much higher ground out-to-air out ratio in his home starts at Colorado Springs (3.38) than he did in his road starts (2.12) in Triple-A this season.
In asking how he was able to achieve that Jungmann said that "you have to trust your fastball and be conscious about keeping the ball down." In the thin air of Colorado, that is easier said than done, but Jungmann said it helps to "get your backside through on every pitch."
Sizing up Jungmann's Fantasy value:
Jungmann's minor league strikeout rates have been fairly ordinary, but he could sustain a level of success that would make him valuable in Fantasy, at least in two-start weeks, if he can maintain the gains he has made in his control. For someone who has only recently made improvements in this area, it's remarkable that he has issued no more than two walks
in any of his first six starts.
Mike Montgomery (82 percent owned) and Cody Anderson (50 percent owned) have also enjoyed great success in recent weeks, even though they, too, have been amenable to allowing contact. Both are owned in a much higher proportion of leagues on CBSSports.com than Jungmann (18 percent owned). However, the Brewers' righty has a skill set that gives him the best chance of the three to remain viable in mixed leagues. In any mixed format that has at least 14 teams, it's time to consider adding Jungmann to your rotation.















