Porcello leans on approach and a bit of luck to become 2016's first 20-game winner

Porcello continued his breakout 2016 by earning his 20th win of the season on Friday night

On Friday night, Rick Porcello pitched the Red Sox to a crucial victory against the Blue Jays (BOS 13, TOR 3) and in doing so became the first 20-game winner of 2016.

Porcello's now an eye-catching 20-3 on the year, and while pitcher wins and losses can be deeply misleading, the 27-year-old Boston right-hander has indeed been excellent in 2016. In 193 2/3 innings this season, Porcello has pitched to a 3.21 ERA, and his 5.55 K/BB ratio leads the American League.

This is the kind of thing we've been expecting to see from Porcello for some time. The Tigers made him the 27th overall pick of the 2007 draft, but in reality Porcello was widely regarded as the top prep arm available. He fell to the Tigers only because of signability concerns, and the Tigers had to pay him way above slot in order to buy him out of to buy him out of an informal commitment to the University of North Carolina.

Porcello reached the majors at the age of 20 years and 103 days. When you work your way to the highest level at such a young age, that itself is a signifier of future greatness. Porcello indeed showed much promise that first year, as he registered an ERA+ of 114 in 31 starts and finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year balloting. Between that point and the current season, however, Porcello put together only one quality year -- 2014, his last in Detroit.

After the Red Sox acquired Porcello for a package fronted by Yoenis Cespedes, they signed him to an $82.5 million contract extension. The fact that the Sox paid such rates is a testament to Porcello's upside. The fact that it raised eyebrows is a testament to his middling performance up until that point. Entering the 2016 season, Porcello had a career ERA+ of 96 and only one 200-inning season to his credit. That's not bad, to be sure, but it's also not front- or even middle-of-the-rotation performance.

So what's happened this season? In part, it's that luck is finally going Porcello's way. Take, for instance, his ERA versus his FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching over the years. FIP is scaled to look like ERA but reflects just those outcomes that have nothing to do with fielding -- i.e., strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed. As such, it's a better measure of raw pitching skill than ERA is. As well, when you see a substantial divide between ERA and FIP, it sometimes indicates that luck is working for or against the pitcher in question to a significant degree. Here, then, are Porcello's ERAs and FIPs over the years ...

Year	Porcello's ERA	Porcello's FIP
2009	3.96	4.77
2010	4.92	4.31
2011	4.75	4.06
2012	4.59	3.91
2013	4.32	3.53
2014	3.43	3.67
2015	4.92	4.13
2016	3.21	3.47

As you can see, Porcello's ERA has been higher than his FIP in five of his eight seasons. In a related matter, he entered Friday's start with a career ERA of 4.24 and a career FIP of 3.97. If Porcello had pitched to those FIPs instead of those ERAs over the years, then suddenly that dubious contract extension looks like a market bargain instead.

Obviously, ERA and FIP rarely line up perfectly, but Porcello has, pre-2016, shown a pretty strong tendency toward underperforming those fundamental indicators. One thing that has helped him in 2016 is that he's allowing a BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) of .270 versus a pre-2016 career mark of .314. A pitcher's BABIP typically settles in at the .290-.300 range, so Porcello seems finally to be enjoying some good fortune on that front. The generally strong Boston defense is also probably playing a role in that suppressed BABIP.

Of course, there's more going on than luck and its outgrowths. Porcello's put up the strongest command-and-control indicators of his career in 2016. He also has taken something off his changeup, which as increased the "velocity gap" between his changeup and his hard stuff. That's typically a good thing, especially when it comes to keeping the opposite side in check. As well, he has continued his recent habit of flashing a cutter against right-handers, which, if nothing else makes his pitch mix more unpredictable. Porcello's also gone back to leaning on his sinker.

Porcello worked to become more four-seam-oriented in 2014 and for part of 2015, but after the stint on the disabled list last season he went back to relying on the pitch that defined the early part of his career. This season, Porcello is throwing the sinker more than 40 percent of the time, and this is a hurler who commands five different pitches and occasionally throws a sixth. Against right-handers this season, he's going to the sinker almost half the time. Clearly, it's working for him.

So there's some luck, there's some improved location and sequencing, and there's an altered approach. It has all added up to make Porcello the pitcher we thought he would be and, as of now, a deserving 20-game winner.