The Pirates have a multitude of issues costing them a shot at the playoffs
The loss to the Cubs on Friday dropped Pittsburgh to below .500 for the first time in a long time
By
Dayn Perry
•
2 min read
While there's no shame in being suffocated by the likes of Jake Arrieta, the Pirates' 6-0 loss to the Cubs on Friday (box score) was a significant one.
That's because the loss -- already their sixth loss to the Cubs in 2016 -- dropped them below .500 for the first time since April 20. Back then they were 7-8, and that's the kind of mark you can dismiss because of the early hour. Now, though, they're 33-34 -- i.e., more than 40 percent through the regular season -- and that's not so easily waved away.
As recently as May 27, the Buccos were nine games over .500, solidly in wild card position, and within a still-manageable 4 1/2 games of the Cubs. Since then though, they've gone 4-13, and over that span they've done things like drop two of three to the Angels and get swept at home by the Cardinals.
So what's gone wrong? Pretty much everything ...
| Span | Runs scored/game | Runs allowed/game |
| Through 5/27 | 5.17 | 4.47 |
| Since 5/27 | 3.35 | 5.30 |
That's a broad-based collapse right there.
The offense, formerly one of baseball's best, has seen a steep decline over that 4-13 run. As for specifics, the past 30 days or so have been particularly unkind to Jordy Mercer, Francisco Cervelli (even before he hit the disabled list), Sean Rodriguez, and Andrew McCutchen. In McCutchen's case, it's possible his thumb injury isn't fully healed, and that may be sapping his production. Whatever the reasons, he's far below his usual standards.
The rotation continues to be one of baseball's worst, as they rank 10th in the NL in starters' ERA and 13th in starters' FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which is scaled to look like ERA but reflects just those outcomes that have nothing to do with fielding -- i.e., strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed. As such, it's a better measure of raw pitching skill than ERA is.
Despite the established abilities of pitching coach Ray Searage, the rotation has been a trouble spot all year. It's been even worse over this grim stretch. The good news is that Jameson Taillon has already arrived in Pittsburgh and is looking like a substantial upgrade thus far. Fellow high-ceiling right-hander Tyler Glasnow may soon join him. As well, ace Gerrit Cole (triceps) is expected to be back in time to pitch most of the remainder of the season. That means the Pirate rotation may be substantially improved in the second half or at least down the stretch, depending on Cole's timetable.
Some of the damage is already done, though. Coming into 2016, the SportsLine Projection Model pegged the Pirates for 85 wins and gave them a very playable 30.7 percent chance of making the playoffs for a fourth straight season. As of Friday morning, though, SportsLine gave Pittsburgh just a 1.5 percent chance of making the postseason and forecast them for just 78 wins. Feel free to nudge those down a bit more after Friday's loss.
Those current playoff odds put the Pirates right between the Marlins and Diamondbacks when it comes the likelihood of being part of the postseason fray. On another level, based on 2016 records to date the Pirates will play one of the NL's toughest schedules the rest of the way.
Rotation improvements and a vintage McCutchen would surely help the Pirates improve their lot, but the last three weeks of bad baseball have put Pittsburgh in an unenviable position moving forward.
