'Monday Night Football' prediction: Brady leads Patriots past Ravens in nailbiter

Before we get to the prediction for Monday Night Football this week, let's take a second to appreciate just how good the Ravens-Patriots series has been. It might be the most underrated rivalry of the past six years.

Proof:

Oct. 17, 2010: The Patriots overcome a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to stun the Ravens in overtime, 23-20.
Jan. 22, 2012: Ahh, the Lee Evans/Billy Cundiff game. With a spot in the Super Bowl at stake, Evans drops a go-ahead touchdown pass in the final 30 seconds and Cundiff shanks a tying 32-yard field goal two plays later, sealing the Patriots' 23-20 win.
Sept. 23, 2012: The Ravens take their revenge, beating the Patriots 31-30 by scoring 10 points in the final 4:01 to steal a win. Torrey Smith, whose brother died before the game, catches the tying touchdown in the fourth quarter.
Jan. 20, 2013: The Ravens go into Foxborough and score 21 answered in the second half to advance to the Super Bowl, which they won.
Dec. 22, 2013: The Patriots win a 41-7 blowout.
Jan. 10, 2015: My favorite installment. In this game, the Patriots overcame TWO 14-point deficits. But that's not why this game is spectacular. It's spectacular because this is the game in which the Patriots used those weird formations (which they called "Baltimore" and "Raven") and tricked the Ravens with ineligible players. After, John Harbaugh said the Patriots were using illegal formations and Tom Brady responded by telling him to learn the rule book. The league even changed the rules in the offseason to prevent teams from following the Patriots' lead. The game also featured a Julian Edelman touchdown pass, so it's basically peak Belichick. And, oh yeah, the Patriots ended up winning the Super Bowl.

This week's installment of the rivalry features a 10-2 Patriots team and a 7-5 Ravens team -- a team led by a coach who still isn't over that illegal formation game, by the way.

On a conference call, John Harbaugh still sticking by his opinion that the Patriots' eligible-ineligible formation was an unfair advantage
— Ben Volin (@BenVolin) December 8, 2016

The Patriots have been one of the few consistent teams in football, but their season has been anything but steady. First, they had to survive Tom Brady's suspension and Jimmy Garoppolo's injury. Second, they traded away Jamie Collins. Most recently, they lost Rob Gronkowski for the season. Still, they've won three straight since a last-second loss to the Seahawks last month.

Despite being tied for the lead in the AFC North, the Ravens have flown under the radar. Yet here they are, in a position to snag a playoff spot. Their entire season has been streaky. They won their first three games and then went on to lose four straight. Since starting 3-4, they've managed to go 4-1 with their only loss coming against the Cowboys. So, while the Ravens might not be a favorite to wind up in Houston, they're qualified to be in the running for the postseason.

But there is a difference between the two teams. The Patriots -- not the Ravens -- are a favorite to emerge as the AFC's Super Bowl candidate. So, I'm taking the 10-win team in this game, because the game will be played in New England and because no one should ever bet against Belichick.

Plus, the Ravens are the team that thought pissing off Brady was a good idea.

While Brady has torched just about the entire NFL over the course of his career, we've been a thorn in his side: https://t.co/3UuUtkjKcS pic.twitter.com/BAFUxD5VP3
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 8, 2016

The pick: Patriots 23, Ravens 17.

Here are five stats behind that prediction.

1. The Ravens' advantage

Terrell Suggs leads one of the NFL's top defenses. USATSI

I can't wait for this game, because I can't wait to watch the Patriots' offense operate against one of the league's top defenses. The Patriots are ranked third in offensive DVOA, fifth in yards gained and sixth in points scored. The Ravens are ranked second in defensive DVOA, first in yards allowed and second in points allowed (though they're tied with New England).

We'll get to Brady in a second, but first let's take a look at the one area the Ravens can definitely win: the ground game.

The Ravens allow a league-low 3.4 yards per carry. While the Patriots' running back trio -- LeGarrette Blount, Danny and Brandon -- is dangerous, it's worth noting that the Patriots average just 4 yards per carry as a team, which ranks 20th. They're a good running team because they run the ball a lot, not because they're efficient.

So, to win this matchup, the Patriots will need to rely on Brady. That's not necessarily a bad thing.

2. How Tom Brady can beat the Ravens

Tom Brady is in the middle of one of his best years. USATSI

The Ravens aren't just good against the run, they're also capable against the pass, giving up just 6.6 yards per pass (fifth best in the NFL). But they haven't faced Brady yet.

Brady can beat the Ravens defense. He can beat the Ravens because he doesn't turn the ball over, which will negate the advantage the Ravens often gain in that area, as they're tied for the fifth in takeaways. Brady has the NFL's lowest interception percentage (0.3), not counting Brian Hoyer, who attempted 200 passes this year.

I expect the Patriots to use their screen game and quick-passing formula as an extension of their running game. The Ravens are very good at defending passes thrown deep downfield. According to Pro Football Focus' metrics, they've allowed a 74.8 passer rating on passes thrown 10-plus yards past the line of scrimmage.

And that's OK, because Brady is the king of picking apart defenses with quick, timing passes. Brady has also been incredible on passes thrown downfield this season. So, don't be shocked if he tests Baltimore's secondary despite its dominance on deep balls. Per PFF, Brady has a 119.2 passer rating on passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield. Somehow, a 39-year-old Brady improved on deep passes. Maybe it's his insane diet.

If Brady does go deep, he'll need to keep an eye on Eric Weddle, who hasn't slowed down since his departure from San Diego. Weddle is PFF's highest-graded safety and has snagged three picks.

The player the Patriots will want to target is Shareece Wright, who isn't one of the Ravens' top two cornerbacks he but has logged 291 coverage snaps this year, according to PFF. He has allowed a 128.9 passer rating when targeted by opposing quarterbacks.

Here's one key to the game for the Ravens: Consistently applying pressure without blitzing. Brady's passer rating drops from 123.4 to 87.0 when he's pressured, according to PFF. But his passer rating is actually better when he's blitzed (129.9 compared to 107.0).

The bad news for the Ravens? Brady releases the ball in less than 2.5 seconds 65.9 percent of the time. Only two quarterbacks throw the ball in that time frame more frequently than Brady, per PFF.

In a matchup between the Ravens' secondary and Brady, I'll take Brady, because I think Belichick and Josh McDaniels will find the matchups they can exploit.

3. A big game for Julian Edelman?

Julian Edelman could thrive against a defense that struggles in the slot. USATSI

Gronk is gone, so Julian Edelman is Brady's defacto BFF. As our Jamey Eisenberg noted in his weekly Fantasy column, the Ravens have been burned by slot receivers in recent weeks.

In their past five games, Jarvis Landry, Eli Rogers and Cole Beasley have combined for 22 catches and 249 yards against the Ravens. Edelman is better than all three of those players and, as previously mentioned, Brady will look to get the ball out quick against the Ravens.

This is a perfect matchup for Edelman.

4. Malcolm Mitchell's emergence

Tom Brady has leaned on Malcolm Mitchell since he lost Rob Gronkowski. USATSI

In Malcolm Mitchell's first eight games of his rookie season, he caught seven passes for 95 yards. In his three most recent games, he has 17 catches for 222 yards and three touchdowns. So, why did I use that cutoff point?

The first of those three games came when Gronk sat out with a lung injury. In the second of those three games, Gronk lasted a quarter before exiting with a back injury. In the third game, Gronk didn't play.

Without Gronk, Mitchell has become a legitimate threat in the Patriots' offense. That's exactly what they needed from their fourth-round rookie after losing their best play maker.

5. The Patriots' defense is good enough

The Ravens have been awful on offense this year. USATSI

OK, enough about the Patriots' offense. Let's look at the other half of the game: The Ravens' offense against the Patriots' defense.

Shockingly, the Patriots' defense is actually better statistically than most probably assume. They don't have a pass rush, but they're allowing 17.3 points per game -- the exact same number as the Ravens. That's a mirage, though. The Patriots' defense is not as good as the Ravens'. By defensive DVOA, the Patriots are ranked 19th and DVOA is a better statistic given it adjusts for things like quality of opponent.

But the Patriots are good enough to stop the Ravens' offense, which isn't anything special. The Ravens score just 21.3 points per game. Joe Flacco ranks 29th with a very un-elite 6.56 yards per attempt. He has thrown 15 touchdowns and 11 picks. His passer rating? 84.1. As a team, they average 3.7 yards per carry.

The Patriots aren't dominant on defense. But they're good enough to stop a bad offense. And the Ravens have a bad offense (27th in DVOA).