Monday Night Football prediction: Derek Carr, Raiders crush Texans in Mexico City
Plus, five stats to back up that prediction
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5 min read
A game between the Raiders and Texans doesn't just pit two winning teams against each other, it features two teams that enter Week 11 at the top spots in their divisions. But that doesn't mean the game includes two good teams.
The Texans are 6-3, but they're not any good. They don't have an adequate quarterback, they're missing their best player (J.J. Watt), they have a -27 point differential, and they've capitalized on their schedule by barely beating awful teams like the Jaguars, Colts, and Bears. Still, the Texans are in first place of the AFC South and are on track to make another trip to the postseason.
But those postseason plans will hit a snag Monday night, because on Monday night, the Raiders will be there to meet them on the field. Even though the Texans have the luxury of playing a road game at a neutral location (Mexico City) -- then again, the players can't even leave their hotel rooms so maybe luxury isn't the correct word -- that won't be enough to make up the difference.
Unlike the Texans, the Raiders have an actual quarterback -- a quarterback the team could've drafted, but chose an offensive lineman instead. That's not to say they don't have their flaws, which we'll get to, but there's no way Brock Osweiler will be able to keep pace with Derek Carr. Quarterback wins is almost an overused stat and so is comparing quarterbacks as if they're actually playing against each other, but when the difference in quarterbacks is this substantial, it matters.
That's the main reason why I'm picking the Raiders to rout the Texans. It's rather simple: The Raiders have the better quarterback, by far, and the Texans' defense just isn't good enough to win the game on its own.
The prediction: Raiders 34, Texans 17
Now, here are five stats you should know about the game.
1. The Raiders' record away from home
In a weird turn of events, the Raiders are a perfect 5-0 on the road and 2-2 at home. In those five road games, they've averaged 28.6 points per game. In those four home games, they've averaged 25.5. So the difference, at least offensively, isn't notable. The main difference is in the defense. At home, the Raiders are giving up 28 points per game. Away from home, that number drops to 22.2.
The reason for the difference probably isn't the location. It's the level of play. At home, the Raiders lost to the Chiefs, who are also 7-2, and the Falcons, a team that's shown the ability to hang with just about anyone and leads the NFL in scoring.
Still, it won't hurt the Raiders to know that they're giving up a home game to play in Mexico City. It also won't hurt to know the Texans are scoring just 17.9 points per game.
2. Derek Carr's prolific numbers
In his third season, Derek Carr has emerged as arguably the best young quarterback in the NFL. His touchdown-interception ratio is an absurd 17-3. He's ranked ninth in passer rating. Pro Football Focus has him tied with Russell Wilson as their fourth best quarterback.
So, he's been good. Just how good is still unclear and opinions can vary by using different metrics -- as an example, consider he's ranked 19th in yards per attempt -- but the fact that he's been good isn't up for debate.
Impressively, he's held up under pressure by posting an 83.0 passer rating -- the sixth-best rating according to PFF. He's also pieced together the fourth-highest passer rating (121.5) on balls thrown 20 or more yards downfield.
The Texans are ranked 13th in defensive DVOA. They're not really great at anything. Football Outsiders ranks them 11th against the pass and 24th against the run. They've only generated eight turnovers this season.
3. Brock Osweiler's awful numbers
On the other side of the quarterback spectrum is Brock Osweiler, the Texans' $72 million quarterback -- yeah, yeah, yeah, I know he's guaranteed only $37 million, but that saps all the fun out of ripping the Texans' decision to sign Osweiler without even really meeting him.
Let's take a look at where Osweiler stacks up through the first nine games of his Texans career:
- 58.6 completion percentage (29th)
- 5.61 yards per attempt (33rd, dead last)
- 11 touchdown passes (tied 17th)
- 9 interceptions (tied 7th)
- 74.1 passer rating (31st)
- 38.8 passer rating under pressure (27th out of 28 qualifying quarterbacks), per PFF
- 58.4 passer rating on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield (21st out of 26), per PFF
On the bright side, he's still the tallest quarterback in the NFL.
On a more serious note, if there ever was a game for Osweiler to breakout, this would be it. The Raiders are 28th in defensive DVOA.
He might find success deep down the field. On passes traveling 20-plus yards in the air toward the right and left boundaries, the Raiders have allowed quarterbacks to go 11 of 21 for 396 yards, three touchdowns, one pick for a passer rating of 117.6, according to PFF.
So, that's why the Texans might want to target routes deep down the sideline. Remember, though, Osweiler has a 58.4 passer rating on deep passes.
4. Stopping the Raiders' receiving duo
The NFL's best receiver duo belongs to the Raiders. Combined, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree have totaled 1,439 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Cooper's done most of the heavy lifting in terms of yards with 843 while Crabtree's come down with six of the eight touchdowns.
And don't sleep on Seth Roberts. He's racked up 277 yards and four touchdowns. Per PFF, Carr's accumulated a 103.7 passer rating when throwing to Roberts.
The Texans' top two cornerbacks, Kareem Jackson and Johnathan Joseph, are allowing passer ratings of 97.4 and 89.9 respectively, according to PFF.
5. The Texans' one chance: Lamar Miller
If the Texans pull off the upset, they'll need their ground game to get going. They have a chance to do that because Lamar Miller, unlike Brock Osweiler, turned out to be a great offseason addition. Miller entered the week with the seventh most rushing yards (720).
And the Raiders are vulnerable against the run. They're allowing 4.7 yards per rush -- tied for the second-worst average in the NFL.
