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It's time to be thankful today, and I'm very thankful that I'm still over .500 after a horrific week on my Best Bets and a very bad week on my picks overall. Two of my Best Bets were tracking as winners until the last minute, with the Jaguars and Rams somehow failing to cover (the Texans were a brutal beat, too, on Monday night, although not a Best Bet.

So this puts us back in an ugly bounce-back week, and in honor of the 72 hours in the car I'll spend with my wife and child the next three days, I'm taking some road teams to as outright winners: three dogs and pair of favorites.

Two of them are on Thanksgiving so get those picks in early, people.

Minnesota Vikings +2.5 at Detroit Lions: Look, Detroit seems like the better team in some aspects because of clutch performances late in games. But they're the first team in NFL history to have their first 10 games decided by one score, and also the first team in league history to trail in the fourth quarter of their first 10 games and manage to win six. They're getting lucky, you're getting points and Minnesota owes them one.

Washington Redskins +7.0 at Dallas Cowboys: Betting against the Cowboys is a dangerous proposition -- Dallas is even better against the spread (9-0-1) than straight up (9-1), which is pretty impressive. With the public backing them at every turn, the lines are starting to get a little inflated. Baltimore could have beaten the 'Boys, but fell apart late, and Washington is a better than the Baltimore. I'm backing the Skins on a short week off a Sunday night game vs. a divisional rival, but seven points is too many. Plus, they're just going to stun the Cowboys and win outright, ruining everyone's Thanksgiving.

Seattle Seahawks -5.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: It's a lot of points for a road team traveling from the West to East coast, but this is a bad matchup for the Bucs. Seattle has a loss this season in the NFC South (25-20 vs. NO on Oct. 30), but the Seahawks are rounding into form and the running game is heating up. Even if Thomas Rawls is "banged up," I could see him hitting the 100-yard mark and scoring once or twice.

Tennessee Titans -3.5 at Chicago Bears: Jay Cutler is supposed to be out for the season and that means it's Matt Barkley time. The Titans have underwhelmed in big spots, but they have a top-10 rushing offense by DVOA and the Bears are a bottom-10 rushing defense per DVOA. This is a DeMarco Murray/Derrick Henry dance party. You don't get cute, you run the ball 50 times, you play decent defense and you get out of Chicago with a convincing win to save the season. Grab this now before it moves even higher, after opening at Tennessee -2.

Carolina Panthers +3.5 at Oakland Raiders: This is a long trip against a dangerous team for Carolina, but the Panthers are getting 10 days' rest and are in a must-win situation. The Raiders are coming off a short week and a trip to Mexico City, where they should have lost to the Texans. Carolina's biggest worry is the loss of linebacker Luke Kuechly. The Panthers have enough depth and solid defensive line play to overcome Kuechly's loss for a huge road win in the Black Hole, where the Raiders are only 2-3 against the spread.

Last Week Best Bets: 1-4

Last Week Overall: 4-9-1

Best Bets Season: 25-25

Season Overall: 77-76-8