NFL Picks Week 5: Underdogs, including 49ers, who'll win outright or come close

These underdogs can sneak out some wins this week

Rough week again in Week 4, as we managed to tumble back to .500 courtesy of a 1-4 effort. It's alright. I'm gonna hunker down with a hurricane and get warm again this weekend.

I'm going back to a familiar formula and taking all dogs this week. That one favorite threw me off last week. Let's back some really bad quarterbacks this week!

Bears +4.5 at Colts -- There isn't much of a reason to love Chicago, because they're not a very good team. Two of their last three first-round picks (Kyle Fuller and Kevin White) are on injured reserve. John Fox has basically said they'll let Brian Hoyer start over Jay Cutler. They're starting a rookie at running back in Jordan Howard. But the Colts aren't very good either and they are coming off a loss in London to the Jaguars, and they're not getting a bye week! Everyone always gets the bye after London. I like the Bears to win outright.

49ers +3.5 vs. Cardinals -- Arizona should be primed to step up in a big way against a division rival, but they're going to be missing Carson Palmer on Thursday night. Both teams are going to try and play things conservative, and even though backing Blaine Gabbert for the second-straight week in this spot makes me nervous, it's a lot easier knowing Drew Stanton is on the other side of the field. Niners could win here but will at least keep it close.

Titans +3.5 at Dolphins -- Weird hurricane weather could very well delay this game or change the timing of it. Either way the Dolphins aren't going to be comfortable at home as a result and there shouldn't be a ton of crowd support for a team that isn't very good. Surely the Titans, who continue to burn me, will finally try and go up tempo more often. Tennessee steals this game.

Texans +6.5 at Vikings -- Minnesota has an incredible defense. Best in the league. And the Texans are going to be missing J.J. Watt and have Brock Osweiler under center. But I think this Houston team is better than people are giving it credit -- they have a lot of different options on offense who can break off big plays and a defense that's more than just one person. They keep it close here and it wouldn't surprise me if they win.

Lions +3.0 vs. Eagles -- Philly's been really impressive this year and is coming off a bye. But the Lions are capable of exposing their defense thanks to offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter and Matthew Stafford. There's a lot of tape on Carson Wentz. He's got to have one bad game at some point. Lions win outright.

Last Week Best Bets: 1-4

Last Week Overall: 7-8-0

Best Bets Season: 9-11

Season Overall: 34-28-1