Prediction: Broncos thump Brock Osweiler in his return on 'Monday Night Football'
The Broncos and Texans are both searching for their fifth win of the season
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4 min read
Earlier this week, Broncos linebacker Brandon Marshall expressed his desire to "kill" Brock Osweiler. He also said that he's happy for his former teammate for stealing (OK fine, he didn't use that word) bundles of cash from the Texans, but that's not the part that stood out.
#Broncos Brandon Marshall, smiling: "It's Brock. We know Brock. He came from here. And we want to kill him. That's just what we want to do."
— Paul Klee (@bypaulklee) October 17, 2016
And that's exactly what Marshall and his cohorts will do Monday night. When Osweiler arrives in Denver, he won't be greeted with cheers or thank yous for his contributions during the Broncos' Super Bowl run a year ago. He'll be massacred for spurning the Broncos in free agency (never mind the fact that nobody would've turned down the kind of money the Texans were offering). It won't just be the fans who massacre him, it'll be the Broncos' defense.
In this year's seventh edition of "Monday Night Football," expect a relatively low scoring game. Expect the Broncos' defense to ball out. And expect Osweiler to struggle.
We'll get to why those things will most likely happen in a second, but first my official prediction: The Broncos beat the Texans, 24-10, to improve to 5-2 while the Texans drop to 4-3.
OK, here is why the Broncos will win ...
1. Osweiler's numbers under pressure
Shockingly, Brock Osweiler has not proven to be a wise investment for the Texans. Yes, that was a sarcastic "shockingly." One of the biggest reasons Osweiler has struggled is because he hasn't dealt with pressure well.
According to Pro Football Focus, Osweiler's passer rating drops to 23.2 when he's under pressure. He's completed 25 passes on 81 dropbacks under pressure and averaged 3.5 yards per attempt. He's been picked off four times and sacked 12 times. When blitzed, he's completed 48.2 percent of his passes, averaged 5.3 yards per pass, and his passer rating sits at 59.7.
Now, to be completely fair to Osweiler, he's been bad when he's been well protected, too. In all, Osweiler ranks 27th in completion percentage (59.0), 29th in yards per attempt (6.18), 12th in touchdown passes (8), second in interceptions (8), and 29th in passer rating (74.1).
The Texans will probably lose because their quarterback stinks.
2. The Broncos' ability to bring pressure
The Texans will also probably lose because the Broncos are adept at generating pressure. They're ranked first in sacks with 21.0.
Obviously, Von Miller is responsible for most of the pressure. On the season, he's recorded 7.5 sacks -- the second highest total in the league. Among 3-4 outside linebackers, he's third in total pressures with 27, which measures sacks, hits, and hurries, according to Pro Football Focus.
So, keep an eye on the Super Bowl MVP. Most of the time -- 75.2 percent of the time, to be exact -- Miller will be attacking the Texans from the left side. Twenty-six of his pressures have come from the left.
Meanwhile, Osweiler has been under pressure on 33.5 percent of his dropbacks -- the 11th highest percentage in the NFL, per PFF.
3. The Texans can bring it too
There's another side to this game, though. The Broncos -- because Osweiler departed this offseason -- are relying on quarterback Trevor Siemian to continue his streak of not messing up too badly. So far this season, he ranks 16th in completion percentage (64.9), 22nd in yards per attempt (6.98), and 16th in passer rating (92.4).
That'll be tough to do against the Texans. Like the Broncos, the Texans know how to get after the quarterback. They're tied for seventh in sacks with 16.0.
Leading the way is Whitney Mercilus, who's racked up 4.5 sacks so far. He also ranks sixth (among outside 3-4 linebackers) in total pressures with 24, per PFF.
And like Osweiler, Siemian hasn't been great against pressure. He's completing 47.6 percent of his passes and averaging 4.8 yards per pass. His passer rating under pressure? 59.9, according to Pro Football Focus. For the sake of comparison, his passer rating rises to 105.0 when he isn't pressured.
If the Texans end up shocking the Broncos, it'll most likely be because they hounded Siemian all game long. Unfortunately for them, they'll be forced to deal with Broncos left tackle Russell Okung, who appears to be on track to play in the game.
4. Turnovers
In all, the Broncos' defense ranks fourth in DVOA, fourth in yards allowed per game, and eighth in points allowed per game. They've generated the fifth-most takeaways in the league with 11.
That's important. The Texans are tied for the seventh most turnovers with 10.
5. Running games
The teams' running games are trending in opposite directions. Broncos running back C.J. Anderson started the year by rushing for 92 yards on 20 carries (4.6 yards per carry). Since then, he's gone on to rush for more than 50 yards in just one game. On the season, he's averaging 3.5 yards per carry.
Lamar Miller, on the other hand, is coming off the best game of the season. In the Texans' come-from-behind win over the Colts, he racked up 149 yards on 24 carries (6.2 yards per carry). And so, the Texans appeared to have figured out an offensive formula: Take the game out of Osweiler's hands and place it in Miller's.
It might work against the Broncos, who are allowing 112.7 yards on the ground per game.
