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Inside the Lines' model has all four home teams advancing, including Oklahoma despite being a 1.5-point underdog. The simulations also project 12-seed JMU to cover as a +21.5 underdog, while Texas A&M (-3.5) and Ole Miss (-16.5) are both expected to cover as home favorites.
With the CFP bracket officially set, Inside the Lines has run full simulations across every game and every round to project this year's National Champion. Our model gives Georgia, the No. 3 seed, the most favorable path to the title. In the final, we project the Bulldogs as 5-point favorites over Indiana.
Inside the Lines immediately spotted value in the Colts the moment they signed Daniel Jones, projecting their playoff chances at 41.4%. They smashed early expectations with a 7–1 start that pushed their playoff odds to 98.2%. But after dropping 4 of their last 5, Indy has slid back to 58.6%. Here's a look at the Colts' week-to-week playoff odds — and how the Week 14 loss impacted their postseason chances.
In a jam-packed AFC, our model projects 10 wins as the key number to lock down a Wild Card spot. Below is each bubble team's percentage chance to reach the playoffs with 10 wins — and what happens if they fall short.
In the NFC, we project 11 wins to be necessary for a Wild Card Spot. Notable teams that we give less than a 50% chance to reach that mark but could still make the playoffs by winning their division include: Buccaneers, Lions, Cowboys, and Panthers.
