NBA 1/9: Things to Look Out For
The NBA, with its late scratches and major late line movement, makes it very difficult to be confident in best bets early in the day during the regular season. So instead of making best bets, I'll be pinpointing the lines (main markets, player props) where our model's projections most significantly deviate from the early lines and discuss what variables will cause either our line or the betting line to move significantly and anticipate how to best capitalize on these highly volatile situations.
New Orleans at Washington: Under Value
Trae Young is doubtful because he was just traded and is dealing with injuries. But without the traded C.J. McCollum and Corey Kispert the model doesn't like Washington to shoot much higher than 33% from 3pt range. The over/under has moved up to 242.5 (opened at 240.5) but without reliable perimeter shooting we like Washington to come in 3 pts under their 220ish team total and the Pelicans average 10 less on the road (231) than at home.
This is close to a pick'em so the threat of OT could hurt the under. But if the line creeps up another 1 point the under would be the play.
Thunder are Sitting Everyone vs Memphis
The Thunder are an awesome team largely because there interchangeable wing depth but with SGA, Chet, Hartenstein and backup C Jaylin Williams all out today vs Memphis it'll be tough for the likes of Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins, and Kenrich Williams to be nearly as productive without the defensive attention that SGA draws. Even Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso could be out.
The Thunder are still -4.5 favorites because Ja Morant is out and Cedric Coward is questionable. Ja is still a very valuable player worth 4 pts on the spread and 13 percentage points in the win% the last 2 seasons but he's not SGA valuable. The Thunder's real vulnerability is on the boards. They barely beat Utah at home because the Jazz had nearly a +30 reb advantage in regulation and they lost to CHA getting outrebounded by 19 and Phoenix where they got outrebounded by 20. I would keep my eye out on TW player Branden Carlson who put up 15/11 in 22 min on Jan 2 in a blowout Thunder win vs the Warriors and 12/7 in 20 min the night before vs POR. In the last day of last season he played 39 min and put up 26/10. I'm not seeing his lines early this am.
With all 3 Centers out for OKC look for Memphis to have a big rebounding advantage and get the potential upset. If you agree I'd jump on the +150 or better value you are getting before it potentially moves to the +120 range.
Suns a Live Home Dog vs New York
If the names were flipped and the Knicks, not the Suns, were at home with a 12-5 SU record (13-4 ATS) and +8 per game and the Suns (not the Knicks) where 8-9 on the road (5-12 ATS) with a -1 point differential the line would probably favor the home team by at least -3.5 instead of the Knicks being the -1.5 road favorite. The model currently has PHO -4.5 with a relatively clean injury report on both sides. Only Josh Hart is showing up as out for either team.
I think the size of the NY betting market combined with the enthusiasm for these Knicks and their overall strong 25-13 record results in too much action on their side regardless of them being on the road vs a team, who is playing much better than anyone expected this season. The Knicks are 3pt dependent team that barely outshoots opponents from 3pt range, while Phoenix is +4% at home.
