Ahead of a showdown between No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 LSU on Nov. 9, the possibility exists that game will be the first of two meetings between the Crimson Tide and Tigers in 2019. Oklahoma's loss at Kansas State as a 24-point favorite on Saturday means that it is now more likely that the College Football Playoff Selection Committee could choose to place two SEC teams in its field of four at the end of the regular season.
Oklahoma, which held the No. 4 spot in my CFP projection entering Week 9, has dropped out and been replaced by LSU, which is now projected to meet Alabama in a rematch at the Peach Bowl semifinal Dec. 28. The winner would face whoever survives in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal between Ohio State and Clemson, which are still projected to finish with undefeated seasons. The Buckeyes jumped to the No. 2 seed by virtue of their dominant play, the latest example of which was a blowout of a ranked Wisconsin team on Saturday.
In order for this scenario to emerge, the winner of the Alabama-LSU game Nov. 9 would have to finish the season as the undefeated SEC champion. The loser, which is projected to be LSU in this case, would still have to get through the rest of its schedule unscathed.
I believe the committee would prefer LSU, even at 11-1, over a potential 12-1 Big 12 champion Oklahoma or 12-1 Pac-12 champion Oregon because of its strength of schedule, high-quality wins and the fact that its only loss would come to projected No. 1 seed and undefeated Alabama.
But with five weeks left to play, anything can still happen. Heck, in just the last three weeks, we have seen 25-point favorite Georgia lose to South Carolina at home, 31-point favorite Wisconsin get upset at Illinois, and 24-point favorite Oklahoma be upset at Kansas State early Saturday.
2020 College Football Playoff
| Date | Game / Loc. | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 13 | National Championship | Title game | Semifinal winners |
Dec. 28 | Peach Bowl | Semifinal | (1) Alabama vs. (4) LSU |
Dec. 28 | Fiesta Bowl | Semifinal | (2) Ohio State vs. (3) Clemson |
LSU's move into the College Football Playoff means that the SEC's spot in the Sugar Bowl needs a new participant. That team is projected to be Georgia, which is expected to be the SEC East winner before losing in the SEC Championship Game. Oklahoma is still projected to be the Big 12 champion, but it will now take the league's place in the Sugar Bowl. Oklahoma's move to the Sugar Bowl means that Baylor gets shifted over to the Cotton Bowl.
The ACC is almost a 13-car pileup behind Clemson. It looks more and more like there will not be a ranked team from that league in the Orange Bowl. With Virginia and Pitt each losing this week, I am now projecting Wake Forest for that spot. Notre Dame's loss at Michigan drops the Irish out of the Orange Bowl, where they are replaced by Florida. Notre Dame's relatively poor schedule and lack of quality wins will hurt them in the eyes of the selection committee.
New Year's Six bowl games
| Date | Bowl / Location | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 1 | Sugar | SEC vs. Big 12 | Georgia vs. Oklahoma |
Jan. 1 | Rose | Big Ten vs. Pac-12 | Penn State vs. Oregon |
Dec. 30 | Orange | ACC vs. SEC/B1G/ND | Wake Forest vs. Florida |
Dec. 28 | Cotton | At-large vs. At-large | Memphis vs. Baylor |
Thanks in large part to that indistinguishable collection of teams behind Clemson in the ACC, I now have too many teams projected to be bowl eligible. The ACC now has a whopping 11 teams eligible for bowls in my current projection. But wait, there's more! Now that Notre Dame has fallen out of the New Year's Six, the Irish are also part of the ACC bowl pool. I did manage to find spots for all 12 "ACC" teams in the bowl projections, but unfortunately, I did not have room for Buffalo or Nevada.
Click here to see Jerry Palm's complete bowl projections after Week 9.
