2018 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Debating rankings for Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, and more first-round studs

Our experts debate rankings for some of the biggest names at the top of the draft among hitters.

Draft Prep Tiers: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Heath's Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts | Scott's Top 100 prospects | Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts

We use Slack to communicate internally, and now we're going to use it to communicate with you guys. Every Wednesday through the offseason and into the season, we're going to have Scott White and Heath Cummings discuss (and maybe debate, a little) their rankings. We're starting it off at the top of the draft, with a discussion of some of the more interesting hitters in the first two rounds. Here is the full (lightly edited) transcript of our chat: 

chris.towers: Alright, fellas. Fantasy baseball season is here. We're doing mock drafts, your columns previewing the season are starting to get posted, and your rankings are live on the site. We're going to try to have discussions about your rankings on the site every week, and we have to start with one big, glaring question: 

Heath, why do you hate Mike Trout?

He's your No. 4 overall player in Roto. No. 4???

scott.white: That's crazy. He's crazy! Heath, you're crazy. I can't even ...

heath.cummings: I love Mike Trout. I'm fine with calling him the best player in baseball. But let's not act like him finishing the year outside of the top three would be something abnormal. It's happened two of the past three years.

More importantly, I need steals. And I need them without hurting me in other categories. Jose Altuve and Trea Turner can give me steals and help me in every category.

scott.white: But if, with the No. 1 pick, you draft what ends up being the third-best player, how is that a problem? Is there any player as worry free, as assured of super-elite production as Trout? How many owners out there have waited for half a decade for the opportunity to draft Trout, finally have the No. 1 pick, and you're telling them, no, draft this other guy instead? I couldn't do it.

heath.cummings: Get your emotion out of here.

scott.white: Yes ... because favoritism of Trout isn't at all rooted in fact.

chris.towers: OK, Mike Trout finished only 19th last season. Fine. That's reasonable.

On the other hand! That was the best version of Mike Trout we've ever seen. It's hard to believe, because he's been so dominant for so long, but Trout isn't even 27 yet. He may not be at his peak yet. He had an OPS nearly 100 points higher than his career-high last season. How much of this is just ... he happened to get hurt last season?

scott.white: Unless you think Mike Trout is a perpetual injury risk, there's no reason to hold last year's 19th-place finish against him. Per game, he was the best. 

chris.towers: And, let's not forget ... we've never seen a full season from Trea Turner, either.

heath.cummings: Well, we saw 695 PA from Turner in 2016, it's just that half of them were in AAA

chris.towers: (Oh, and by the way, Trout has averaged one fewer stolen base per-162 games than Jose Altuve over the past two seasons.)

heath.cummings: I would expect Altuve steals five more bases, has an average 30 points higher, and he plays a position that is far less deep.

scott.white: So yeah ... best player of his generation, but let's not draft him first overall because his 25-30 steals won't be the most a first-rounder can give me. Sure, that makes sense. :face_with_rolling_eyes:

chris.towers: Alright, alright. I think it's crazy, Scott thinks it's crazy, but... Heath won't be moved.

heath.cummings: I'm demanding an impartial moderator next time

chris.towers: I make the rules, sorry!

Let's talk about someone you guys actually agree on: Paul Goldschmidt. Consensus No. 3 player! He's awesome! Averaged 30 HR, 104 RBI, 19 SB, 101 R, .304 average over the past five seasons. He's a five-category stud. And he plays in an awesome park!

Unless he doesn't. We still don't have a sense of what Chase Field is going to play like. Last summer, there was a ton of buzz about the Diamondbacks installing a Humidor to store the baseballs in. We've seen the offense-dampening effects that has had in Coors Field, and some research suggests we could see an even bigger dip in offense in Arizona.

Unfortunately, we have no idea if they are installing that for 2018. Have you factored that into your rankings? Should you? Does the uncertainty give you pause at all?

We expect an update on the humidor as we get closer to #DbacksOpeningDay.

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) January 31, 2018

heath.cummings: Not at all. So little of Goldschmidt's value is tied up in his home runs that I'm not going to make a big deal over one or two lost.

scott.white: Also the oldest of the probable first-rounders. Had a weird power dip in 2016. But I don't know, it's reaching with as well as he does so many things. The humidor data is so limited and was applied to such a loopy environment that I'm afraid of overreacting to it. Goldschmidt has typically performed well on the road. We'll see, but he feels pretty worry-free to me.

chris.towers: No worries about the Diamondbacks' offense in general scoring fewer runs? He's safe on the surface, but he also feels a little like Josh Donaldson did last season: Older than you think, and we saw how one nagging injury sapped his value.

scott.white: I'll put it this way: Every first-rounder other than Trout, Altuve and Arenado gives me reason to worry he'll fall short of first-round production. My concerns for Goldschmidt are near the bottom of that list, though.

heath.cummings: If we hear for sure they're installing the humidor, I'll drop him below Trout. Does that make you happy?

scott.white: That would make everybody happy.

chris.towers: Nothing would make me happier, Heath.

Let's stick with the first round – at least for one of you.

Scott!

Aaron Judge!

Not a first-rounder? He was arguably the best player in baseball a year ago! Explain yourself!

scott.white: Oh, you're with me on this. Heath's the outlier again.

chris.towers: (I didn't want him to feel ganged up on again)

heath.cummings: I'm pretty happy with it. I'll take the 45 percent hard contact rate and the 120 runs. Maybe he sees a little regression, but not enough to knock him out of the first round in Roto.

scott.white: OK, so in terms of strikeouts, Aaron Judge was one of the biggest offenders last year, so much that I feel like the .284 batting average is the absolute best-case scenario. Not worried about the power -- he makes incredibly hard contact -- but it's reasonable to assume 52 home runs is an outlier for anyone. My expectation for Judge is more like a .260 batting average and ... let's say 43 homers. Still great! Not a first-rounder.

(And that strikeout rate gives him an unusually low floor, too -- think Chris Davis.)

heath.cummings: If he hits .260 next year, he may only score 110 runs. But just how many hitters do you expect to have 40 HR,110 runs and 110 RBI this year?

(the answer last year was 2)

chris.towers: But those are the easiest categories to fill! Heath, you're knocking Mike Trout down below Altuve for steals and average... Judge might actively hurt you in one of those categories. And he might not help you at all in the other one.

scott.white: What I don't understand, Heath, is why Judge over Giancarlo Stanton, who not only may be the only player with more impressive exit velocities and power potential but also is *improving* as a contact hitter, to the point his strikeout rate isn't really a concern anymore?

heath.cummings: To be clear, I'm drafting Mike Trout ahead of Aaron Judge. So "knocking him down" is relative

chris.towers: Sure. Scott turns it around on Heath, so answer that one: Judge over Giancarlo. Why?

heath.cummings: Maybe all of Giancarlo Stanton's injuries were really freak injuries. Maybe last year's slashing of his K rate was real. But I am knocking Stanton (slightly) for his history in terms of PA, and I don't expect the drop in K rate to continue.

chris.towers: Fair. He's had a lengthy history of injuries. Only one season in the past three over 600 PA

On the other hand, the two seasons he's been over 600 PA, he's finished second and first in MVP voting. Pretty good.

scott.white: Even assuming Stanton misses one-third of the season, I feel much more confident it'll be a studly two-thirds.

(And that's a big assumption.)

chris.towers: OK, let's move on to one last player I think belongs in that Stanton-Judge category: J.D. Martinez.

(We'll discuss pitchers next time)

scott.white: Every year, there's a player who you know needs to be drafted in the first round or two, but you don't really know what to expect from him. And this year, that player, I think, is Martinez.

heath.cummings: Speaking of injury history.

chris.towers: Martinez has been a very similar hitter to Stanton over the past four seasons. He's played 23 more games than Stanton over that span, with an OPS .003 points lower. Why is Stanton so far ahead?

scott.white: You could make the case he was the best hitter in baseball last year, once he returned from the foot injury, but in the three years prior, while he was good, he wasn't *that.*

heath.cummings: Stanton is in one of the best parks in baseball in (arguably) the best lineup in baseball. Martinez is ??? 

chris.towers: You can say the same for Stanton, @scott.white.

scott.white: I guess if you just look at OPS, yeah, but Stanton has always been an outlier in home runs. And home runs are always the most valuable thing, even while not always the scarcest.

chris.towers: OK, Stanton had the edge on Martinez in homers before last season – averaged 44 per 162, vs. 36 for Martinez. But Martinez has been the better hitter for average, and has actually had a better injury history. If both stay healthy, is Stanton's upside that much higher?

scott.white: When you break down the OPS year by year, the norm for Stanton has typically been in the .950 range vs. .900 for Martinez.

And we're talking about a first-rounder in Stanton vs. a second-rounder in Martinez (for me). I think that makes sense. I just don't know whether Martinez ends up being more Marcell Ozuna or Giancarlo Stanton. Those are the potential outcomes to me. And some might say it's splitting hairs, but in shallower formats, it's really not.

heath.cummings: If Martinez signs with the Red Sox and gets to hit in Fenway, I might move him up a few spots in the second round. But no, I don't think his upside even in that great situation would be as high as Stanton's in Yankee Stadium.

chris.towers: (Even though Martinez was better last season.)

scott.white: Maybe he'll re-sign with Arizona, which would be great news. *Unless ...*

THE HUMIDOR

heath.cummings: Also, I have both Stanton and Martinez in the second round. So we're arguing over 10 spots in the rankings and two spots in the OF rankings

chris.towers: @heath.cummings what are we doing in Fantasy sports if not splitting hairs over and over and over?

Alright, that's fine. No respect for J.D. Martinez, the pride of Flanagan High School's 2006 Graduating Class -- after Chris Towers, of course. That's fine.

scott.white: Now I understand.

chris.towers: GO Falcons! CAW CAW

Ahem. Alright. Next week, we'll split hairs on some pitchers. See you then!

scott.white: (Heath's crazy.)

chris.towers: Fin.