2020 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: 10 sleepers for saves in Rotisserie and categories leagues
We all know who's in line for saves, but what about next in line? Scott White highlights some saves sleepers.
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Scott White
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1 min read
Saves is one of those categories that already gets outsized attention in Fantasy Baseball. The players who contribute them are generally only worthwhile because they contribute them, and they're scarce enough that we already know who is in line to contribute them.
The standard I've been using to define "sleeper" in these one-category sleeper columns is an ADP of 160 or later, according to FantasyPros, but several of the "known" closers are going beyond that point. I don't think it makes sense for me to call Jose Leclerc or Keone Kela a sleeper for saves when we all know the former is the Rangers closer and the latter is the Pirates closer.
So how would I define a saves sleeper? In some cases, it's the guy next in line for saves, particularly if it's a volatile closer situation. In other cases, it's an already designated closer whose saves potential nonetheless is underrepresented by ADP. Nobody is taking him seriously enough, in other words, and I find myself targeting him often as a result.
Sleepers for saves
It would be disingenuous not to put Will Smith here since he's clearly one of the non-closers with the best chance of becoming a closer, but considering he's going ahead of the Braves actual closer, Mark Melancon, Fantasy Baseballers might be a little too sanguine about that possibility. So does he have more sleeper potential or bust potential? It's a reasonable question to raise, but it's also worth noting he was a dynamite closer for the Giants last year and is the most talented reliever in the Braves bullpen.
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Giovanny Gallegos is another saves target who straddles the line between sleeper and bust, but the difference between him and Will Smith is that I think Fantasy Baseballers are playing his situation a little too cautiously. Gallegos was far and away the Cardinals' best reliever last year, and with Carlos Martinez back in the starting rotation, there's an opening in the closer role. Some worry the delay will allow Jordan Hicks a chance to reclaim the role, but the Cardinals wouldn't entrust it to him only 13 months removed from Tommy John surgery. Gallegos will get a foothold and potentially perform like a top-five reliever.
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Wait, two saves sleepers from the same team? Look, a sleeper is at best a 50-50 proposition. Fact is I'm even more likely to draft Mark Melancon than Will Smith because the cost is lower and I think his chances of retaining the role are actually pretty good. He used to be an elite closer for the Pirates and Nationals, remember, and seemed to recapture his pre-injury form in the second half last year, once again becoming an elite strike-thrower with extreme ground-ball tendencies. His stats during that time: a 2.93 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 10.0 K/9.
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The best thing about Seth Lugo is he's the sort of high-volume reliever who'll likely matter in Rotisserie leagues even if he ultimately isn't his team's choice for saves. The second-best thing about him is that we should know whether he's in line for saves sooner than later. Edwin Diaz's slider will either be fixed or it won't, leading to him either dominating or getting shellacked, and in the case of the latter, the guy who eventually claimed the role from him last year would step into it again.
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By all accounts, Brandon Kintzler is in line for saves for the Marlins, but he's not being drafted like he is. Presumably, it's because he doesn't fit the mold of a closer — as in a hard-throwing pitcher with big strikeout potential — but he never has and yet capably filled the role for the Twins in 2016 and 2017. He has a 3.37 ERA over the past four years and excels at home run prevention, so it's likely to me he'll be good enough to stick in the role. Might a better option emerge? Perhaps, but those things take time, which isn't a luxury teams have this year.
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Here's another case of a team's prospective closer going ahead of its actual closer, but since the cost is much lower, I'm more on board with targeting Scott Oberg than Will Smith. I also think Oberg will have a much easier time overtaking the incumbent Wade Davis and that he would already be the Rockies closer if he hadn't missed the final six weeks last year with a blood clot in his arm or if Davis wasn't still owed closer money.
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But ... isn't it possible Wade Davis could just stick in the role? Not if he pitches like he did last year, of course, but a pitcher with his track record is owed some benefit of the doubt. An oblique injury last year likely contributed to his struggles, and there were encouraging reports in spring training. Particularly in a year when you can't wait around for the cream to rise to the top, it might make sense just to take the guys you already know are in line for saves and see which ones pan out.
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The Orioles have yet to declare a closer for 2020 and in fact didn't all of last year either, but there were some rumblings during the initial spring training that Hunter Harvey, son of former All-Star closer Bryan Harvey, could get a look. Mychal Givens remains the presumptive favorite, but manager Brandon Hyde seems to prefer him in a versatile multi-inning role, which was why he was never truly the closer last year. Of course, there's still the question of how many save chances any closer would get for such a miserable team.
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The chances of Diego Castillo filling a full-time closer role for the Rays are pretty slim, but it's also presumptive to think Nick Anderson himself will. The most likely scenario might be a committee of some sort, and if so, Castillo would figure to be a big part of it. Of course, how many saves would a part-time closer actually get in a shortened season? Fair, but it would still matter to deep-leaguers, especially when you consider Castillo was looking like the top option before a shoulder impingement sidelined him midseason.
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Brewers manager Craig Counsell never wanted Josh Hader in the closer role, and the dominant lefty only ended up there because Corey Knebel fell victim to Tommy John surgery last spring. The delay means Knebel should be raring to go at the start of the season, when a change seems more likely than with Hader already cruising midseason. Knebel himself looked pretty dominant before the injury, compiling a 2.54 ERA with 14.7 K/9 in the two seasons prior.
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